What are the chances the Mets trade this guy this winter?

miniMCavatarMatthew Cerrone: I get asked a similar question everyday, which goes something like: “What are the chances the Mets trade so-and-so this winter?” I try to always give a semi-educated, mostly guesswork answer, based on the market, the team’s needs, how they talk about specific players, how other teams talk about that player, contract status, hype, hunch, etc.

I’ll try to update this once a month, but here’s where I stand today if asked what percentage chance I think exists that these specific players might get traded this off-season:

Player  Percent  Trend Last Guess
Daniel Murphy 50% - Oct. 21
Jon Niese 50% - Oct. 21
Dillon Gee 50% - Oct. 21
Bartolo Colon 40% - Oct. 21
Rafael Montero 40% - Oct. 21
Zack Wheeler 30% - Oct. 21
Kevin Plawecki 30% - Oct. 21
Travis d’Arnaud 30% - Oct. 21
Steven Matz 20% - Oct. 21
Noah Syndergaard 10% - Oct. 21
Wilmer Flores 10% - Oct. 21
Juan Lagares 0% - Oct. 21
Jacob deGrom 0% - Oct. 21


Brandon Nimmo cuts 2

Nimmo and LJ Mazzilli are making an impression in AFL

Mets prospects OF Brandon Nimmo and 2B L.J. Mazzilli drew the attention of minor league reporter Jessica Quiroli, who recently spent time taking notes at the Arizona Fall League (Minor League Ball, Oct. 21).

“Nimmo is that rare breed of focused aggression and intensity, mixed with patience and teachability,” she wrote. “And, while Mazzilli has the same kind of professionalism and maturity as Nimmo, Mazzilli’s is all pedigree, as the son of former major leaguer Lee.”

Nimmo, who ended his year in Double-A, is hitting .323 with a .447 OBP and three extra base hits in 31 at bats in the AFL.

MazzilliLJMazzilli, who ended his year in Triple-A, is batting .250, but with a .400 OBP in just 20 at bats.

Earlier this week, Mazzilli talked with SNY.TV’s Rob Brender for a Q&A about his time in the AFL, what he’s working on, where he expects to begin 2015 and being Lee’s son.

Robert Brender: What did you get out of the experience of spending the final couple of weeks of the season in Triple-A?

Lee Mazzilli Jr.: I noticed that everyone there was professional and they’re always talking about the game, whether it be in the clubhouse, on the bench or on the field. Everyone had an approach offensively. They always talked about the opposing pitchers, helping each other out. The biggest thing is really just executing in situations and slowing the game down, making it very simple. I also noticed that I belonged, too. I didn’t think I was overmatched at all or not ready. I definitely thought that, ‘Hey, this is what I’ve always set out to do.’ I realized I can handle it. Just have to keep working.

Robert Brender: Do you feel your best position is second base and what are you working on to improve your game defensively?

Lee Mazzilli, Jr.: Absolutely. I feel I can be a very good second baseman. I know the wrap on me is whether I can be a plus defender. For me, really, it’s just a matter of being consistent. I’ll have days where I’ll show I can possibly be a Gold Glover and then I’ll have days where people question if I can play second base. I just have to find a way to slow things down, which I did this year, and stay consistent. I think next year, knowing when to eat some throws, try to force a play, a double play, knowing a situation with a runner whose trying to come into the bag, little things like that will help me >> Read the full Q&A at Mets Minor League Blog.

Newsday: The Mets, the draft and waiting for the payoff

“We hopefully plan on being here for a while and really trying to do this right,” Paul DePodesta told Newsday’s Cory Derespina about his team’s draft strategy. “We’re not going to take a guy just because he might be the quickest mover to the big leagues.”

According to Derespina, Alderson appears to be executing a draft strategy that focuses on organizational areas of need rather than looking for a quick fix for his big-league roster >> Read more at Newsday.


In case you missed it on MetsBlog…

The Mets may have interest in pending free agent OF Nick Markakis >> Read more at MetsBlog

There has been additional talk that OF Yoenis Cespedes could be made available via trade >> Read more at MetsBlog

Matthew Cerrone believes that trade rumors will dominate the hot stove >> Read more at MetsBlog

Dave Magadan, who the Mets and several other teams are interested in as a hitting coach, will not be hired by the Yankees.

In an award voted on by the players, Jacob deGrom was named the National League Rookie of the Year by the Sporting News. The BBWAA will name their Rookie of the Year on November 1o.

Monday’s Arizona Fall League recap…

Mets outfield prospect Brandon Nimmo had another nice night Monday in Arizona, reaching base twice on a single and a walk. He also drove in his fifth run.

The 21-year-old has at least one hit in seven of his eight AFL games, with a .333 batting average, three extra base hits and six walks.

Trade rumors are going to dominate the Hot Stove

miniMCavatarMatthew Cerrone: The Cubs, D-Backs, Red Sox and Reds match up best for a trade with the Mets, according to researcher and writer Mark Simon (ESPN, Oct. 16).

For instance, Simon explains, the Cubs have have shortstops Starlin Castro, Javier Baez and Addison Russell and they are in need of young starting pitchers; while the Red Sox and Reds have outfielders to deal, such as Yoenis Cespedes and Jay Bruce. Similarly, in addition to having SS Didi Gregorius, Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings to trade, Arizona’s front office of Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart, as well as new manager Chip Hale, all have a positive history working with Alderson.

That said, it doesn’t seem Stewart is interested in doing a lot of trading this winter, even though any one of his three young shortstops could be used to acquire a starting pitcher, according to local reporter Nick Piecoro (AZ Republic, Oct. 9).

“You’re not getting back Matt Harvey or Jacob deGrom,” one scout told Piecoro, “but maybe you get back Rafael Montero,” he said, in regards to deal for Gregorious, Ahmed or Owings.

The thing is, according to Arizona insiders, I’ve heard that if they’re going to trade anyone it’ll be Gregorious, who has never been tops on Alderson’s list. And, at this point, it can be argued that Wilmer Flores is a better overall option.

MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

In regards to the Cubs, despite speculation from fans and media, MLB Network’s Peter Gammons has said many times that he doesn’t think the two teams will ever see eye to eye on a deal swapping pitching for hitting (MLB.com, Aug. 19). Chicago reporter Mark Gonzalez made a similar comment to SNY’s Mostly Mets Podcast this past summer (SNY.TV, Aug. 19).

In addition to the teams mentioned above by Simon, I’ve been told by MLB insiders to also keep an eye on the Rockies, Mariners, Dodgers and Angels, as it pertains to matching up with the Mets.

The Mets and Mariners talked early and late last off season, but nothing ever materialized. The two teams continued scouting one another deep in to March. For instance, last winter, the Mets offered Jon Niese to the Mariners for SS Brad Miller, but a deal never worked out, Gammons told MLB Network (MLB.com, Aug. 19). Nevertheless, Gammons said, because Miller is now on the bench, he could easily see him getting moved in a less-costly deal. The Mets and Mariners also reportedly talked about a deal for 22-year-old 2B-SS Nick Franklin, dating as far back as the Winter Meetings, according to a team insider (ESPN NY, Feb. 24). It was later reported that the Mariners were likely to deal Franklin before Opening Day (ESPN NY, Feb. 20), but he started the season with their Triple-A team.

“The Mets and Blue Jays have also made deals in the past, and though Jose Bautista might be too much to ask for, the Mets have the resources to give it their best shot,” he concludes.

MLB: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays

I would love to see the Mets get Bautista, who will earn $14 million next year with a team option for 2016. It’s my understanding that the Mets checked in on him a few times last winter, as did other teams, but Toronto was (and probably still is) looking for a straight salary dump, while acquiring a big-league ready, front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Also, I think it will be more difficult for these teams to hook up than people think, since they just swapped top prospects for a Cy Young winner a few years ago, and that will undoubtedly make for a weird negotiation.

In the end, I still don’t think Alderson will cave and overpay for Baez or Castro, or even Bautista or Bruce. Instead, I think there is a a far better chance he makes a less obvious deal using Niese, Kevin Plawecki, Montero, etc., for someone out of Boston, Seattle or Arizona. In any case, the Mets have one of best – if not the best – young pitching staffs in baseball. There is a deal to be made with any one of these teams, but I don’t expect either team to make a move just for the sake of doing something. It’s going to take work to find a match.

Dave Magadan

Yankees will not name Dave Magadan hitting coach

The Mets and Yankees have contacted Dave Magadan about their vacancy at hitting coach, he told the New York Post.1

Magadan was scheduled to meet with Yankees GM Brian Cashman on Wednesday in New York to discuss the job that opened when former hitting coach Kevin Long was fired.7

Update – Oct. 20: Magadan will not be the Yankees hitting coach, he’s been told. 8

Magadan is considered the front runner for the hitting coach vacancy with Oakland. 9

Magadan served as hitting coach for the Padres and Red Sox before joining the Rangers, who are allowing all of their coaches to talk to other teams in the wake of firing their manager. He was drafted by the Mets in 1983 and played in the big leagues for them from 1986 though 1992. He hit .288 with a .390 OBP over 16 seasons in MLB.

The Mets are also among teams to talk by phone with and show interest in hiring Longaccording to a league source.2

“I’ve gotten calls from a lot of teams,” Long said, who is also drawing interest from the Braves, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Brewers, Pirates and D-Backs.4 Long was fired last week by the Yankees after being their hitting coach for seven years.

“The effort was sufficient. The results just weren’t,” Brian Cashman said this past weekend when announcing Long’s dismissal.5

It was reported in May that Curtis Granderson, who played four years under Long, and several teammates were using his ‘Home Run Drill’ during pre-game warm ups.6

The Mets fired their hitting coach Dave Hudgens in May. Lamar Johnson was named interim coach as his replacement, but was dismissed at the end of the season and offered a different job in the organization.

Sources: 1 King & Sherman, Oct. 14 | 2 Ehalt, Oct. 10 | 4 Feinsand, Oct. 13 | 5 Lennon, Oct. 11 | 6  MetsBlog, May 19 | 7 New York Post, Oct. 16 | 8 McCarron, Oct. 20 | 9 Slusser, Oct. 20