Why doesn’t anyone want Stephen Drew?

Free agent SS Stephen Drew is ‘perfectly healthy,’ according to a person familiar with the situation (Bradford, Jan. 7).

Drew’s market may be depressed due concerns about his medical report, a team official recently said (Martino, Jan. 7).

Stephen DrewThe Mets and Red Sox have been most connected to Drew in reports since the Winter Meetings. However, the Mets are reluctant to lock in to Drew beyond 2014 (Cerrone, Jan. 6).

Today, in a post for FanGraphs.com, Jeff Sullivan does a nice job explaining Drew’s market, writing:

“Right now, a claim can’t be made that a team needs Stephen Drew. He’d help the Red Sox a little, but he’d make a very small impact on their overall chances, so there’s no need to pay much for his services. Drew would help the Mets by maybe a win or two, but that might just help them lock up third place in the NL East, trailing the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves in some order. That improvement isn’t valueless, but the Mets needn’t pay market price, since this isn’t supposed to be a championship season. And the difference between Drew and Tejada would presumably be smaller in 2015, when Harvey is expected to return.”

In a poll on MetsBlog on Jan. 6, 2014, 51 percent — of more than 8,000 voters — said they would give Drew a two-year deal, with only four percent willing to go to a three-year contract.




297 comments
TurkWendell4Life
TurkWendell4Life

2 years 45 million to lock up Drew. Get it done Sandy boy.

Mike Dell Italia
Mike Dell Italia

I'm sooo sick of this WAR stat, I see u guys sayin u don't want a guy who is cleary better then the current alternative bc their wars are similar hahahahah it's comical

mets2014
mets2014

I wonder if the mets could offer drew a one year deal with the stipulation that they will not offer him a qualifying offer at the end of the season thus giving him more value as a free agent...that would give the mets the opportunity to trade for a young SS and/or try to sign one next offseason which will clearly have a better SS class all while having a better SS for 2014 in drew

Mike Dell Italia
Mike Dell Italia

if the mets were cool they would get drew morales and cruz, but there not.  These guys would cost around 25 mil, and our payroll would be like 110 115, a normal payroll for a big market team.

vipregan
vipregan

Simple Answer: Stephen Drew sucks.

Poop-a-doodle-doo!
Poop-a-doodle-doo!

Windchill of 5 below zero in New York today...pitchers and catchers report in 6 weeks!!

sylow59
sylow59

You're telling me that in the past 18 hours there has not been one single tweet worthy of a link?

AJF
AJF

Where is the Ike Davis update?

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

Can we please stop with the Ruben Tejada love affair. I was just looking at the Bleacher Report listing of best defensive SS and I saw Drew but no mention of Tejada. Besides the fact that there's not a baseball person alive who would take Tejada over Drew. I'm not saying Drew is a superstar or is going to make them into a WS contender. But he's better, hands down. Both offensively and defensively. Not a question. And don't give me the injury issue (not like Tejada has been Cal Ripken) or that Tejada is only 24. He's been in the league for 4 years already and shown no signs of being anything other than he is. A punch and judy hitter with no speed and no power and a below average defensive shortstop. 

And enough with the 2015 FA class. Would I rather have JJ Hardy? Sure! Obviously Ramirez and Hardy are better than Drew. But do you really think the Mets will get them? As others have done a great job on this blog of detailing all of these "options", you are either getting an older, or someone no better than Drew or MUCH higher cost! And that assumes they even get them! Considering the Yankees, etc will be in the market for SS. 

So assuming you can get Drew on a two year deal around 10M per (just guessing and picking a number) he only costs you money and a third round draft pick. When someone like a Hardy or Ramirez type who is going to cost you twice as much in years and dollars AND potentially a first round draft pick? And again that's assuming you even get them. And they will have to overpay those premium guys and potentially get themselves into a bad contract in the last couple of years of it that will cripple the team again. In comparison Drew is a two year deal for less money.

And where is the money coming from to pay them? The only significant contract that falls off after this year is C Young. And Grandy's increase next year and expected arbitration raises will wipe that out. Drew's money is going to be hard to handle for that reason alone, let alone one of these premium guys. Oh I get it. The Wilpons are going to dramatically increase payroll next year!

dabo
dabo

Drew's numbers are just better than Tejada's projected number, but the cost of Drew is what is stopping the signing.  I think if Drew was cheaper then he would already be a Met.  Until his price drops considerably then Tejada is our starting SS and I think we will be happy with this during the season.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@mets2014I'd much rather offer him more money for 1 year and be able to add a qualifying offer than sign him cheaper without it. 


But it could be a good option (where when the mets aren't in it come the trade deadline he could be moved for a Prospect in return.

metstastic
metstastic

@mets2014Why won't he want a QO? It's $14M+? He will never that on a one year deal.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@Mike Dell ItaliaAnd the team would still be a borderline Playoff team because these guys are superstars who transform a team. 


That's why they are sitting out there as FA. Drew + Morales would be +2-4 WAR for the current mets team... So you looking at best case scneario 85 wins.

YAY 25 mil more, plus long term commitments to miss the playoffs.


Last year Drew (3.4) + Morales (1.2) =  4.6 WAR. 

Mets SS (collectively)-.1 WAR 1st (collectively) 1.4 = 1.3 WAR. 


Now just using STEAMER projections for 2014 in fangraphs Drew = 2 WAR Morales (not playing 1st full time) 1.6 = 3.6 WAR

Tejada(1.6) Duda(.3)/Satin(.1)/Davis(1.4)=1.8 so in total = 3.4.... So your spending 25 million to net yourself POSSIBLY 1 more win.

BringBackDaveTelghe
BringBackDaveTelghe

@Tarheel11 In Tejada's best years he was just a tick above average at D...He has a ways to go to even get back to that meager level.

happy hank
happy hank

@Tarheel11  just look around MLB there are alot of teams who have established SS, alot of teams who have SS coming up to MLB this year and there are SS log jams.the Yankees might need a SS next year and the Dodgers too but that's it there are no other teams in need of that position just look around at other clubs. the Mets can get an elite player like Hardy or get a great young cheap kid why settle. MLB is Flush with a plethora of SS why settle for league average with so many different possibility's out there. it's about supply and demand and next year or at the deadline this year or hopefully before spring the Mets could get better then Drew. the Mets have an 8 hitter in Lagares and an 8 hitter probably for 2014 but hopefully not beyond in d'Arnaud. do the Mets really want yet another 8 hitter in Drew. wouldn't u rather wait and get an established star or a toolsy kid making nothing so u can allocate funds somewhere else. signing drew dose not just tie up the Mets with mediocrity for atleast 2 years at SS. it also precludes them from spending to fix other holes in the roster. 10-15 million a year for mediocrity is way too much.

Olerud42
Olerud42

@dabo How much does Tejada make anyway?  I'd guess they'd rather pay basically nothing for 0 WAR than $14 mil per for an average SS, fortunately or unfortunately (the latter, in my opinion)

mets2014
mets2014

@metstastic@mets2014 I would imagine he would be more interested in a long term deal...if your point was true then why did he decline the QO this year?  In my scenario there would no draft pick compensation tied to any long term deal he would sign thus making him more desirable to interested teams

Mike Dell Italia
Mike Dell Italia

A lineup of Drew murph wright grandy Cruz morales tda legares is worlds better then the current projected one , plus our bench would be ey cy satin tejeda, I mean come one man w our pitchin if tda and legarus give u anything major league avg were talkin ab a 90 win team

Mike Dell Italia
Mike Dell Italia

I really don't care ab war, war means nothing to me all 3 guys that I mentioned are better then the alternative, plus no long term commitment is involved w these guys are sitting out there for a while now won't warrant long term deals especially drew and morales and I think these are out there so long bc the big market teams are not going after these guys.

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

@Mark Kelly @Mike Dell Italia Not that I am a big fan of the Mets signing Morales but aren't you distorting the numbers a bit? I'm guessing your analysis above is assuming Duda/Satin/Davis all split 1b/dh? Well if I go to STEAMER, yes your WAR numbers are correct for these 3 players but that's based on 203 games played and 864 plate appearances. Doesn't that fact kind of distort your numbers a bit?

sylow59
sylow59

... 18 hours and counting

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

@happy hank @Tarheel11 And you really think Hardy or Ramirez is coming to the Mets? And what do you think those guys will cost? And length of contract? They are going to be at minimum 4-5 years minimum. And much more money per. And then by the end of that contract they will be mid 30's and we are starting to see how players in this era don't offer up the same stats at that age. Plus the fact that you have potentially given up a first round draft pick. And how are they going to pay them? 

And with this plethora of young SS's, who are they going to trade for? Didi? Come on! Anyone worth having is going to cost you a Thor type pitcher. You really going to give that up? 

Plus you are going into this year with a sub par SS and assuming you get something next year. What happens when you don't? 

I'm not saying Drew is an all star. But considering the situation he is falling into the Met's lap. And no he's not a Hardy or Ramirez but he is a legit MLB SS. And his offense is much better than the average SS. Compare him to SS's not other positions. And I don't even like Drew! But given the market and what we have he's the best option.  

lindro88
lindro88

Somehow Drew has turned into a borderline all star on this board. Same people who are clamoring for him, will be killing him

dabo
dabo

@Olerud42 @dabo I think if a better SS with better talent were to be available then the Mets would have signed that player.  Why pay for steak when you only get ground beef?

metstastic
metstastic

@mets2014The attaching of losing draft picks to those that declined QOs have really screwed up the market. Like Bourne, they are signing later when a team gets desperate closer to spring training.

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

@metstastic @Tarheel11 @Mike Dell Italia Beg to differ. To a degree you can. If a team has a big offseason they get an immediate short term push for tickets (season tickets). It's not a sustained increase until they start winning. However, your odds increase if you spend more

metstastic
metstastic

@Mike Dell ItaliaDrew is not the player that will make us a 90 win team.. LOL.. If he was that player, he would have been signed already.. As is, we are only a 80ish win team (if all things break our way).

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

@Mike Dell Italia I'd sign for that team in a heartbeat! A pipedream with these owners though! But you're right, I don't see how they can try to run a NY team on 85M. I still say go to 115m-120m and it would probably offset itself just with the increased attendance. Fans would be excited to go see that team.

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

@Mike Dell Italia That's the frustrating thing. You have a perfect window where they are lucky that no big market team needs them so they don't have to fight them. They can be locked in for lower money and less years and are at the end of the day better players. 

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

@Mark Kelly @Tarheel11 @Mike Dell Italia I hear ya about Morales. I'm not a fan of the guy. Although I do think he'd be more of an improvement offensively than you think he'll be, I also think his defense would probably be an aberration at first. And as a fan I am so sick and tired of Davis/Duda/Satin. 

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@Tarheel11@Mark Kelly@Mike Dell Italia

To degree using them isn't apples to apples because of the games played, but along with guys not playing positions they rank them.


But it's also putting negative weight to DUDA's fielding because of his historically bad number in LF, where he won't be playing, and Josh Satin's 3 year projection isn't there so he's getting a .1 where he had a 1.3 in short playing time last year (probably a 1 WAR in platoon is possible).. and Positively factoring in Defense around Morales because he was playing DH mostly. Also includes morales's first year back form his horrific injury. 


When it's all said and done the point is a platoon of Satin/Ike/Duda would most likely be as good as Kendry morales offensively in terms of OBP& Slugging where Kendry would be an improvement would be in batting average... Additionally that platoon would be much better defensively. 

It was more to point out that while morales is a big name...  People remember Morales of 2009, not Morales of 2013. Simiarly people want to remember DREW of 2013 &10 not drew of 2012, 2011, 2009


So if you asked me to add one of Kendry or Drew i'll take drew... if you asked me at the money your spending (25 mil) i'd say NEITHER. 


I'm good with a drew signing with a 2 year 20 mil commitment (Thrilled if its a 1 year deal).... Want no part of Morales.. unless he's taking a 1 year 5 mil deal with a team option for next year.



metstastic
metstastic

@Tarheel11The foundation of young pitching is getting there. The hope is.. This will lead to more wins, more attendance and eventually a bigger budget.

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

@metstastic @Tarheel11 @happy hank Very true! It's just scary because if you look at the payroll for next year, the increases in Niese's, Colon and Grandy's contracts offsets C Young's money this year so they are in worse position next year than this year. Not to mention arb. increases and fact that then they will need another OF. And the budget restraints are not allowing SA to go fill the holes he has. 

metstastic
metstastic

@Tarheel11@metstastic@happy hankI don't know that they will, but I just don't want the signing of Drew to block the POTENTIAL of signing a Hanley or Hardy. If Drew is signed to more than a 1 year deal, there is a ZERO chance.. Otherwise, there is at least a glimmer of hope.

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

@metstastic @Tarheel11 @happy hank You're right. I don't know that they won't. Just like you don't know they will. But please tell me what logic tells you they will? Take a look at their payroll for the last 3 years. Take into account all the money they owe MLB as well as the banks. Now tell me what logic tells you they are going to go sign a 100M player? I hope I'm wrong but logic tells you ain't happening! Especially when nothing is coming off. 

metstastic
metstastic

@Tarheel11@happy hankYou don't know that they can't afford it. They just don't want to spend it.. You can bet your money that if the Mets were one player away that the WIlpons' would probably open up their pocketbooks. Fact is, they are not... and Drew would be a foolish signing. 


Tarheel11
Tarheel11

@happy hank @Tarheel11 Absolutely not 15M on Drew. I'm saying 10M max. My point is they can't afford 15-20 per for the others. As well as the fact that you're probably looking at a min. 5 year deal. And off the top of my head, the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies come to mind. Big market teams. And I brought up Didi because everyone does on this site and I agree I wouldn't give up a Thor for any of them. But that's the rub. Drew costs you less money, less years, less of a draft pick loss. Yes he's less of a player but he doesn't stop you from spending down the road because you're locked into a 20M contract on someone else

happy hank
happy hank

@Tarheel11 so u really want 10-15 million per year of Drew rather then 15-20 million of Hardy or Ramirez. and it's not that do i really think they will come to the Mets where else are they going to go where are the teams in need of a SS alot of teams have to many. and if u think Thor a top 10 MLB prospect is worh Didi ur nuts he is worth more then Didi and Owings put together. i'm not saying that cuase he is a Met i'm saying that cause he is a top 10 prospect and DiDi prospect shine has turned dull and Owings was not even a top 100 prospect.

happy hank
happy hank

@lindro88 so let me get this right Drew is a borderline Drew all-star and his 2012 and 2011 seasons did not happen. only his last year numbers count. also he was never injured. but somehow Murphy is average and  Drew is not how? could someone explain that to me.

dabo
dabo

@Olerud42 @dabo you would really be in favor of signing Drew for 14 mil over  3-5 years?