Why do the Mets have a .421 winning percentage at home since 2011?

Matthew Cerrone, Lead Writer

The Mets start a nine-game road trip Tuesday night that will take them through Atlanta, Los Angeles and Arizona in nine days, and this may actually be a good thing. Why? They have a .502 winning percentage (122-121) on the road since 2011, but a .421 winning percentage at home during that same time.

“If there was something concrete to put your hands on, we would have found it,” David Wright said (Wall Street Journal, Apr. 8). “I’m not sure there is anything concrete that you can say, ‘Hey, this is the reason.’”

It is pretty crazy. “#MetsRadio” host James Flippin and I talked about this during his podcast yesterday, which you can listen to here. Basically, no one has the answer. Is it the wind patterns or dimensions in Citi Field? Is it pregame media obligations? Travel to the ballpark? Resources at the ballpark? Bullpen management late in games? Last at bat? Bad luck? Who knows?


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It is maddening, though, especially when realizing how much more successful these last few years could have been if they had just played better in their own ballpark. I mean, an average home record last season would have meant a .500 season and a Wild Card run.

In an effort to improve at home, the team is trying to mimic conditions and routines on the road, such as changing their pregame menu and eating times, (Wall Street Journal, Apr. 8).




219 comments
Bryan McEntee
Bryan McEntee

I'd like to see their record broken down by month. I bet its far worse in the 2nd half than the 1st. I would say that's because when your tired and worn down by the season its much harder to hit it out of a park with deep fences. Bring the fences in and offense will increase. The supposed super rotation next year should be able to handle it

Robert Konigsberg
Robert Konigsberg

very simple. the field is still too deep and the fences need to be brought in more. it is in the players heads and it is bad for the fans also. change it for next season. also it would add some seats. a true home run for everyone.

cver
cver

Nothing's for certain, but I don't think this is rocket science:

1. The fans will boo your ass if you fail, so there is a ton of pressure and lack of support - short leash.  This is way worse for those struggling.


2. Possible lack of focus and sleep because of media obligations, family, etc.


3. The ballpark very well might have them psyched out and could be having an actual negative effect, besides the mental side.

steve333
steve333

They need to get Citi off the name of the park.

Rename it Metropolitan Field.


The name is a jinx

Anthony Giammattei
Anthony Giammattei

Because Mr. Met has some bad mojo, messin' around behind Mrs. Met's back!

tigerinblu
tigerinblu

because our players suck? that could be why...

mets41
mets41

they don't have the players to play in that park

John Ericson
John Ericson

yeah that's the solution.  menu's and eating times.  But, not say....I don't know, bringing in talent?

hankypanky
hankypanky

How odd. The opposition loves this park and its dimensions.

Haig Mathosian
Haig Mathosian

This isn't rocket science.....they're not a good team, that's why !!!!

brmets
brmets

Outfield defense.

port
port

The answer is rather easy. When you have a big park you need to emphasize outfield defense and team speed. These are two areas that have been neglected by Alderson. We should be fielding a team similar to the Cardinals of the 80's where power was not important but rather defense and speed.

Brooxy
Brooxy

@metsblog when you don't slug you have to hit even more with risp and the mets don't do either. and thats if they even get on base ever.

Brooxy
Brooxy

@metsblog look up mets slug% and then opponents slug% at citi and there's your answer.

Steven G
Steven G

In a word - STRESS. Our home field should feel friendly to the players, ie, like home. Instead, every hole in the line-up becomes glaringly obvious, every mistake is magnified, the home-town fans turn on a player and boo in an instant, and a player has microphones/cameras in their face to discuss their play as soon as the game is over. Plus the line-up is so offensively challenged that every failure to get on base becomes the turning point of a game, and I would guess that most of our guys are trying too hard, rather than just playing the game.

I know, these guys are paid well to deal with this, but really, who could perform at their best under these circumstances?

Bob G
Bob G

Are these posts by Matt really necessary? Why do the Mets win more or less when three yellow birds fly within 100 yards of Citi Field? Who really cares at this point. These statistics are meaningless unless this is a playoff bound team. Then if they played .600 on the road and .400 at home the question would be worth pondering. Otherwise it's a complete waste of time. Why did the Mets lose three straight to Washington and then win two out of three against the Reds. DOESN'T MATTER!

joeknix
joeknix

Why do the Mets not have a winning record at home since 2011?  Payroll.  It's gone down every year since 2011 when it was at 120M and now it's at 89M. The Mets are 22nd in MLB baseball out of 30 teams and are being outspent by the likes of the Padres, Royals, and Brewers. 


More specifically, we go into the offseason KNOWING our biggest need was to fix SS and guess what . . . Tejeda is still our starting SS.  He's not the only problem but it's indicative of how bad the money situation is with the Wilpons at the helm.  We don't make ANY trades and Drew is still sitting out there and all it takes is money and a 3rd round pick to get him and STILL we do nothing. 



Because Citi Field doesn't really feel like "home" It's Wilpons bizarre tribute the Ebbets Field, someplace no Mets fan feels any sort of special connection and reverence for. I walk into Citi Field and see a Jackie Robinson rotunda. The heck does that have to do with the Mets? Let the Dodgers be the keepers of Robinsons flame...not us. Or let Fred build something in Brooklyn (where the man actually played). When I see the Ebbets like exterior and Rotunda it dampens my spirits and makes me feel like I'm not in the Mets home.


I don't think the dimensions are really a problem, they walls have been moved in and are more fair (and really it was only year 1 that really messed with Wrights head, when he dropped to 10hr's)


The place just doesn't "feel" like home. The Mets used to be all about what's new and fresh (believe it or not Shea embodied that at one point) so why are we playing in some retro Ebbets?


Look at the exterior of Target Field. THAT'S WHAT CITI SHOULD LOOK LIKE. Only with Blue and Orange and maybe updated neon players on the outside. Plus it would fit in better with the redevelopment around it.


To me it's all psychological. Especially with the fans, it doesn't look and feel like home. I mean even in the lean years 15,000 at She would make more noise than 22,000 at citi (if we can even get that) there is just no energy in the place

Anthony Giammattei
Anthony Giammattei

Because the whole organization has a negative vibe.  From ownership down to the fans, to the bat boy.  When they're home it seeps in more.

D
D

Because they tore down their one and only true home- SHEA

TheJMan
TheJMan

How about the stress from a fanbase that groans every time you make an out 

more plausible than wind patterns

 

Bill Rifkin
Bill Rifkin

It is not a mystery. It is math. By statistical analysis (chi square) the difference in road vs. home winning percentage over the 2011-2013 is simply due to chance. (P value not less than 0.05). If the trend continues for this year, the P value (measure of how likely the observed difference is due to chance) will likely be less than .05, meaning we could then say "this is likely a real thing". For now, I would simply say since there are an unlimited number of ways of slicing and dicing numbers, some weird patterns will be seen. This doesn't mean it is real. An example would be to look at their record on night Wednesday vs. Day Saturdays and if there is a difference, struggle with "why". 

Patrick Boegel
Patrick Boegel

Is it the wind patterns?


REALLY!?!?!??!  Are you serious?

ametfanincanada
ametfanincanada

Why didn't Maggie write this article?.She could have told us with verifiable numbers why they lose at home so often.

John Ferretti Jr.
John Ferretti Jr.

I think there is actually a pretty clear answer to this.

THE METS DO EVERYTHING BACKWARDS!

They built a stadium tailor made for jose reyes but a homerun killer to David Wrights power alley (right center).  They then let Reyes go and kept Wright....like I said, backwards!

Their record at home from 2009-2011 (Reyes left after 2011) was 122-121.  See the difference?

BTW, I know Reyes is on the DL, but can we all agree that letting him go was a mistake?  They cant find a lead off hitter or a short stop.  He was both....and home grown.  What a bad mistake!

boodge106
boodge106

@Haig Mathosian  It's not rocket science that bad teams play equally bad, if not worse,  on the road.  The Mets play .500 baseball on the road.  If they had a fan base that actually supported them when they come to play their home games at Citi Field, rather than booing them on Opening Day and every time they strike out, they would most likely play dramatically better at home.

boodge106
boodge106

@port  Are you talking about over the past several seasons, or this season?  This offseason outfield defense and speed is exactly what Alderson addressed.  It was lacking in past seasons though.

boodge106
boodge106

I agree. 100%. I'm not sure why this isn't realized by many fans. They think that they are sticking it to the owners by booing players they feel are under performing, but in reality the relentless booing and negativity is just furthering the underperformance of the players. I know this happens at other ballparks, but nowhere near to the degree that it does with this fan base. It does not mean these players are "soft" because they are adversely affected by this, particularly when it is occurring on a daily basis. The fact that they make a lot of money is irrelevant, and does not improve the reasoning behind this backwards ritual this fan base loves to employ. There is no pleasing some of these "fans." A guy could hit a home run in his first at bat, but if he strikes out his next at bat the boo birds are coming out? It's ridiculous. I won't even address the booing of players at opening day ceremonies, but I do find it atrocious. And I'm sure guys like David wright know that this issue is a huge reason behind their lack of success at home, but he's not going to come out and say it publicly because he actually has some class and tact (some people should take notes). The sad part is, I don't see this changing soon even if the team is playing well this season. They will still think that booing the players and constantly expressing negative things about the team is going to get rid of the Wilpons (or whatever their alterior motive actually is).

boodge106
boodge106

If this was the primary issue, it would also be reflected in their road record. A team does not play worse at home than on the road because their payroll isn't high enough, that doesn't make sense. See my posts above if you want to know why I think they underperform at home.

ken1010
ken1010

 The first time I went to Citifield, the year it opened, I had mezzanine deck seats, and I took an elevator up to them.

When I got there, and the elevator door opened into the lounge, someone in front of me exclaimed, "Wow, it's just like a Marriott."  

I'm sure it's a fine place for Bar Mitzvah's, and it's a very comfortable place to watch a ballgame.  I kind of like Citifield, but it's not a place that encourages passionate fans to focus on the game.  It encourages spending on concessions, which perhaps was the plan.

TheJMan
TheJMan

@Patrick Boegel No seriously.. it's crazy.. no one can understand why--bigfoot, where is hoffa and where are the Mets wins at home ... all valid unanswered questions puzzling the world

and it's a wonder this team stinks

mags328
mags328

@John Ferretti Jr.  This is so true. It really does feel like this organization does everything backwards or wrong. Even when Fred Wilpon tried to get sympathy votes back when he did that interview a few years ago, so he could come across as more sympathetic, he still screws it up by saying completely unnecessary things like Wright isn't a superstar (which is true, but he shouldn't be saying it) and a few other poorly choiced comments. And so instead of getting people to relate to him, he winds up making things worse. And that's just one of so many examples.

nwmets
nwmets

@John Ferretti Jr.  I agree, but this is now ancient history. And clearly Reyes has some chronic hamstring problems. I feel really bad for the guy -- but if he was here, he'd be on the DL as well.

port
port

In the past.

boodge106
boodge106

Also, the Mets not being competitive the past few seasons is not the only reason we have to beg free agents to sign with us. If given a choice, would you rather play for a team in which you know you will receive support from the fan base, or a team in which your failures are magnified to an insane level and you can't strike out without being heckled? I think the choice is obvious.

@ken1010  yes, likely. A lot of the new stadiums feel that way. The New Yankee Stadium feels like an airport terminal/mall. I actually like Citizens Bank Park despite my hatred for the Phillies. they got the ballpark thing down a bit better than us (plus you can see the city lights from beyond the outfield fence)


I remember how dismayed I was when citi opened. The field looked so dark. Huge deep BLACK walls? Dark seats. Seemed so un-Mets.

TheJMan
TheJMan

@John Ferretti Jr. koolaid?

i am more of a critic than you will ever be guy.. read below

but that doesn't give baby mets fans a pass -- they are impossible to please and they whine whine and whine


not saying some of it is not without merit but they have ZERO room for error and give this team no room to breath


that's a fact--as much as a fact as how crappy this team is constucted

John Ferretti Jr.
John Ferretti Jr.

Probably....but quite frankly, 100 games of reyes and 62 of what they have is better than 162 of what they have.

Citizens bank is almost an exact replica of Citifield  @ken1010

boodge106
boodge106

@John Ferretti Jr.  This is a frustrating conversation. Whether Ruben Tejada enjoys being booed is irrelevant.  The fact is that Citi Field is a hostile environment for the home players, probably moreso than any ballpark in baseball.  This exponentially contributes to the individual players' underperformance at home.  Until fans break the habit of knee jerk reaction booing every time a player makes an out, it will be impossible for this team to play well at home.

boodge106
boodge106

And it is precisely this mentality that is why no free agent wants to sign here. No baseball player wants to play 81 games per year in a hostile environment. So yes, incessantly booing the players does compound the problem dramatically.

John Ferretti Jr.
John Ferretti Jr.

Well, I agree in part.  I will not spend one cent on this team until they spend....so I just dont go.  I also agree that booing doesnt help the players perform better.

That said, the people who do buy tickets, are within their right to boo.  it isnt against the rules.  These players know what they are signing up for by playing in NYC.  grow thicker skin or go home.

cj1786
cj1786

@John Ferretti Jr.Your missing the point man.... you say "I just feel at this point fans have the right to groan, not go etc." Not go, yes. thats fine. Groan?  No, thats not acceptable..  Because when you go to the game and groan or boo at the players you are misdirecting your anger.  Why are you angry at the players if they are out there playing hard.   If you are ticked at the front office for the way they build the team, don't buy the darn ticket.  That's alot more productive than still buying the ticket and then subsequently taking it out on the wrong party by moaning and groaning at the players.  Fans like you just compound the problem.  The players would much rather play in front of no fans than a bunch of home fans who moan and groan. 

TheJMan
TheJMan

@John Ferretti Jr. you're a dimwit

you're like the same guy i've read on here for years saying how much reyes was better than jeter

John Ferretti Jr.
John Ferretti Jr.

So Ruben Tejada doesnt enjoy hearing boo's...who cares?  There is very little on this roster who I care if they are "enjoying" their time playing at citi field....they stink....and they would stink with a full house of cheering fans or an empty house or a full house of booing fans.  They stink and its unacceptable and thats not on the fans its on management and ownership....period.

TheJMan
TheJMan

@John Ferretti Jr.
I get it dude.. I want the Wilpons gone and Sandy has done a below average job

But Mets fans are embarrassment sometimes and it's been far worse since the 2007 collapse

And I am right there lambasting this organization especially considering how much time I invest


but don't sit there and disagree with me that maybe the players don't enjoy playing in front of a fan base that groan and boo them at every out
and that is more plausible at their lack of success at home than wind patterns...

it's a bit of truth dude.. not kool-aid

John Ferretti Jr.
John Ferretti Jr.

I dont know...Didnt the Mets draw over 3 million fans in 2007 and 2008?  I think the Met fans have been patient enough.

Now Sandy had us sold that 2014 was the year all the money was coming off the books.  I heard him on Francessa last year saying "100 million payroll." ( not that 100 mill is even good enough but its better).

I just feel at this point fans have the right to groan, not go etc....they have simply lied and abused us for too long.