What would a Duda/Satin platoon look like at first base?

This post originally appeared on Dec. 19, 2013…

Maggie Wiggin, Contributor

The most likely scenario for the Mets at first base going into next season is some combination of the left-handed Lucas Duda and the right-handed Josh Satin.

Duda and Satin have pronounced handedness splits, putting up far better numbers against pitchers who throw with the opposite hand, so – in order to maximize the production from that position – Terry Collins should use the two players in a relatively strict platoon based on the opposing pitcher.

The ratio of right-handed and left-handed pitchers in the league varies a bit from year to year, but 25 percent lefties to 75 percent righties is about average. This means Duda would get about 525 plate appearances and Satin would get 175.

DudaDuda’s line against right-handed pitching in 2013 was .240/.369/.462, good for an .831 OPS. This is close to his career numbers, so it should be a reliable estimate of what to expect next season. Satin is more difficult to pinpoint because he has just 104 plate appearances against lefties for his career. His 2013 line against lefties was extremely good (.317/.404/.476) but it’s a safe assumption he’ll have some regression towards the mean, so – to be conservative – I’ll trust his overall line for last season (.279/.376/.405).

Duda’s 525 plate appearances plus Satin’s 175 returns a .250/.371/.448 line with an OPS of .819. The pair would combine for 146 hits (including 39 doubles and 25 HR) and 99 walks. This production would make for a well above-average offensive first baseman, tied with Prince Fielder for 11th best OPS among qualified first basemen in 2013…

Obviously, projections can falter and injuries, decline, bad luck or failure to stick with a strict platoon could all combine to result in first base production falling short of this estimate, but using this arrangement in 2014 gives the team an excellent chance at strong numbers from the position.

Platoons are often derided as a way to hide bad players, but the Mets in particular have a history of employing them to get the best out of their players. The 1969 and 1986 championship teams featured productive platoons and, while the 2014 Mets still look a long ways away from postseason contention, it’s a good reminder that the technique can and has worked.

150 comments
dtgaff
dtgaff

Davis/Flores any day

Bud Britton
Bud Britton

Why am i scratching my eyes out? Because this blog insists upon reposting this thread...Meaningless then, meaningless now, especially since neither of the two will be the opening day first baseman barring trade or injury of Davis!!! Can we please move on!!!


A Pocono View_
A Pocono View_

This is assuming Ike isn't on the team..But not sure how platoon favors anyone...let all 3 duke it out...may the best man win.

metfan8669
metfan8669

I see it this way.  I want to see as deep a bench as possible.  These 3 (Duda, Davis and Satin) are all cheap.  None will be studs, but each have positives.  It is possible that Duda or Ike turns the corner, and in that case NOT trading one of them will turn out to be the right decision.  However, we won't know that until about 9 months from now, give or take.

If you can trade one, and get a good return, then fine.  But what happens if Duda gets hurt, and Satin is exposed when called upon to play every day?  Who comes in?  Do we trade pitching in a panic mid-season?  Or we move Murphy and plug EY at 2B?  Flores?

None of those 3 options will leave us with a Major league level guy at each of those 2 positions.

So, why not support depth? 

Of course you can sign Morales or maybe there is another option or two out there, but really we need options.  We need depth.

Every guy on the roster needs to be able to provide the big hit every now and then.  Winning teams get help from various guys throughout the season.

Call me overly optimistic, or a overly loyal fool, but I would love to see Duda and Davis stick and maybe they come back with a fury.  They have motivation.  They are both still young enough and both have the raw talent to get over the hump.

Let's Go Mets!! 

bryan
bryan

Just let Duda play full time. No one wants to watch a platoon. If he's struggling by June move on and let Flores play everyday.

Söze, Keyser
Söze, Keyser

Duda/Satin platoon...Bad. Its AAAA quality at best. The sum of the parts frequently does not equal the whole with platoons. Yes, some work out well. But these two just don't impress. Satin likely a good guy to have on the bench and may have some upside but maybe the league figures him out and shuts down his one strength at the plate, ala Ike. Not a lot of run time here. Duda is not MLB quality, in aggregate. Reminds me of Mike Pelfrey, frequently carries himself like someone just stole his lunch money. Defense would be another concern with these two: Average - on a good day. Combined with 'hands of stone' over at 2B...yuck.

Best idea is keep Satin as a bench player and send Duda to warmer climes...I'd give Ike one last shot unless a deal can be made in the Spring. Not solving this mess in the off season will mean carrying forward a gaping wound onto 2014's team. Signing that Cuban defector and releasing Ike in Spring for $600K would have at least brought a fresh start with a player that has proven talent and significant upside potential. But alas, there's that money thing...and perhaps even organizational malfeasance that gets in the way again...

yankeehater
yankeehater

Its sad about duda....with his strength, if the guy actually knew how to make consistent contact he'd hit 40 homers a year without even trying.

Jennifer Alderson
Jennifer Alderson

I think Satin would outperform Duda from both sides of the plate.  People keep saying he has no power.  That's not true.  He has doubles power and some homer power, which plays better in Citi Field than Duda's warning track power.  He hits near 40 doubles yearly.  Their minor league slugging percentages are nearly the same.  Satin has hit as many as 14 HR in a minor league season.  Keith Hernandez's high was only 18 with the Mets.  Nobody was complaining.  Satin would be a perfect 2 hole hitter because of his patience, high average and ability to get on base and do the small things it takes to win.  People keep also writing that Satin failed in previous seasons, for which he has apologized.  His number of at-bats were 1 and 25.  I repeat...1 and 25.  And HE apologized.  &^%$!  Somebody owes him an apology.  If you can asses someone on 26 at-bats, you are amazing.  If you want to say that his numbers slid last year as pitchers adjusted to him, that's true.  But the thing about Satin is he has the ability to adjust back.  It's why he's here now in the conversation when others had given up on him.  He does what Davis and Duda can't.  He adapts (if he's given the chance.) 

Nicholas Vacante
Nicholas Vacante

"but using this arrangement in 2014 gives the team an excellent chance at strong numbers from the position."

I like you Maggie but this is an absolute load of BS. There's not nearly enough evidence to say it gives them an "EXCELLENT" chance at "STRONG" numbers. Just absurd. We've barely seen Satin at all and Duda got worse as each of the last two seasons progressed to the point where he was or would have lost his job. He's OBVIOUSLY not going to be the guy we saw in 2011 and his performance against righties was not good in 2012 (.745 OPS). So this: "good for an .831 OPS. This is close to his career numbers, so it should be a reliable estimate of what to expect next season" is also ridiculous to say.

Ron Davis
Ron Davis

I am surprised to see a picture of Duda touching a ball with his bat. must of been a good camera trick. lol

losmets86
losmets86

Maggie must have vacationed in Colorado and picked up some recreational materials.

yankeehater
yankeehater

All kidding aside, to suggest that we can get strong offensive numbers from 1st, with duda and satin as the 2 guys playing, is a heck of a lot of wishful thinking. The only way we get good numbers from 1st is if Ike suddenly remembers how to hit again. For Lucas to ever be a legitimate big-leaguer he'd have to be at least an average corner outfielder (which he never will be). His numbers for a 1st baseman are just not good enough.

The mets at this point seriously just have to pray that Ike somehow regains his form.....there is no other answer.

Macacawitz
Macacawitz

It would look like a preponderance of empty seats in the stands. 

Michael Stewart
Michael Stewart

" The 1969 and 1986 championship teams featured productive platoons "

The 69' and 86' teams also had excellent pitching staff,

MMIAA
MMIAA

Maggie, just a suggestion how you want to present this is a  strawman presentation. Not fact not a prediction just a way at looking at what could possibly happen.  

Gland1
Gland1

Why repost an article that doesn't seem relevant any more? This was written as if Ike was already gone, and that seems much less likely now. Why not an article discussing that?

Marc Seldin
Marc Seldin

I'm getting visions of Marvelous Marv Throneberry...

mike23
mike23

I dislike Platoons and I don't think Duda or Satin should be getting any significant playing time. Either you put Ike out there one more time and see if he finds his talent and hitting approach or they should have brought in someone else (Texas goes and gets Prince Fielder, mets say what's the problem we have Duda and Satin).... step up mets, raise the expectations and level of play please. 

Marc Seldin
Marc Seldin

Satin (Burt) with the bushy eyebrows? lol

flushed
flushed

What does Davis have to do to convince people he can't hack it anymore? All it took was a month without baseball for people to completely forget how far gone he is? I'd sooner give Jason Bay another chance.

Sammy Makki
Sammy Makki

Because platoons in 2014 are exactly what wins championships or in the Mets case, at least 81 games. When will the Mets field a real Major League caliber team instead of this garbage year in and year out? Let's just put Davis at first, at least that way we get the most out of one guy who's hit 32 home runs in a season. Alderson failed to find a taker for this buffoon and tried telling the fan base that there were three to four interested teams which was hogwash because if it were true, Ike would be with the Pirates or Brewers right now. Duda being traded was an absolute joke from the beginning because if no one wants Ike, who the hell would want Duda? So basically, the Mets brought in two aging outfielders and a fat 41 year old and tried to convince the fan base that they're "back" and have money to spend and that the team would be a contender. They would've been better off saving their $80+ million for real talent maybe in 2015 instead of doing what they said they wouldn't which is spend just to spend. I mean, how have the Mets improved? Granderson over Byrd is probably a wash statistically. Young can't hit a lick and Colon over Harvey is probably a wash as well. This team will again win 75 games and players will be traded off come July. It'll be the same old crap in Flushing and it'll never change.

yankeehater
yankeehater

@Jennifer Alderson Hold on a sec there Jennifer....lets not start comparing HR numbers when Keith played first base to today's game....the expectations at 1st, 30 years after keith played, are just a TAD different.

Now if you tell me that he's going to have a .400 obp with those weak power numbers, hit in the 2 hole, and we have power coming from 3 other positions, then that's fine. The thing is, we don't. As it stands right now we have ONE guy with plus power (granderson). You cant have only 15 hrs from your first baseman on a team that weak.

I like Satin....but he hasn't proven to me that he's anything close to an everyday 1st baseman.

nolrog
nolrog

@Michael Stewart Just because those two teams had a productive platoon, doesn't make Duda/Satin one.

MMIAA
MMIAA

@bobblehead it appears they've stopped reading rubens updates and now have officially just started copying Metsmorized.

flushed
flushed

Maybe Metsblog is acknowledging that not all their readers are on this amnesia fueled, Baron approved, Davis encore wave that has struck since no team in there right mind offered squat for damaged goods.

slainte2
slainte2

@mike23you know who does like platoons?  Billy Beane ... Oakland A's had most platoon starts in MLB last year, and by a lot ...platooned 4 positions, and won, what 92 games or something.  It can work.


If you have good players, then you don't platoon.  But platoons are better than limited (or worse, lousy) players in situations where they nave never succeeded.

Either bring in better players, or max the talent you have by giving everyone their best shot at succeeding by managing what they are exposed to.  But don't say "i don't like platoons so i am going to have Ike Davis hit against LHP."  Because he. just. can't. 


Shawn Rosen
Shawn Rosen

@Sammy Makki Lol are you even a Met fan? This is the funniest comment I've ever read. I will never take anything you say seriously, nor do I believe anyone else will. 

Gland1
Gland1

@flushed What does that mean?  If they repost an article they should at least acknowledge that Ike might still be in the equation.  If not, then they should mention where they think he will end up (minors, cut, etc)

Sammy Makki
Sammy Makki

@Shawn Rosen @Sammy Makki Longtime Met fan, are you satisfied with this team? What did I say that was funny?

Gland1
Gland1

@sylow59 I know, you're right.  You'd just think when they were looking through what to repost they'd have a little sense to add in something like "this assumes Ike is traded, even though that is looking less likely".  You're right, I do know better to expect them to have sense  

sylow59
sylow59

You know better than to expect that. How many posts have you seen where a player sign with another team and they paste in something by Baron a month earlier opining on how good a fit he'd be in the Mets?

Shawn Rosen
Shawn Rosen

First off I said I'm NOT satisfied. Please re-read, adjust brain activity and comment with intelligence. Thank you

niesesnose
niesesnose

Well they're improving because

They're getting more production out of SS. If they sign Drew, or even Tejada stars, they will gt more production out of SS than last year.

Marcum won't be out there for 9 auto losses

Laffey won't be making starts

Hefner won't

Mejia, Colon, Syndrgaard and Montero are replacing Harvey, Marcum, Laffey and Hefner in the rotation. Think about that improvement

They will likely get more production out of C

Thy will likely get more production out of CF as Lagares will most likely produce more offensively than last year

A platoon of Duda and Satin will produce more than last year's 1B

mike23
mike23

@Shawn Rosen @Sammy Makki your satisfied with being a .500 team, I think that is the issue I have with some mets fans why be satisfied with such mediocre results. I agree with Sammy time for wilpons and mets organization to get this team back to respectability and back to having a championship type mind set, enough of this low expectation stuff. 


Also, this team might be a little better but all they did was replace similar stats with new players, they still have basically the same team again in 14' minus harvey. 

Sammy Makki
Sammy Makki

@Shawn Rosen @Sammy Makki Compare stats with the players. How is Granderson better than Byrd? Byrd hit 20 home runs last year, what will Granderson hit? Will Colon win more than Harvey did with this offense? How good is Young? Answer me those questions.

Shawn Rosen
Shawn Rosen

@Sammy Makki @Shawn Rosen No I am not satisfied but the team we are fielding is MUCH MUCH better than it was last year. Do I think we make the playoffs? No. Do I think we win the division? Absolutely not. But are we a .500 team? no doubt about it. Granderson is a valued veteran who can hit and adjust as the season goes. Colon was brilliant last year in, guess what, a pitchers ballpark like, guess again, the one we currently reside in. Be happy we arent pushing neiwenhuis and den dekker out there instead. I apologize if I brash before but seriously, Im life long too. But I only let this stuff frustrate me when were fielding roberto alomar and mo vaughn. Thats when mets fans were at their worst.