The Mets and Cubs don’t match up as well as people think

The Cubs will need to see an overwhelming offer from the Mets to trade them 24-year-old, three-time All-Star SS Starlin Castro, the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzalez recently told SNY.TV’s Mostly Mets podcast.



“I think they would be open to moving him, but it would have to be for a front line, non-arbitration eligible, No. 1 or No. 2 pitcher,” according to Gonzalez, who believes Castro’s bat is significantly less valuable if moved to third base or the outfield.


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According to New York reporter Andy Martino’s sources, while the Mets might be willing to part with Noah Syndergaard in a deal for Cubs SS prospect Addison Russell, the Cubs will almost certainly want more than that (Daily News, Aug. 20). Similarly, in return for Castro, while the Mets might consider trading Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores, Martino says the Cubs would again want more, such as Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom.

In the end, “It’s hard to see how we would actually match up,” an official with one of the clubs told Martino.




105 comments
Justin Kaiser
Justin Kaiser

You can't just buy pitching. Sure, once every five years an ace hits the market, and maybe the Cubs can outbid them. But at the end of the day, free agent starters team controllable and cheap under 30 are very very rare. Given, they can draft guys, or just bank on no names, but even with this guys comment, you still have Addison Russell without a position (assuming the outfield is Soler, Alcantara, and Almora are the outfielders.) Even if Alcantara is the guy to go, I'm willing to give up a decent prospect for him.

With the Castillo signing, Mets should trade Rafael Montero to the Red Sox fro Jackie Bradley.... Straight up. Great defender, hit for power in minors but has struggled at major league level. Maybe he needs a change of scenery, and after trading Lester and Lackey could use an above average pitching prospect who could start immediately

Don't know if this trade could be done now, because doubt both players would clear waivers, but definitely a deal for the off season.

Bill Vanwormer
Bill Vanwormer

Cubs don't have the needs the Mets have and Theo knows it. You hit the nail on the head

birtelcom
birtelcom

Musial won 3 world championships, Mays won one and Aaron won one.  Like Mays and Aaron, Tom Seaver, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux each won one world championship.  Yes, you can have murderer's row and without pitching you have nothing.  You also need a catcher, because as Casey S. pointed out, without one you get a lot of passed balls.  

matmil
matmil

Harvey, Wheeler and DeGrom are the future of this team. How many championships did Willie Mays win? How many did Musial win? Henry Aaron? Pitching wins championships. You could have murders row and without pitching you've got nothing. Everybody wants home run hitters, well that's what SA got you. Granderson, Duda, CY, what did it get you? Now you want more home run hitters and your thinking of trading away your best pitchers for some Dave Kingman or Jason Bay. Forget it. Pitching, speed , excellent defense, and Timely hitting WINS.

spelletrader
spelletrader

Sowing the seeds of a do nothing off season already?

hashburry
hashburry

I'd be ok with trading Harvey once he proves he's healthy, if they can get 2 top MLB ready prospects.

David Jay
David Jay

Here's the blog doing prep work for the Wilpons- now starting to lay the groundwork to justify another wasted offseason

zingzangzo
zingzangzo

Like to see us trade for Stanton. Giving a top pitching prospect, maybe Granderson + one of our 1st base prospects. Like to see Herrara stay with the organization as a top backup if need be for Murphy. Love the way Murphy has grown over the years as all around 2nd baseman. Love to see Matt Reynolds come up right now so Wright can rest his aching shoulder. Duda is turning his game around hitting for better pct. D'anaurd looks real nice. Love to see Dendecker lay off those in the dirt ala John Franco pitches. He has a sweet stroke that can get him an everyday position with that one correction of his at bats. If he walks more his pct. at the plate can soar to. Be more patient Matty!

birtelcom
birtelcom

", who believes Castro’s bat is significantly less valuable if moved to third base or the outfield. "  Well, yes, but not exactly an insight -- everybody's bat is necessarily less valuable if moved from short to third or the outfield.  Hitting talent is scarcer among guys who can play short than among those who can play third or outfield, so whenever you move anybody from short to third or outfield you are reducing the value of their bat relatively to competing available talent.   So to say this about Castro in particular is not really to say anything meaningful.      

birtelcom
birtelcom

Taking into account both offense and defense, Castro seems to be worth about two wins a season, at most, more than Ruben Tejada.  

Kenneth Meltsner
Kenneth Meltsner

Sure, the guy is a bit of a head case (Reyes wasn't?!?) and takes the occasional play/game off. But when was the last time we had an impact player at SS?  Maybe the Cubs would be happy with one of our more seasoned pitchers. Sandy has got to work to make this happen. I do not want to see another season with Omar Quintanilla as a back-up option.

Rob_Zloto
Rob_Zloto

@AVSNY @metsblog ppl often focus on mets pitching depth & cubs hitting, but how often do two rebuilding clubs at similar stage deal?

flmetsfan
flmetsfan

Although I do feel that dealing one young pitcher, and some lesser talent for someone than Castro might be very reasonable, I think that the Mets should tell Theo Epstein to "pound salt" if he insists on two young pitchers.

Good young arms aren't a "dime a dozen" regardless of who is saying it.

hankypanky
hankypanky

Once again it looks as if Alderson was wise NOT to pull the trigger on a trade that would have cost the Mets some of their best arms. Yes, you don't get something for nothing, but there's always a delicate balance in decision making, especially in a sport where talent is difficult to evaluate.

Paul Rubin
Paul Rubin

I don't see trading Wheeler who's proven he's a #2 starter in his first full year for a very borderline all star shortstop with a big but manageable contract as a terrible deal but it's not a good one either. The money saved by keeping Wheeler can be used to acquire say 75% of Hanley Ramirez. So something like Syndergaard AND deGrom? Nope. Or Wheeler and one of them? Nope. Would I trade Syndergaard for a good shortstop prospect? Sure. But Syndergaard AND deGrom? Nope. Remember, whoever we pick up is going to have their offense stunted by Citifield and not much lineup support and that needs to be factored into the expectations. We do not need an all star SS and LF to contend. We need Duda to either take another step or platoon him slightly along with Murphy to do about the same. We need D'Arnaud to take another step forward offensively. We need some semblance of the David Wright we all know and love to make a comeback. We need a little more from Granderson and Lagares. If we get 2 of those 4 things to happen and turn SS and LF into league average players, that's the appropriate next step while our deep young pitching rounds into form if the goal is to achieve perennial contention. Remember there are some good young hitters in the system we don't want to block for 2016 and beyond like Smith, Nimmo, Plawecki, Conforto, Herrera, And maybe Puello, Cecchini and Rosario will begin turning it around. Campbell looks like a pretty decent young hitter as does Reynolds. We probably have more hitting left in the minors now than pitching and if the Mets now go for a more balanced approach in drafting going forward, we might stay that way for awhile. We should be packaging the older pricier pitchers like Niese and Colon for more offense. Trading for Chicago's best young prospect could net us another D'Arnaud who takes a year or two to learn to hit adequately and who knows how long, if ever, to shine brightly. Plus I don't understand why we're not in on Castillo.


ReneNYK1
ReneNYK1

The Angels are desperate now and they might be incline to make a trade.I propose a blockbuster for us :

Going to the Angels:

1-Colon

2-Grandelson

3-Plawecki

They can use a catching propect with huge potential and they can eat Grandelson contract and he can replace Hamilton in left for them,of course due to injury Colon fits.

Mets get :

1-Out of Grandelson's deal which should open the wallet to spend next year.

2-Out of Colon contract which it's an embarassment we can't afford in a big market.

3-We get the only good prospect they have in their number one pick in 2014

  Sean Newcomb which is the kinda of lefty I love ,great fastball tops at 97.slider and breaking ball,curve and changeup,now all he needs is a little better command which should come,he is also 6/5 240 which is imposing with the fastball.




MetsFan1962
MetsFan1962

The Mets should only consider a one man trade for Russell. I would not flip Wheeler or deGrom for him...Niese should match up well.

ReneNYK1
ReneNYK1

Time to put Wright and Mejia on the injury list and operate on them if needed to get them ready for next year ,they sure aren't helping the team hurt.Also we can give the young guys more play.Campbell at third for the rest of the year works for me.

ventura_4
ventura_4

This is so frustrating. The Mets can't keep every one of their prospects if they aren't going to spend any money. I have a bad feeling that this off-season is going to be much like last off-season. They'll sign a couple guys to a one year deal - guys not worth it.

J. Gomez
J. Gomez

If the Mets give up Wheeler, Flores and either deGrom or Syndergaard, the entire front office should be fired on the spot. A lot of fans get blinded by the fact that Castro has been a 3 time all star, so what?


You don't give up 2/5 of your 2015 rotation in order to get a player that is NOT going to make you a winner next year. Castro will make the Mets better in 2015 but he by himself makes the Mets maybe a 500 team and that doesn't win anything.


Ask yourself this question:


Do the Mets have a better chance to win in 2015 with Castro at SS or with both Wheeler and deGrom in the rotation? Now add the combination of Wheeler, deGrom and Syndergaard. Is it possible that these 3 pitchers give the Mets at least 30 wins? It will probably be more but can Castro give the Mets 30 wins?


Wake up to reality. Trades that hurt your rotation are not going to help especially when you are not getting a Stanton type player. It is the same stupid miscalculation when everyone was going ga-ga over Tulo and ignoring his history of being hurt. Where is he now? where is Cargo?

Mike Herrington
Mike Herrington

Castro is WAY overpriced and not worth it at all. His War is 1.6 or 13th best in ML baseball. Considering  Tejada's is 1.1, you gain very little for a top of the line pitcher for him. Cubs can keep him.

rowjamie
rowjamie

Addison Reed was acqiured for Jeff Samardzija, who is definitely not a #1 and not a very proven #2 either.  Either Noah or Wheeler alone should get it done, though I dont know if I would make that deal.  Something like DeGrom or Montero, Plawecki and another arm gives the Cubs quality and quantity something they need both og. 

elcondor
elcondor

Jackie can just flat out not hit, change of scenery would not help. Just my opinion from what I've seen

matmil
matmil

I loved Casey so much I named my dog after him. He was great, made a really bad team watchable. When Aaron won he had some pretty good pitching. I didn't realize Musial won that many times but I'm sure they had some good pitching. Beside Stanton and Trout and maybe Harper I don't see anybody out there worth Harvey, Wheeler or DeGrom. Not worth Castro that's for sure.

birtelcom
birtelcom

The 1976 Reds and 2006 Cardinals (we remember that team painfully) are examples of teams that have won WS championships with generally mediocre pitching staffs (those Cards had Chris Carpenter and then pretty much a disaster of a remaining rotation).  It doesn't happen often, but it can happen.  On the other hand, it is true that these days with multiple rounds of playoffs, you are right, matmil, that a really good top of the rotation and a really good set of reliable relievers are increasingly valuable in the post-season.  

Kenneth Meltsner
Kenneth Meltsner

@zingzangzo Never gonna happen. And what organization in their right mind would sign Granderson after this season (irony intended)?

matt greco
matt greco

@Paul Rubin lastings milledge.  alex escobar.  can we stop worrying about "blocking" kids that could just as easily end up busts and get some real, actual major league players on the friggin team?  seriously...

matt greco
matt greco

@ReneNYK1 so we're trading two offensive players for more pitching when our offense is already garbage?  not to mention two major league players and one of the best catching prospects in baseball for a guy who was just drafted two months ago?  makes perfect sense...


the level of stupid on the comments here is entertaining if nothing else...

tvators
tvators

@MetsFan1962 Russell would cost Noah/Wheeler PLUS.....Niese is not even close and wouldn't even get us Alcantra

J. Gomez
J. Gomez

@ReneNYK1 Lets be bold,

Shut down Wright and Mejia. Bring up Reynolds. 

Flores 3B, Reynolds SS and Campbell platoons with DD on LF.

J. Gomez
J. Gomez

@ventura_4 Sandy already started putting next year's team together. Abreu has already come back on board. CY should be next. And lets not forget that he has not put Colon on waivers so he will be part of the 2015 team as well.


Sandy is soooooo smart.

thwacker
thwacker

@borsh13 Agree.  Are the Cubs going to keep 3 good SS?  The two in AAA will start getting unhappy while the Cubs stay in last place.

Paul Rubin
Paul Rubin

@J. Gomez Castro was an all star this year cause the rest of his team sucks too :-)

tvators
tvators

@Mike Herrington Fangraphs has Castro at 2.6 and Tejada at 0.6, Castro is def easily no doubt much better than tejada but not much better that you'd give up multiple high end arms

J. Gomez
J. Gomez

@rowjamie You started out on the right path. Russel was traded for the Cubs ace but he is no Harvey or Price.


Look, I understand that Addison Russel (who is Addison Reed?) has the potential to be a very good player but just for fun, check out the numbers for Herrera who is already in-house and playing shortstop.

Sean Matrai
Sean Matrai

@rowjamie Sama was dealt at the deadline. You always get higher trade return at the deadline. The Cubs are looking to play the same game Sandy, and the Mets have played. Getting gold back for silver. The problem with this is that will only work for a team that is desperate, and in need.

The A's were desperate, and wanted to desperately upgrade the rotation by adding Samardzija

The Giants were desperate to defend their title, and dealt Wheeler for Beltran.

The Blue Jays were desperate, after Loria sent Anthropoulos the south beach team, so they dealt D'arnaud,and Syndergaard for Dickey

birtelcom
birtelcom

@matmil I do agree about Harvey, Wheeler, Jacob -- too much upside there to trade for any likely hitters.  Definitely agree about Castro and those three.  I put Castro in the "would trade for  Niese/Gee" category.  

birtelcom
birtelcom

Which is of course proven by how many more games the Cubs have won than the Mets this season.

Nicholas Vargas
Nicholas Vargas

Russell hasn't even played in the majors yet... Calm down

MetsFan1962
MetsFan1962

@tvators . . We know what we got with Wheeler and deGrom. We don't know what Russell can do on the ML level....think Wilmer Flores in the minors then the ML. The jury is still out on Wilmer's ability on the field and his bat. 

rowjamie
rowjamie

@J. Gomez

HAHA Addison Reed is the closer on the DBacks and on my fantasy team.  nice catch. 

James
James

@J. Gomez @rowjamie Yeah, he is a 2B of the future not SS.  Might very well be our 2B in 2016 after they let Murphy walk.

tvators
tvators

@Nicholas Vargas ohh ok, so no one has seen him play, he;s not universally a to 5/6 prospect at a premium position, so why are we so hung up on Syndergaard? he's never played in the majors? AGAin im not saying trade Wheeler and Noah for him, just that Jonathon Nies for Russell is a laughing absurb suggestion

tvators
tvators

@MetsFan1962 Jury is in and has been for years, Flores is not a major league SS, Russell is the top SS prospect in what looks like the best crop of young SS in 20 yrs (correa, Lindor, Baez,+) and you want to trade a oft hurt mid to back rotation starter for him....Also not sure you know what you have in degrom after 86 IP, Josh Collmenter looked like a future ace after 86 major league innings....