The first base platoon of Lucas Duda and Josh Satin

Matthew Cerrone, Lead Writer

There is statistical evidence to suggest Josh Satin and Lucas Duda can come together to hit .260 with 25 doubles, 20 home runs and a .360 or so OBP over the course of a full season, assuming Satin starts against lefties and Duda starts against righties…

I’m usually against platoons. However, if Sandy Alderson determines that it’s best to trade or non-tender Ike Davis, I think I can live with Satin-Duda, especially since Duda’s defense around first has not been nearly as bad as I expected.

Duda DavisThat level contribution from Satin-Duda would be slightly less productive than what Cardinals get out of Allen Craig and Dodgers see from Adrian Gonzalez, or roughly middle of the pack among starting, every-day first baseman in the National League. They’d probably end up being worth around 1.5 to 2.0 WAR, for those who put stock in that statistic. Ike Davis had a 1.1 WAR in 2012, despite hitting 31 home runs and playing a better-than-average first base.

Alderson can’t keep Satin, Duda, Davis and Wilmer Flores — plus have David Wright locked in at third base. That is too many corner infielders on a roster that it isn’t very productive and with limited spots.

I get the sense from insiders that Daniel Murphy will be heavily talked about in trades this winter, so there is a chance Flores could land at second base.  Or, I suppose the Mets could trade Flores and Murphy, and sign a middle infielder, while putting Ruben Tejada back at short. In the end, I bet the front office balks at either of these options…

That said, these things are clear: Duda’s days in left field are over. He’ll either be playing first base for the Mets next season or be with a different team. And, while Satin is motivated to learn the outfield, the team still sees him primarily as a first baseman.

Also, Murphy has more value this year than last, Davis will likely earn around $5 million next year, Wright isn’t moving off third base, nor should he, and, as long as Mets fans have been aware of Wilmer’s bat, other teams are not nearly as intrigued by him as an overall player.

In other words, Alderson is going to have to choose who stays and who goes…




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