Michael Baron, ContributorDan Szymborski of ESPN has released his annual 2014 ZIPS projections for the Mets.
Szymborski predicts David Wright will hit .274 with 19 home runs and 74 RBI, Curtis Granderson will hit .237 with 20 home runs and 54 RBI, Chris Young will hit .232 with 16 home runs and 54 RBI, Ike Davis will hit .232 with 18 home runs and 62 RBI, Lucas Duda will hit .239 with 18 home runs and 61 RBI, and Wilmer Flores will hit .263 with 14 home runs and 79 RBI.
In addition, Szymborski predicts Matt Harvey will have a 3.01 ERA with 167 strikeouts over 164 1/3 innings, Zack Wheeler will have a 3.62 ERA with 151 strikeouts over 166 2/3 innings, Jon Niese will have a 3.76 ERA with 121 strikeouts in 161 2/3 innings, Dillon Gee will have a 4.09 ERA with 115 strikeouts in 156 1/3 innings, and Bartolo Colon will have a 3.60 ERA and 97 strikeouts in 147 2/3 innings.
Well, Harvey isn’t going to pitch in 2014, so that projection can be discarded.
I do think these projections tend to be on the lighter side in many cases. They also include a lot of players – such as Flores – who might not even make the team out of camp. In the case of Duda and Davis, they can’t both produce the numbers Szymborski projects, as that would require each of them to start on a regular basis. They also don’t factor in the possibility of injury or any other unforeseen circumstance involving a player.
In the end, I try not to read too much into the numbers themselves so much as I try to understand why Szymborski made these determinations. The numbers themselves might ultimately be off at the end of the year, but it serves as an interesting study of a player’s age, his sabermetric history as well as the parks he predominantly plays in with respects to either expected growth or decline.
Read more: 2014 ZIPS projections (Szymborski, FanGraphs)