The 2014 ZIPS projections for the Mets

Michael Baron, Contributor

Dan Szymborski of ESPN has released his annual 2014 ZIPS projections for the Mets.

Szymborski predicts David Wright will hit .274 with 19 home runs and 74 RBI, Curtis Granderson will hit .237 with 20 home runs and 54 RBI, Chris Young will hit .232 with 16 home runs and 54 RBI, Ike Davis will hit .232 with 18 home runs and 62 RBI, Lucas Duda will hit .239 with 18 home runs and 61 RBI, and Wilmer Flores will hit .263 with 14 home runs and 79 RBI.

In addition, Szymborski predicts Matt Harvey will have a 3.01 ERA with 167 strikeouts over 164 1/3 innings, Zack Wheeler will have a 3.62 ERA with 151 strikeouts over 166 2/3 innings, Jon Niese will have a 3.76 ERA with 121 strikeouts in 161 2/3 innings, Dillon Gee will have a 4.09 ERA with 115 strikeouts in 156 1/3 innings, and Bartolo Colon will have a 3.60 ERA and 97 strikeouts in 147 2/3 innings.

Well, Harvey isn’t going to pitch in 2014, so that projection can be discarded.

I do think these projections tend to be on the lighter side in many cases. They also include a lot of players – such as Flores – who might not even make the team out of camp.  In the case of Duda and Davis, they can’t both produce the numbers Szymborski projects, as that would require each of them to start on a regular basis. They also don’t factor in the possibility of injury or any other unforeseen circumstance involving a player.

In the end, I try not to read too much into the numbers themselves so much as I try to understand why Szymborski made these determinations. The numbers themselves might ultimately be off at the end of the year, but it serves as an interesting study of a player’s age, his sabermetric history as well as the parks he predominantly plays in with respects to either expected growth or decline.


Read more: 2014 ZIPS projections (Szymborski, FanGraphs)

216 comments
TurkWendell4Life
TurkWendell4Life

Szymborski predicts what Harvey will do in 2014. This dude clearly doesn't pay attention to baseball. 

SuperDuper
SuperDuper

What is the strikeout record for a team? Mets lineup has a good chance of challenge it.

metfan8669
metfan8669

Who is Zoddie?  The ZIPS originator?  He is fighting pretty hard to make this seem like some sort of legit prediction system.   I ask you Zoddie, what % of players have accurately been predicted last year?   Do you have a list to your findings?

Is there no human element?  Was Marlon Byrd superhuman last year?

mets2891
mets2891

These projections and a stamp are worth 46 cents.

John Kelly
John Kelly

David Wright will hit .300 with 22 HR and 92 RBI's

Gustavo Zylberberg
Gustavo Zylberberg

ZIPS projects the Mets to play 241 games this season and bat 13 people in their lineup daily.

Anthony Testa
Anthony Testa

His opinion and a dollar will get him a cup of coffee at the dinner

maxster
maxster

Mets lineup based on last years performances may be an historically poor lineup. The K's will be off the charts.

Tejada         .210

C Young .     200

Duda            .235

d'arneau      .163

E Young       .245

Davis            .202

Legares        .223

Teagarden   .168

Grandersen  .245

This is deplorable performance. Some fans say some will be better in 2014, but what if their worse? They lied to us and to Wright about 2014 being the year they would spend and contend. They strike out way to much and are poor in balls in play. I am shocked that the hitting coach was brought back, who improved? They could have a team BA in the .220's. The Wilpons are hanging on by a thread financially. We would be crazy to bye tickets or merchandise. Lets drive them out. Stay home. By the way the Payroll this year  will be 10 Million LESS than last year and the 6th year in arrow of declining Payroll. They will be between 5th & 7th from the bottom in payroll in 2014. Its a sad, frustrating, situation, and we deserve better!

Derpy
Derpy

Just looking at those Zips predictions, it is predicting the Mets will be pretty much the worst baseball team ever fielded in baseball history.  This thing is predicting 400 runs scored and like 700 runs allowed.  Thats an xW% of like .25.  


40-122 here we come!


Note, this past season the Mets scored 619 and allowed 684.  A lot of those runs allowed came earlier in the season, when people like Laffey were starting pitchers.  When Harvey, Hefner, Gee, Mejia, and Niese were all pitching together, the pitching was dominant, giving up around 3 runs per game.  Then Hefner, Mejia, and Harvey all got hurt and it all fell apart.  I think you will see a drop in runs allowed, increase in runs scored.  I would guess 640 runs scored, 650 allowed, around 80 wins.  This would mean a team ERA around 3.6 (585 ER in 1480IP).   Individual projections, I dunno, but that is my team projection.  The Zips stuff is crazy regressive.  The Mets are not losing 122 games this season, sorry, Zips.

metfanjack
metfanjack

I think most of those predictions r a little to harsh for most of our players. I realistically see Wright's BA and HRs increasing because of the protection he has in the lineup with Curtis Granderson. Plus David is in his prime so he will have a great season in my opinion.

Matt Drucker
Matt Drucker

Wright is a .300 lifetime hitter. Now all of the sudden he's going to drop 30 points. I just don't see that happening.

james manfrede
james manfrede

he projected Harvey what a joke this guy is.....


pcshea
pcshea

@TurkWendell4Life Exactly, this is clearly garbage.

zoddie
zoddie

@metfan8669 Who IS Zoddie?


1. He is a robot, which is why he sympathizes with advanced statistical algorithms designed to project player performance.


2. He had too much time on his hands today.


3. He is proud when he hears that Mets fans are viewed as some of the more knowledgeable fans in baseball.  Therefore, when a large segment of the fan base sees information they do not like, it disturbs him when they shout, "NO UNDERSTAND, ALL PROJECTIONS DUMB!  In short, feel free to refer to this cartoon --  http://xkcd.com/386/


4. He cannot believe that arguments about the use of advanced statistics in baseball are still going on in 2014.  The argument is over.  The geeks have won.  Ask the Red Sox.  Ask the A's.  Ask the Rays.


5. He still can't believe that people do not grasp the difference between predictions and projections (see: the human element. see: that's why they play the games).


6. ZiPS is a decent projection system, but hasn't been the best the last couple of years.  If you understand more math than I do, here you go - http://www.mrcheatsheet.com/2013/02/analyzing-accuracy-of-2012-projections.html


7. Yes, Marlon Byrd WAS superhuman last year.  Didn't you watch the games?  Dude was awesome.


zoddie
zoddie

@Gustavo ZylberbergIt seems to be that you do not understand how ZiPS projections work.  Some of that is Baron's fault, more of it is yours.  Google.

zoddie
zoddie

@metfanjackProtection is overrated and mostly a myth.  I think David Wright will perform much as he did the past two years.  Both of which were really, really good.

Andrew Wharton
Andrew Wharton

@Matt Drucker 2013 ZiPS projected Wright to hit .274/.357/.449. This particular simulation tends to favor regression a little heavily. 

zoddie
zoddie

@pcshea@TurkWendell4LifeSzym doesn't predict anything, actually.  His model PROJECTS all players.  Szymborski knows more about baseball than us three combined.

metfan8669
metfan8669

@zoddie @metfan8669 - I respect you or anyone else that takes the time to put together a projection system.  I also respect anyone that takes the time to compare the different systems. BUT, I don't think they are worth much more than a good baseball analyst can figure out.

Do I think the A's, Red Sox and Rays have done a great job, yes.  But I don't think your arguments are 100% honest.

For instance, the Sox got Napoli at a discount due to perceived health issues.  They also got a great season out of Poppy at age 37.  There was no regression there.

Nava, Carp, Iglesias, Lavarnaway all hit .300 or close to it.  Were those all on target progressions? Nava had bat .240 the year before and Carp .215

Lackey at age 35 had his best season since 2007.  Buchholz posted a sub 2.00 ERA.  The bullpen pitched lights out.  Breslow, and Uehara pitched absolutely beyond previous seasons.

My point is that they had a good manager, and things came together for them.  It wasn't all statistical analysis. 

The pitching staff is why they won.  If Lackey performed like the year prior they would not have been nearly as good.   What were ZIPS prediction on him last year?

The Rays have been this good because they built their roster off of how many 1st picks in drafts?  Then they took the model of trading those guys right before they get paid for other young talent under contract.  Like Shields for Myers.  Rookie of the year, under contract, for Shields who they never had to overpay for.   That has very little to do with Zips projections.  More to do with smart financial decisions, and capilizing on guys when value is at a high.

John Anderson
John Anderson

@Andrew Wharton @Matt Drucker It's up to Wright to prove it wrong. 2011 is still being a factor as most projections typically blend the past 3 years of actual performance. Another solid year and Wright's projections for 2015 should trend closer to his career averages, minus the typical age-regression as he moves further away from ages 28 & 29.

metfan8669
metfan8669

@zoddie @metfan8669 - And please stop acting like the other 29 teams don't use statistical analysis.  How about the Cardinals?  Do they use it?   The Tigers?

TooGooden16
TooGooden16

@JonPresser he begs MLB GMs for roster spot and @s them. He gives his agent's email to book him for Bar Mitzvahs.

zoddie
zoddie

@TooGooden16@metsonmymind@bigcountrygriffSure you can.  Some athletes are more prone to injury than others.  Those who have been injured in the past are more likely to get injured in the future.  Some injuries are chronic, some are freak, some are in the middle.  Staying healthy is a skill.

TooGooden16
TooGooden16

@JonPresser Jose is great follow. No clue what's going on. There's goats and gf models and hugs for beleaguered figures in the news.

zoddie
zoddie

@TooGooden16@metsonmymind@bigcountrygriffOf course you can.  Athletes who have been injured in the past tend to get injured in the future.  Some injuries are freak injuries, some are not, some are in the middle.  Staying healthy is a skill.

JonPresser
JonPresser

@TooGooden16 ha, i actually follow chipper but not canseco. though my mute button on tweetdeck gets a good workout on the reg

TooGooden16
TooGooden16

@JonPresser Canseco's twitter us enough former ballplayer crazy for me. Chipper's is bizarre. I left a while ago.

JonPresser
JonPresser

@TooGooden16 his twitter is hilarious. i never know what he's talking about half the time. those are often the best twitters

TooGooden16
TooGooden16

@JonPresser same. I get the feeling Larry is bipolar though. His twitter is crazy sometimes. Can't handle criticism.

JonPresser
JonPresser

@TooGooden16 the last 4-5 years or so, my hate for him started to fade and it became more of a begrudging respect. still chant "larrrry" tho

JonPresser
JonPresser

@TooGooden16 here's what crazy. the older fans? they'd be NUTS because younger fans would embrace him. hell, i'd embrace him too i think

JonPresser
JonPresser

@TooGooden16 he's destined to be a met. we all know this. and chipper will toottttaly be that dad who comes to the games with a met hat too

TooGooden16
TooGooden16

@JonPresser you have a total budget and years are allocated up to 12 for keepers right after the draft.

JonPresser
JonPresser

@TooGooden16 ha, that's pretty wild. crazy how fast wacha went from "not a high ceiling" guy to flying up the system & being so dominant

TooGooden16
TooGooden16

@JonPresser believe it or not I had $1 left for minors and had seen Wacha against Mets in ST and took him on a hunch.

TooGooden16
TooGooden16

@JonPresser I love keeper. Makes it a franchise. Adds depth to the Draft and trading elements.

EpideMets
EpideMets

@TooGooden16 lol I saw your tweet on Metsblog...somehow that debate (as well as these tweets) are linked to the blog

JonPresser
JonPresser

@TooGooden16 i only started doing regular major league keeper this past year, and it's nervewracking as it is. i think i'd go nuts with that

TooGooden16
TooGooden16

@JonPresser probably a reach. You get 3 minors spots. I traded Gyorko for Puig in Puig's first week. Jorge Soler is my other.

TooGooden16
TooGooden16

@EpideMets plus, me writing the guy's name allowed him to find it and started a debate. Hilarious.

MMandelkern_BR
MMandelkern_BR

@TooGooden16 I don't care about his reputation, that article is complete BS and he clearly didn't give it an ounce of thought

TooGooden16
TooGooden16

@metsonmymind he is well respected, but yeah idk the basis of the stats, but that is near impossible.