ICYMI: Sandy says, “Ya Gotta Believe, right?”

This post originally appeared on July 19, 2014…

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Mets have roughly a three percent chance of making the post-season, despite winning 9 of their last 11 games (BP, July 19).


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“If you ask the guys on the field, they probably think we’ve got a little better chance than that,” Sandy Alderson said before Friday night’s game. “Sometimes, ‘Ya Gotta Believe,’ right? This is a time.”




230 comments
Joseph DeFazio
Joseph DeFazio

We are 8 games out of first and 5 games under .500.  I don't even know why these polls are on here. Unless the Mets rip off 10-15 in a-row, which isn't likely, they should be more concerned about developing the young guys more than anything else. 

birtelcom
birtelcom

--The table posted here is now a few days old.  As of this morning (July 21), the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds for the Mets are down from 3.8% (in the outdated table above) to 1.9%.  B-Pro's odds are based on B-Pro's evaluation of the overall talent on the team which are then applied to a series of simulations of the rest of the season's games.  The percentage reflects how often the simulations of the rest of the season's games result in the Mets winning a playoff spot. 


--To compare a different projection method,  check Fangraphs playoff odds based on current season stats (with weighting toward more recent stats).  Instead of using a projection of overall talent (which includes career stats a la B-Pro), this method just looks at current season stats, and especially more recent stats.  This method produces a Mets playoff chance of 12.2% as of this morning,   The higher chances for the Mets in this calculation presumably reflect the fact that the Mets, although based on their full-career expected talent levels look like a sub-.500 team,  have actually scored more than they've allowed this season and have looked even better lately.  So if you rely on current season and recent numbers, the chances of a Mets playoff spot go up from around 2% to around 12%.


--Which of these methods you find more informative may be a matter of taste, but they may be more interesting looked at together, rather than just looking at one or the other.                  

Peter Loibl
Peter Loibl

I see some comments about not going after Tulo because he is 30 and injury prone ... wasn't Keith Hernandez 30 when he was traded to the Mets, coming off of huge (see: cocaine) personal issues that fogged his future? That worked out ok. 

Jason Krull
Jason Krull

I believe that I will continue to stay away from Citi Field

mets2891
mets2891

I don't believe.  I really really don't.

Jim Yager
Jim Yager

The only thing that I beleive is that the GM does NOT how to make a deal. When is the last time that a trade was made that helped this team ? They always do NOTHING and then act shocked when the team fades away after the ASG. This is just more of the same old same. Anybody that thinks Harvey will help this tea mis crazy!! We cannot win without a BIG bat or two. Unless this off season is crazy, 2015 will be more of the same sub 500 playing :{

rubiconx0
rubiconx0

i dont thnk that Flores can hit major league pitching consistently, the big move would be to get Troy Tulowitzki, that would be huge and the shot of adrenaline this team needs to be instantly better this year and for years to come! Get it done Sandy!

Jay Cross
Jay Cross

Did anybody else look at our 0.1% chance of winning the WS and think of Dumb & Dumber? "Sooooo you're saaaaaying there's a chance!"

mets74
mets74

Personally, I don't have an issue with SA. I even "got" his beer comment from a couple months ago. But saying "Ya gotta believe, right?" sounds like he's unsure if we should or he should. To me, it would have been better if he ended the conversation with "Ya gotta believe!", and then walked away. Better yet, if he had said "You gotta Bo-lieve!", and walked away, I would be on cloud nine. 

lagaresfamiliafan
lagaresfamiliafan

These charts mean nothing I looked at one of these charts on mlb.com after the mets were 15-10 and in a playoff spot. It still looked like this.

Nicholas Vargas
Nicholas Vargas

Imagine the rotation such as Harvey, Niese, Wheeler, Gee, Matz and Noah next season????

bbinpcola
bbinpcola

The BP playoff percentage always seemed more reactive than predictive to me. It changes with the club's record. I put little credence in it.

lindro88
lindro88

I wish I saw in Flores, what so many on this site seem to see. Big they get production from the rest of the lineup, like they are now, they can carry a lighter hitting SS. Tejada is a better defensive player than Flores. If he wasn't, they'd give Flores his shot. Team is winning and paying crisp baseball. Why not let this group keep going. If they want to really upgrade the position with a trade, that's different.

Mike Herrington
Mike Herrington

Sandy's comments are for 3 reasons:


1) Keeps the Mets players morale up and keeps them going.

2) Keeps the Mets fans morale up and keeps them going.

3) If other team's GM think they will be getting any Mets players on the cheap, forget it.


Still don't see the conviction in Sandy that the team is ready to make the next leap. But it is nice to see the team playing well.

pcubed
pcubed

This chart is so flawed it is ridiculous. It is literally projecting our standings of the first half and multiplying it by two not considering other factors that will boost us in the second half (our new found confidence, chemistry, etc). Of course it's hard to include these intangible factors, but don't be naive and post a stupid chart like that. It's pathetic. 


On another note, ya gotta believe. LGM!

dolan
dolan

Lets go Mets...Lets go Mets! d'Arnaud doing big things! Murphy nip this at the plate now my man, no mind up there...get around earlier tonight...Wright do you. Duda (2nd half catalyst and he's up for it) do you! Lagares do you. Tejada do you my man!...Grandy do you, keep table setting! Kirk, Bobby 'chains' Abreu, CY, EYJr, Eric 'Utility' Campbell, Anthony reckin Recker, all do you!! This team is fun to watch right now, lets keep it fun and keep on winning games!! Tonight: Dillon Gee. If Duda is a catalyst in the lineup, then this guy is in the rotation. Like Duda, Gee can get it done!!! And how about Familia, Torres, Mejia!! Little early to get crazy, but if they go, like they are going, it's setting up nice!! Lets go Mets!!! Lets put up some runs tonight for Gee! 

Sandy! The met spirit at heart with this guy! No moves tho...but if he does, I hope they're smart moves, and that he sees what met fans sees...that this team, as is, as got some hype and talent that works!!

Marc Seldin
Marc Seldin

Gotta take it with a grain of salt because it's calculated based on the current win-loss percentage. There's no human element in there to say that the team looks better than it's win-loss record and has a great potential for a big upswing.

John Kranzley
John Kranzley

Abreu or EY will get the start today in LF, and they will lose because of it.

mets74
mets74

@rubiconx0 I like Troy, but this is a trade that should not be done. He'll be 30 opening day 2015, his contract runs thru 2020 with an option in 2021. Yes, he is a great player, but with his injury history and age, it is not a wise move. 

mets74
mets74

@Jay Cross Just a few short months and they're back! We don't see that many movies in theaters, but will be there for the sequel. 

Jay Cross
Jay Cross

@mets74 Bo Dallas, an inspiration to millions! Well played, sir. 

James
James

@mets2death Flores has no defensive ability at SS and we already have a 2B who is about as limited as it gets that we can't not have in the lineup.


Now the question is why they didn't just keep Flores in LV learning the position instead of warming a bench in NY I don't know, I guess it was to scare Tejada.

shawnp6986
shawnp6986

Uhhh,ok.....They havent been "doing them"since you posted you"re "do you"comment,whatever that all means?

1harris1
1harris1

@John Kranzley  Anything is possible with Terry, but I don't think that will be the case.  I think they're going to give Kirk an extended look here, at least against right handed starters.

Doubleday
Doubleday

@mets2death Never has a 22 year old kid on a 19 game hitting streak attracted so much ire from the misinformed.

Nick Squatrito
Nick Squatrito

I agree plus Tulo has consistently proven to be injury prone. Great hitter but correct me if I'm wrong, being injury prone was one of the reasons Alderson listed for not resigning Reyes. As for Flores, we do not know if he can or can't hit major league pitching. As I've said countless times on here, even all stars will not be able to find a groove at the plate playing once every 5 games. Hitting is a difficult thing and you need consistent reps. At least give the guy a chance before we declare he sucks and cannot hit

Nicholas Vargas
Nicholas Vargas

They're producing but we can't forget about DeGrom and Montero. Mets pitching is really good now... imagine how it's going to be next year.

lindro88
lindro88

Good explanation. We winning tonight?

lindro88
lindro88

They probably don't think he's ever going to be a good enough defensive SS.

lagaresfamiliafan
lagaresfamiliafan

@Doubleday @mets2death he's hitting in las vegas which gives him a really big advantage. It's like hitting in colorado and the pitchers are just as good as the rockies pitchers there

hankypanky
hankypanky

The Flores defenders remind me of the Valdespin cult.

1harris1
1harris1

@Doubleday @mets2death  What's ridiculous is when people start reciting Wilmer's major league stats thus far, as if that's conclusive as to what kind of player he'll be.  You don't know what you have in a player until he gets regular playing time over an extended period.  Until then, spare us the nonsense with the stats.

nncyel
nncyel

@Doubleday @mets2death It's not the kid who is attracting ire, it's the knuckleheads who want to trade Murphy and plug in Flores or trade Duda and plug in Flores, or demote Tejada and plug in Flores. It would be nice if Flores showed that he could handle major league pitching before you make those moves don't you think? He probably will one day, but right now he doesn't seem ready. Fans are excited about Mets winning a little. Why take a chance on an unproven player just because you think he has promise (which he does) - how about trying to win games in the here and now?

Nick Squatrito
Nick Squatrito

So were going to have an 8 man rotation but no one to drive in runs? Wow sounds fantastic

lindro88
lindro88

Looked fine to you. Because he makes routine plays. His range, footwork, etc are obviously not good enough. SS is not a position to give up defense, especially when he's never really hit much any time he's been given a look. Wilmer Flores might be a very good major league hitter one day, but he hasn't shown anything special during the chances he has had. Our team is all about pitching. It's not fair to put two lesser defenders up the middle of the infield. Just my opinion

For_Sale
For_Sale

@hankypanky Don't you dare bring up that name here.  We have enough going on already.  

For_Sale
For_Sale

@1harris1 @Doubleday @mets2death Why would they do that?  I think people just want Flores to play because we have heard about him for so long.  It is hard to believe that he had 300 at bats with us as a 16 year old down in the minors.  It has been 6 years, you hear the name and you think he is ready.  Still only 22, too bad we have a 3b already.

shawnp6986
shawnp6986

Exactly,Nick.No matter how great our rotation will be,none of them can go out every single game and throw a shut out.They"ll keep us in it most nights,but you need some bats and an offense that can score more than 2 or 3 runs a game.

Pitching is rich and deep here in Metsville,the bats not so much,this is where our problem remains.

Aldy,do something,please!If not for this season then no doubt over the winter.Some big HR hitters would be nice,but overall we need clutch hitters that cam drive in the insane amount of RISP we leave on base most nights.

This,will transpire in to wins and contending.

Nicholas Vargas
Nicholas Vargas

I mentioned them because it show the depth of starting pitching we. Signaling a possible should happen. Besides Travis, Juan, Wright, Duda, Granderson and Murphy are producing with the bat. 6/9 spots in the lineup are putting in work. So relax with "Mets can't score runs" comments lol

1harris1
1harris1

@For_Sale @1harris1 @Doubleday @mets2death  His position is obviously the issue with him.  The manager doesn't believe he's a SS, and the team's best hitters currently occupy 3B and 2B. Wilmer struggled when he was up earlier in the season because he wasn't playing regularly.


To me next season he'll either be playing 2B for the Mets or 3B somewhere else.

jenkins
jenkins

@Doubleday @mets2death both. But politically, the electorate is shamefully uninformed and misinformed. Media propaganda is barely a ripple with Mets fans, but the biggest con in politics.

James
James

@imjimmybx Wright's contract is not horrific, and he is the face of the team.  He is still a very good player and will play fine in the second half.  I don't hate the idea of moving him to be honest, but I don't think it will ever happen because the Wilpons like having him as the face of the team.  So long as they spend to make sure that we can afford a good team and Wright I have no problem with it at all.