StackOfMoney

Sandy Alderson expects the 2014 payroll to be higher than $85m

Last month, Sandy Alderson said the Mets would have a higher payroll than the $87 million he estimated the team paid in 2013.

However, while talking to reporters in Orlando yesterday, he lowered the 2013 number to $85 million.

“It’s very hard to predict where we’re going to come in,” Alderson said. “There may be some opportunities that arise for us that may be unanticipated and we maybe have a chance to pursue. I just can’t tell you exactly where we’re going to be. I don’t want to set up expectations one way or another.”

Matthew Cerrone, Lead Writer

Dec. 9: This seems low. I try not to judge payroll, because it’s hardly the end-all, be-all to winning. Also, I’d rather wait to see where it comes in at the end of year, not the early part of the off-season. That said, most MLB teams will say payroll is a direct reflection of revenue, with most teams spending around half of revenue on talent. Forbes estimated $250 million in revenue for the Mets, but anyone I’ve asked repeatedly says that’s high (as are more of the Forbes numbers for MLB teams). So, I’ve had MLB money guys say $100 million or so it reasonable for the Mets. Why is it likely to be lower than that? I don’t know. It could be strategy, it could be a bluff, it could be financial pressure, it could be preference… I’m sure Alderson will be asked before the end of the Winter Meetings, so stay tuned…

Michael Baron, Contributor

Dec. 8: This is notable because – earlier in the off-season – Alderson used $87 million as the baseline for 2014. It’s not clear if he was lowering his expected payroll projection for 2014 or not. It certainly didn’t sound like a hard cap or any kind of goal. I can see why someone might hear this and think he’s saying the team is lowering payroll for 2014. However, it’s also possible he was simply saying it will be above $85 million, and not the higher figure that he floated earlier this winter, yet still be in the ballpark projected.

197 comments
ken1010
ken1010

The WSJ reported that ticket and suite revenue alone for the Yankees was "$295 million through Sept. 30 this year, according to public records reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. That is down from $353 million in 2012, $377 million in 2011 and $384 million."  The decline is attributed to missing the playoffs.


In other words, the Mets should be able to approach $250m or more in ticket sales with a winning team, and that doesn't even count TV revenue, merchandising and other revenue sources.  Total revenue should be closer to $350m.


They should put a $140m product on the field, like they used to have, try to be in the race and win 90 games, so as to draw 3 million people.  

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

I see the Mets adding Matt Joyce and Escobar and winning maybe 82 games. Kemp or bust.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

Ike Davis throw in Duda for Escobar is a fair deal.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

I don't get why we care about the payroll this year. I'm happy with 87 mil if that's all the payroll is going to be as long as we are creative and get the right players. Currently we are at 73 mil more like 58 mil if we trade Niese, Davis, Duda, Murphy Montero. We have in house options at 2nd base with Flores, EYJ, Satin.


Maybe something like Niese for Nick Franklin of Seattle.


Than trade Franklin along with Montero maybe Plawecki, Murphy to the Dodgers for Kemp and all of his salary. Kemps salary would bring the payroll up to 79 mil. With 8-10 mil to get us a SS and a back end starter. 


Trade Ike Davis and Duda to Tampa Bay for Escobar. I think that is a fair deal. Davis could play 1st Duda DH. Currently the Rays have Rodriguez at 1st base. Davis is just the kind of players the Rays are looking for cheap with lots of potential.

cp3melo
cp3melo

Arroyo would not be a smart move on limited funds.Mets need to trade for a SS ,second baseman(if Murphy is traded) and an innings eater.Sign Nelson Cruz and trade EY jr. or play him at second base.

Erin II
Erin II

Or... Or, it could be the nearly 1 Billion in crushing debt that is coming due over the next 2 years that they thought Uncle Bernie would be paying down.

MMIAA
MMIAA

what is Matt squabbling about? Over 85M that's what SA said. 100M is bigger then 85M........what part of that doesn't he get

p8erbaghad
p8erbaghad

If the Mets don't make $250 mil in total revenue, the Pope isn't Catholic. 

fedupfan13
fedupfan13

Hey maybe spin boy is in the loop. Maybe the Mets are leaking 85m so when they spend 100m they could say ownership went above and beyond. Meanwhile they still shortchanged us but it looks like they stretched

preplgm
preplgm

Maybe this is strategy and Sandy is trying not to exposes his hand .This could just be his poker face. If however it isn't I am through with this team! I have a giving them the benefit of the doubt since I was six years old. 85 million it's not acceptable for a New York team I don't care what the revenue stream was last season. There would be more revenue if there was a better product on the field. I don't understand how Seattle can throw 250 million at a player yet the Mets are acting like a small town team and getting away with it. Again this better be his poker face

Bob Giacalone
Bob Giacalone

I hate to say it, but another reason they won't spend money is that fans STILL go to the stadium, despite the terrible, terrible, team. I'd guarantee a quick spending spree if the seats were empty.

sylow59
sylow59

$87M - $85M = $2M

this is rounding. This is not "notable"

Victor Triguero
Victor Triguero

This is the most active the Mets have been in several years. I am willing to wait to see the final product before I make judgment. Them signing Granderson has put me at temporary ease. Let us see what happens

Metsopotamia
Metsopotamia

Spend money, smartly to put a better product on the field. Free agents, trades whatever. More winning puts more fans in the seats buying food, souvenirs etc, team wins more, team makes more money in the end. Sounds so simple and not being behind the scenes I am sure its more complex than that. If you are in a small market you run things differently. But spend more to make more is a big city equation

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

Payroll is at 73 mil now. Get rid of Davis, Murphy, Duda, Niese and its at 58 mil. 


Do a three way deal with Seattle and the Dodgers. Add Kemp's 21 mil per. And we are at 79 mil still leaves us 8-10 mil to sign a starting pitcher to replace Niese.


I could care less how much the payroll is as long as they spend it on the right players. Kemp, Granderson, Wright would fu cking sell massive amounts of tickets. Especially when Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Mejia are dealing it on a daily basis.

fedupfan13
fedupfan13

250m /50% 125m + 20m mlb /50% +10m +35m SNY /50% 17.5m. Payroll 152m at 50% of revenue the exact number we have been saying they should spend???at that's after they pay huge debt before they can get the SNY money....if not for the loans SNY would generate waaaay more

marvmarv
marvmarv

Just part of the game of lowering the number without people realizing. jeff probably called him after he mentioned $87M and said the budget was $85 so Sandy used his twenty dollars in his pocket and said over $85M. This budget and this ownership is a joke for a NY sports team. Let's also remember, those shares they sold, didn't get invested in the club. The Wilpons have to go. They don't have the wherewithal, plain and simple, to be baseball owners.

metman9
metman9

If the number is lower then that means Sandy is anticipating moving a few more contracts like Murph and Davis to make room for additional players.   Figuring he is trying to make trades that set the Mets up for low cost young position players, if he moves Murphy he better get value cause despite his short comings is a great offensive producer and will be tough to replace at 5-6 mill that he costs.  His low salary (low for other teams) should help fetch a nice package of prospects, hopefully one that is close to the bigs.  Cant trade for 2 guys in A ball thats too far away and too much unknown.

Eli Battistoni
Eli Battistoni

The Mets should not be 'crippled' with an 87-million dollar payroll.  I truly find it hard to believe that playing in the biggest market in the world and we have to be more 'careful' in spending money.

Look... It may be OK in KC or Colorado, here it is unacceptable.  Go out and keep making this team better!  No more excuses!!

Mark
Mark

If you spend a minimum of $100 million on QUALITY, PROVEN, TALENTED, PROVEN players in NY you WILL not maybe but WILL make your money back and some.  Why because NY'ers want to see a good product on the field that will compete and they will spend to watch, cheer, and support.  Get these bums (ownership and GM) out of here if they can't or won't understand this fact.  Look at the top spending teams in the league and then check their records and attendance.

fedupfan13
fedupfan13

Matt who is your source that says 100m is ok. Look at the damn table somebody posted below. Keep in mind all of these teams get an extra 20m or so this year. Counting SNY the mets had at least 300m in revenue now they are getting at least 20m more. That was with a terrible team, if they finish off the roster and win those numbers will soar. How about asking Fred where the 200m or so that isn't going to payroll is going

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

Seattle's equivalent in a deal for Kemp would be. Taijan Walker and Nick Franklin. 

Mets equivalent would be Montero, Murphy, Niese.


Maybe a three way deal can be made?


Dodgers receive: Montero, Murphy, Nick Franklin. Allowing them to slide Hanley to 3rd base.Franklin to SS. Use Murphy as the utility guy. Montero the pitching prospect.


Seattle receives: Jon Niese. Low cost lefty, young mid rotation pitcher with potential number 2 stuff to pair with King Felix, Walker.


Mets receive: Matt Kemp and his salary with Dodgers kicking in some dough.

Sam Choi
Sam Choi

@hwabouthat Um...maybe because Choo and Cruz are better than Chris Young (definitely better than Lagares). Maybe because Drew is better than Tejada. Maybe because we don't have a 5th starter and Jimenez and Arroyo are still out there.


You're foolish to think more money doesn't help.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

Are you kidding me? Wasting money on Arroyo. For what? To be a 75 win team? F uck innings eaters who make a ton of money. Get me Harang or Santana on a 1 year deal. And go for Kemp. Trade Davis for any SS who can hit.

p8erbaghad
p8erbaghad

@MMIAA so is $85.1 mil.  But THAT isn't "higer than $87 mil" which Alderson previously said.

p8erbaghad
p8erbaghad

@preplgm What has this front office done to lead you to think this is just Alderson's poker face? 

Jonathan Bonanno
Jonathan Bonanno

@Bob Giacalone opening day tickets are already available on discount ticket sites.  management would have to be deaf, dumb, and blind not to realize that fans are fed up.

oh. wait.  under "deaf, dumb and blind" in the dictionary is a picture of Jeff Wilpon.  so I take back what I said.

fedupfan13
fedupfan13

Exactly. They know that there is a revenue floor. They don't think that's it's worth the risk to spend to reap the ceiling of profits.

metstastic
metstastic

Seriuously, are we going to make a big issue over $2M?

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

I don't see them NOT getting another big time name to pair up with Wright and Grandy. I mean why pay for Grandy if all they are going to do is trade for Matt Joyce or Escobar? That makes them a 79-80 team win at best with a higher payroll if you count the loss in production from Marlon Byrd and Daniel Murphy. Mets fans would still be pissed as they didn't do ENOUGH to put a winning team on the field. Kemp makes to much sense at this point and can be had without giving up Syndergaard. Take on the contract rid yourselves of the Davis's, Murphy's, Duda''s and Niese's of the world and make it happen.

mrnegative
mrnegative

Dude, the dodgers and mariners can get a better package of players for Franklin and Kemp. I saw the deal you proposed in your other post. The mets don't have the prospects or players besides Thor and Wheeler to trade. Trading Niese and Murphy also makes the team worse.

PanchoVilla
PanchoVilla

@Eli Battistoni Exactly...prove to us that you want to be winners.  This is a minor league payroll.  If they can't afford the team they need to sell.

sylow59
sylow59

You'd give Niese, Murphy, and Montero for a guy coming off two shoulder surgeries and microfracture surgery on his ankle? He is never going to be the same.

denelor
denelor

@hwabouthat Kemp & a huge salary for a legit lefty starter, a solid starting second baseman and a top pitching prospect is an overpay.  Put Franklin in the Mets column, add Duda or Davis to Seattle and another young player from Seattle to LA.  

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

If It's Taijan Walker and Nick Franklin... That's the Mets equilivent of Synderguard and probably D'Arnaud. Not Montero and Murphy.


Walker was the #5 prospect in baseball last year and Franklin the #45-50....

metstastic
metstastic

That happens with every sport/event. Everyone is just trying to make a buck.

fedupfan13
fedupfan13

Didn't you just post the demonstrably false piece? Think it was removed

fedupfan13
fedupfan13

Did they just delete your other post

fedupfan13
fedupfan13

It was rhetorical. Tell your boy megdal to try to get on the fan.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

That's the price you pay. And who said he will never be the same? That dude is a monster entering his prime years. He will begin his season with us at age 29 and his contract is til age 34. Prime time real estate their. It's not like he is 32 signed through age 38.

Before the injury he was the most durable player in all of MLB playing in "399 straight games" which was the longest running streak at the time. But if it's him not coming back to form your offbase.

2013 he got off to the slow start which you can blame on the shoulder injury which doctors told him he won't be able to swing a bat til January. That's a long layoff and it took some time to shake off the "rust". As you can see by his numbers by the end of the season he was rounding into form.

2013 small sample size stats


July .368 avg, 429 obp, 895 slugging, 1.323 ops.


Sept .314 avg, 385 obp, 486 slugging, 870 ops.

 


ID PUT KEMP AT FIRST AND SAVE HIS LEGS.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

Montero, Murphy, Niese is not equivalent to Walker and Franklin?


Wow, how fans really undervalue our players and over value other teams prospects. Look at what happened to Pineda. Highly regarded, nothing. Murphy, Montero, Niese are solid. Montero yet to be proven but he is very talented and is a high ranked prospect.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

That three way deal allows the Mariners to keep Walker while the Dodgers receive, Montero, Murphy, Nick Franklin and salary relief.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

That's why I added Jon Niese. Niese is PROVEN. Murphy is PROVEN. Montero is a very solid pitching prospect.

sylow59
sylow59

Grady Sizemore q.e.d.

BringBackDaveTelghe
BringBackDaveTelghe

@Mark Kelly Walker's star has fallen quite a bit this year.  His CB has gotten worse and he has some delivery issues.  Most likely the reason Seattle is willing to sell.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

No one is giving up a top pitching prospect for an injured Kemp and taking on his salary. It's either one or the other. Taijan Walker plus Nick Franklin plus salary for Kemp is not smart for Seattle. Especially if they are going to play him in the outfield on astro turf. Seattle better of keeping Walker getting Niese and spending that money on Choo. Kemp makes the most sense for the Mets who need a real boost in star power. Seattle needs to keep its pitching especially with Cano in the fold.

sylow59
sylow59

http://m.espn. go. com/general/story?storyId=9860790&city=losangeles&src=desktop

He had microfracture surgery on his ankle.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

That is exactly why it is a 3 way deal. Niese going to Seattle and the Dodgers getting Nick Franklin. I was merely comparing what Seattle had to offer to the Dodgers straight up with what the Mets had to offer. Which allows Seattle to keep Walker with the Mets sending Montero instead. While the Dodgers get salary relief a 3rd baseman in Murphy, saves them money on Uribe btw. Nick Franklin and Montero who could be used as trade bait or they can shift Murphy to utility role as he can play 3rd 2nd and 1st base and put Franklin at SS. Super utility guys like Murphy and Derosa usually get around 18 mil for 4-5 years.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

Last 3 years in games played

Kemp 340 of 486 70%

Wright 370 of 486 76%


Played nearly as much as Wright. Kemp is only 28 and signed only through Age 34. Wright is 30 and signed thru age 37. Make Virtually the same money (20 for wright and 21 for Kemp). 


WAR the last 3 years:

Wright: 1.7,  7.4. 6 total of 15.1

Kemp: 8.4, 3.2, -.4 total of 11.2

---------------------------------------------------


We aren't disagreeing that he's going to be traded. I just don't think the Dodgers are going to trade Kemp and his 128 million for Murphy (lets give him 18 thru Arb) Neise (42 Mill thru 2018) they are pretty much saving 68 million. And on a yearly basis this year 10, next year 8 following year 4... So over the next 3 years they will only save 1 year of Kemp's contract.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

Nope. Not really. Wright IS the Mets. Without Wright the Mets are nothing. Dodgers have proven they can win without Kemp. Kemp is an injury risk as well which is WHY he would cost less in prospects and which is WHY he is going to be dealt to a team who is willing to take his salary. Another reason is the Dodgers don't print money and they have to pay and fill other holes on the team. Kershaw and Hanley are not going to be cheap.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

It's not... Murphy is a fine 2nd baseman, and Neise is a Fine Pitcher. 


Walker has a Matt Harvey Ceiling. And Franklin is a 22 year old who was the #40-#50 prospect in baseball, can hit and field at SS. 


Murphy is 28, and a solid 2nd baseman about to make 8 mil a year. Neise is a 27 year old lefty who got a friendly contract. And Montero is a nice SP prospect who many see on the Level of Neise and Gee. 


A counter offer to think of. Would the mets trade Wright for a Murphy, Neise and Montero level prospect? Essentially that's what your asking the Dodgers to do.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

Sandy said Syndergaard is off the table. Syndergaard is more valuable than Kemp and his salary to this franchise. No other team is offering up their Syndergaard to get Kemp either. Seattle is the closest and even Taijan Walker is flawed. Mets have the pieces the Dodgers need. Walker is not far and above a guy like Montero. So giving Seattle Niese for Franklin than trading Franklin, Montero, Murphy to the Dodgers helps all three teams. Kemp can play 1st base for us to save his legs. Dodgers cant keep trotting Kemp in the OF either.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

That's just GM speak. Because there was just a plethora of very solid OF on the market. With Ellsbury, Choo, Granderson, Beltran. He's trying to increase the value of Kemp as he knows he really wants to rid himself of that contract. He still has Kershaw, and Ramirez to worry about. Along with a 3rd baseman or a SS depending on if Hanely moves to 3rd. Just by the fact he mentioned Puigs name tells me he is bull shi tting. No way is Puig going anyplace. Either's contract would have to be completely eaten by the Dodgers who would receive maybe an A ball prospect in the deal. No one is giving up top talent to take on the contracts even a portion of them of Crawford or Ethier. They just are not that good.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

From the LA Times 13 hours ago:


The Dodgers have also received inquiries on outfielders Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig. Colletti said he would consider trading one for a package of minor league prospects.

However, if the Dodgers trade Kemp, they would be trading him when his value is at an all-time low. And Colletti said the Dodgers wouldn't make a deal for the sake of making a deal, noting the shortage of top-level outfielders who are expected to be available in free agency in coming off-seasons.

"There's a lack of impact outfielders that are going to be available," Colletti said. "We've looked at the list and it's not overloaded. We can't sell off to sell off, and then, in 2015, be saying, 'We need to go get an outfielder.' "

----------------------------------------

Again a Package of Minor League Prospects, means multiple TOP prospects. 


Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

I just don't see it happening for that Package.. See him traded... Hope it's the mets... Just don't see it for this particular package. 


I can see Murphy included.... and potentially dealing Neise and Montero and Ike... Just don't know what it will take to pry kemp away.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

That's why it's a three way deal. Dodgers dump Kemp's salary. Spend it elsewhere. Mets take on the risk, sell some Kemp jersey's hope he can bounce back. Seattle gets a nice lefty in Niese on a team friendly contract. Dodgers get Murphy whom they been wanting along with a pitcher who has a ton of potential in Murphy and Nick Franklin a 22 year old second baseman who can hit.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

We shall see then. I'm going to guess they still get a TOP prospect or another teams salary in return. 


I doubt they move Kemp for .30 on the $ of value.


If the mets oculd trade Montero, Murphy and Neise for Kemp i'm do cartwheels. That's Grand Theft.

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

They ARE moving Kemp. Just cause they have a boat load of money doesn't mean they are going to spend a shi t load of it. The Dodgers still have to extend Hanley and Kershaw and they have proven they could win WITHOUT Kemp. They get rid of the injury risk while saving 127 mil and getting back a few decent players who can help in the process. Ethier isn't going anywhere without them paying almost his entire contract. Either is not worth trading for AND taking on the money. Kemp is their only real option.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

LA wouldn't trade Kemp just for salary relief. They would move Ethier for that. 


Teams don't trade good players just to trade them... The dodgers aren't Cash Strapped... They don't HAVE to move Kemp


They would still want top talent in return for arguably one of the best OFers in baseball when he's healthy (2 years ago arguably the MVP).


Same with trading with Colorado for CarGo... Want to trade Wright for a teams not a top prospect and some mid-level throw ins like Murphy and Neise???

hwabouthat
hwabouthat

That is why you take on the ENTIRE salary. The more the Mets take on the less it costs in prospects. That's how it works. If we wanted L.A to pay for a good amount on the contract then yea Syndergaard would have to go.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

Still not going to get away with not trading your top talent. 


Have to give something to get something 99 times out of 100. Your not getting Kemp while holding onto Synderguard.