Opinion: Mets will try, but Tulowitzki not likely to be dealt during next 18 months

Matthew Cerrone, Lead Writer

The Rockies are not going to trade SS Troy Tulowitzki this season, a good friend who works with the Rockies predicted when I talked to him earlier this week. Instead, despite how they’ve handled him in the past, Colorado will seriously consider moving him for three or four, top major-league prospects this winter.

Tulowitzki currently leads the National League in batting average, on-base and slugging percentage, he’s third in home runs and tops in Wins Above Replacement.

However, earlier this week, he was put on the disabled list with a hip flexor strain, which he suffered running out a ground ball the previous weekend. It’s a small injury, but it comes on the heels of him missing roughly 30 percent of all games due to some sort of injury since 2010. Also, he has not played more than 130 games in a season since 2011, he’s 29-years-old and has six years and $118 million remaining on his current contract after this season.


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“The contract makes (trading him) an impossible situation,” a non-New York GM told columnist John Harper (Daily News, July 23). “If you’re the Rockies, he’s your franchise player having a great year, so you can’t just dump the contract. If you’re going to trade him to start a rebuild, you need a package of high-end prospects to justify it to your fans. But if you’re on the other side, you can’t justify taking on that contract AND emptying the farm system for a shortstop with a history of leg injuries. Because, you know, as he heads into his 30s those leg injuries are likely to happen more often.”


The Mets are going to check in on him, if they haven’t already, I’ve heard. In addition, I talked to a National League scout last week who believes the Mets have more than enough pitching prospects, along with one of their young catchers, to acquire a player like Tulowitzki, especially if they’re taking on his contract. For what it’s worth, he said the Yankees will never be able to meet Colorado’s asking price…

I still think Tulowitzki is Alderson’s White Whale and I’ve heard from friends in Colorado that something like Jon Niese, Travis d’Arnaud and a top pitching prospect could get it done, because it brings back proven players that can be marketed and help win now.

That said, my bet is Tulowitzki — again — doesn’t get dealt in the next 18 months. Why? It’s looking the Rockies may soon bring in a totally new front office and I can’t imagine a new regime dealing its most popular player as its first move. This, plus the contract, plus in the injuries, says to me that he’s more likely to get dealt after next season.




227 comments
dabo
dabo

Giving up so much talent or perceived talent would be difficult but think about what would come back in that trade.  The Mets would be the best team in the NL east and possible the entire NL.  This trade would put the Mets in the playoff hunt if not the playoffs for years to come.  Make the trade give up whatever you have to!!!!!!

jcain316
jcain316

If the Mets can get Tulo for Travis, Niese and a pitching prospect then do it. We have 8-9 pitchers for 5 rotation spots.  Tulo would never hit as many HR's as he can in Colorado but the guy is a 300 average hitter lifetime and last year in 126 games put up 25 and 80.  Who cares if he misses 25 games a season.  His #'s in 130 games is better than 3 years of our shortstops.  We have Plawecki in the wings, and travis hasn't exactly lived up to his billing so far.  The only drawback to that would be losing our only left handed pitcher.  


I would like if the prospect wasn't Noah but if so then still do it.  Next year if Harvey comes back you have at least 7 pitchers vying for 5 spots.  Sign a lefty in the off season and move some younsgters to the pen.  Lets follow the Cardinals way of thinking....it works (see Wainwright, Adam).  Get another outfielder and fix that god awful bullpen for good.


Then we can talk about competing.  An infield of Wright, Tulo, Murphy and Duda is pretty damn good offensively.  An outfield of Lagares, Granderson and maybe sign Alex Rios (who most likely wil be bought out)

Marc Singleton
Marc Singleton

Tulo's numbers would obviously drop going from Coors to Citi. He's nearly 30 and is not exactly Cal Ripken Jr. Any deal for him would be " over paying".

Mets need another Piazza situation to present itself, but I don't see that happening . That was like a winning lottery ticket for the Mets .

Marc Singleton
Marc Singleton

There's not going to be a winter during the next 18 months?!

What about dealing Montero, Syndagaard, Pawlaski, Flores, and 2 lesser proscpects for both Tulo and Cargo... sounds crazy but Mets would be talking on a lot of salary and giving back a lot of Talent

Pat Brady
Pat Brady

I really don't see Alderson giving up a boat load of young players for a 30 + year old guy who misses a lot of time with injuries and makes a lot of money. We already have a guy like that. Who sees the Wilpons adding another 20 mill per year player to the team? Anyone? Cargo is a possibility but only if it was for far less in the way of prospects. He makes a lot of money, misses a lot of time and is a Coors Field hitter for the most part. 

robby
robby

Tulo is injury prone.  That would be a disaster of a trade with all that money owed.  if sandy does that trade, which i don't think he would because he likes to tease the met fans into thinking he would but never does.  but if he does do it it would be a mistake

ken1010
ken1010

If we are going to give away three good pitchers and a catcher, I'd rather build a team around Goldschmidt than Tulowitski.  Goldschmidt is younger, less injury prone, cheaper and arguably as good a hitter.  If we're going to empty the farm system and trade several quality guys, we have to be sure the person we get back is ideal.

Edwin Cruz
Edwin Cruz

I would love to have Cargo.......Tulo is to injury prone.  Cannot give up Niese. He is your only lefty on the staff.  Castro would be better. A lead off hitter with great promise.

Scrubs
Scrubs

For the first time in ages (if ever), the Mets are in a position of strength. We have what other teams so desperately need, pitching. Please Sandy Alderson, do NOT give away out strength for less than a young, controllable bat who is ML ready or already in MLB.  And a proven young SS. No more prospects. No Coors Field type one-dimensional players borderline OTH.  The baseball gods are converging over Citifield after a LONG absence.  DO NOT BLOW THIS!

@Brother Blaque
@Brother Blaque

That's right go get Tulo. I hear Johan Santana's spot on the disabled list is available. 

qualcomm
qualcomm

Niese, Kevin Plawecki and Montero?

hashburry
hashburry

Of course the Mets will check in.  Then they'll check out.  But in this case, it is best that they stay conservative because Tulo is not the same player away from Coors Field and he's on the downside with all the physical ailments.  He's one of those guys that has zero body fat and is always on the DL as a result.  The Mets won't take on his contract, and they can get probably get something else (Castro?) for less in terms of trade chips.

Quentin Haynes
Quentin Haynes

If the Mets are going to make a long-term commitment and pay someone big bucks this summer, it should be Giancarlo Stanton. Period. 

John Cucci
John Cucci

Why would Miami, whose pitching is about as good as ours, trade Stanton w/in the division? Stanton isn't an option for the Mets.

Andrew Knudsen
Andrew Knudsen

Would rather play Flores at short for the next few years. If Hanley can make it work defensively so can Flores.

BringBackDaveTelghe
BringBackDaveTelghe

It makes zero sense to empty the system, pay a ton for a guy who 's aging and always injured.

drmetfan
drmetfan

Acquiring Tulo would take a lot. You are talking about top prospects and the Mets probably taking on the rest of his contract. That is a lot regardless of how good he is. Also, he is too injury prone. For that I rather the Mets sign a SS in the off season or perhaps trade for a younger, talented SS under team control for years to come. I know, I know, who could that SS be? There are many options. The Cubs, D-Backs, Mariners and Indians have a surplus in that position. However, I would prefer to see the Mets engage with the Cubs and/or Indians in trade talks for a SS.

Angela Cole
Angela Cole

If the trade is made, I don't believe he is worth more than two prospects.  Those leg injuries concern me.  In addition, I'd have the Rockies eat some of that contract.  Let us come out on the plus side of a deal for a change.  Let them meet our price, not their price.

spelletrader
spelletrader

This reeks of invented rumor. Is anyone else reporting on this?

Mud Flap
Mud Flap

If you're going to trade prospects, roll the dice a little. If we have a surplus of arms, work out a deal for a hard-hitting good glove prospect or two at SS or LF. Do a prospects-for-prospects deal that fills the bill for both teams. That way the money stays for other deals and your hot shot young arms hopefully get you some hot shot young bats. 

Mud Flap
Mud Flap

Please, for the love of God, do NOT pay for the likes of Tulo. He is an average to above average player away from Coors, with tons of money left to pay PLUS the expected parting of ways with several top prospects/players?


Would go down as one of the worst deals in Met history. Spend that money on a couple of promsing/solid bats and KEEP the prospects.

Jason Martinez
Jason Martinez

The bullpen is not no where near being awful. And they need to keep D'Arnaud.

If they can really replace the shoes of Niese then ok. Travis is the catcher of the future. You can't let this guy off your hands. Wheeler was looking so so a while ago and putting questions in peoples mind and look how he's turning the corner. Travis hasn't really turned the full corner aswell but he's shown great signs after being called back up. He's fast for a catcher, young, has a strong arm, good athleticism behind the plate at his age, and look at how hard the ball smashes off his bat almost everytime he makes contact---

This guy to me is too valuable. No one thought the mets could pull off the trade to get him and he is here now.

jcain316
jcain316

@Marc Singleton Tulo's away stats are still averaging 275 average with 26 homers and 90 rbis per 162 games.  If he played 140 games thats still 22 homers and 78 rbis.  Still the best offensive shortstop based on a 140 game schedule and just his away splits.  Worth the risk.

Marc Singleton
Marc Singleton

You would hope so, but according to Matt Sandy wants Tulo, so I can see him making a poor decision to get him.

jcain316
jcain316

@ken1010 Goldscmidt makes $6M a year for the next 4 years.  I would rather build a team around Mike Trout or Stanton, but unfortunately Trout is not available and so far Stanton isnt either and neither is Goldschmidt.  Tulo likely is or will be.

jcain316
jcain316

@Edwin Cruz You mean the same Cargo that hasn't played more than 145 games in any year hes been in the league.  Avg games played of 130 in the last 4 years....that Cargo?  Tell me more how Tulo is imjury prone and Cargo isnt.  130 is the same avg games played as Tulo if you take out his 2012 season when he missed 110 games because of surgery and becuase Colorado was out of contention and didn't want to risk playing him after groin surgeyr

jcain316
jcain316

@Scrubs Tulo's away stats 275/26/90 per 162 games. That is phenomenal for a SS....and I know he will only play 140 games a year.


Mets SS YTD 231 average 3 hrs and 32 RBIs

Last year the Mets SS's hit 214 with 2 homers and 33 rbis 

2012 278 average with 6 homers and 51 rbis 


SO basically Tulo averages over 162 road  games almost the same RBI's and 20 more homers than what the Mets SS have done in the last 430 games total


BringBackDaveTelghe
BringBackDaveTelghe

It's blog reporting. We endured a ton of this last offseason. You have non-journalists trying to break sources and get mad when there's any kind of blowback.

qualcomm
qualcomm

Yes, but with a stable environment he should stabilize too. 

crafalko17
crafalko17

@Mud Flap Prospects don't have a great success rate, most flop or get stuck at AAA. That's why it takes so many to get a proven bat.

thwacker
thwacker

@Mud Flap At least CY was signed for just one year.  This would be worse. He would be injured, old and hitting .260. while our prospects would be stars in Denver.

crafalko17
crafalko17

@Mud Flap Like who? Saying "don't get the best player in the NL" simply because he hits well at home is silly. Also his numbers at Citi are better than those at Coors =)


The Mets need a middle of the order bat for next year, where are you going to get that? 

Jason Martinez
Jason Martinez

I would keep Travis,Wheeler,Degrom,Niese, and hopefully with Harvey coming back next season,,, Syndergaud can be added to make the 5 man-- so if they could work around these guys and still get Tulo, that'd be great. If Murphy could be replaced then ok---- maybe for a guy who can hit, defend better, and run a lot faster.

Sandy might have a nice little deal in the bag that won't jeopardize their bright future.

Mud Flap
Mud Flap

@crafalko17 @Mud Flap And yet the entire league is salivating over our minor league and rookie arms. Success rate is irrelevant, because it goes both ways. What matters is how desirable the POTENTIAL for those arms is to the teams that have the players we want. It's a crap shoot both ways. 

Mud Flap
Mud Flap

@crafalko17 @Mud Flap Tulo's not it, not for the money and the additional cost. Plus, factor in he'll be over 30 on opening day and is starting to become injury prone, it's just not worth it. I don't have a potential free agent list in front of me but you can save your prospects and get a couple good bats for all the money Tulo would cost the team. And if you look at his away numbers over the last three years, yes, you can get better production for a lot less money and personnel than a  "Tulo for top prospects plus assume his contract" kinda deal. 

Steven M. Harries
Steven M. Harries

@crafalko17 His numbers at Citi reflect small sample size against a none-too-good pitching staff we fielded in the past.

crafalko17
crafalko17

@Mud Flap @crafalko17 For sure, but the Mets don't need potential imo. They have Herrera/Nimmo/Smith/KP and a ton of pitching. What they need now is a middle of the order bat to solidify the lineup. A 30/100 guy, most of the prospects that have gotten a taste so far have been underwhelming. It's not like we'd be emptying the farm, we still have plenty of arms behind what we trade. But if you think of a lineup with Tulo instead of Tejada or Stanton instead of our rotation of LFs it's pretty amazing what it does and immediately likely gives us the best lineup in the division on top of us not losing anything from the ML rotation or bullpen.


To each their own though. I just think the prospect phase should be over and we should be making a deep playoff push next year.

crafalko17
crafalko17

@Mud Flap @crafalko17 Hoping the injury factor brings the price down a bit or we get some money in return. The Mets don't need more "good bats" They can either go after a mid-range SS for about 13 mil a year over 3-4 years or u can go for the best SS in the NL for 5 years while still in his prime. I'd really rather them try and push for the WS the next 3 years and see how he is in his last 2 seasons.

crafalko17
crafalko17

@Steven M. Harries @crafalko17 The point is that he can hit there and play GG calibur SS while being a middle of the order hitter. Outside of Stanton there isn't really another trade I'd want to make and Stanton's asking price will be much much higher than Tulo's

crafalko17
crafalko17

@borsh13 They will both get around 13 mil a season for 3/4 years where Tulo is around 22 for 5, not a huge difference. Our bullpen is stacked, our rotation looks to be stacked, KP is blocked by TDA at catcher, you have to use these pieces to get something big as we should be in a win-now mode next season.

Steven M. Harries
Steven M. Harries

@crafalko17 Well, it's all fantasy, but I think Stanton puts fear in pitchers. He's still a kid, but he's a veteran like John Tavares, my 23-year-old savior.


Tulowitzki's looking long in the tooth soon - not so much a great risk to take, IMHO.

crafalko17
crafalko17

@Steven M. Harries @crafalko17 Stanton would cost much much more than Tulo though and we have a bigger hole at SS than RF. Either way you're right, we'll see what happens this offseason. I'd take either one for sure, just think Tulo would be cheaper, shorter contract and fill a bigger need.