Opinion: 2014, slip sliding away…

Matthew Cerrone, Lead Writer

The way it stands, the second Wild Card spot in the National League may only require 85 wins this season, given the level of parity across the league.

In the last five years, the average second-best Wild Card record had won at least 88 games. However, this season, more than half of the National League is below .500. Unfortunately, the Mets are among them.

To win 85 games this season, the Mets need to go 56-40, while leaping over six teams.


Screen shot 2014-06-13 at 9.16.15 AM


I’m sorry, but I see no evidence that this current roster is capable of that type of turn around. It would be awesome and truly amazing if they could pull it off. I’d be SO happy to be wrong.

However, I can’t see them getting sustained success until they settle in to a consistent lineup, rotation and bullpen, and that can’t happen until they acquire better, consistent players. It’s typical in baseball to use April and May to rotate players and adjust the roster. This happens for every team. But, by June, most rosters are in place, with July and August used for tweaking.

Unfortunately, the majority of the Mets roster has been in flux since June, 2009, and that is still the case exactly five years later and I fear it will continue to be the case all summer…




232 comments
Joe Decesare
Joe Decesare

The players they needed and should have signed, they didnt even offer a contract. The players they didnt need but signed they overpaid for.

jsecurity
jsecurity

Hey Sandy - Davey is available. MAKE A MOVE.

gpopper
gpopper

More proof everyone from Collins on up should be fired for incompetence. Can't for the Wilpons, which is as much a part of the problem as the rest. The last thing I would be thinking about right now is a wild card shot. The focus is on whether the NY Mets can survive as a baseball team. It's unbelievable how bad this team is. The blame goes to the Wilpons, Alderson and Collins' inept managing, even given what he has to manage. I've been a fan since Day 1, 1962 and have never seen such poor administration, managing and playing. This almost makes the Grant Tombs days look successful. Heck of a thing to say. Just totally disgusting.

stage52
stage52

There are only 2 players that do not platoon their position.  Wright & Murphy.   Collins never lets anyone settle in at a position long enough to even judge what they have.  Until Collin's  goes it will not change.

jsecurity
jsecurity

Mets are 2-8 in last 10. I see no indication of that trend changing - including the vote of confidence for TC. With 96 games left At this 2-8 pace the Metsie's don't win 20 more games - the rest of the season! Torture.

MAKE A MOVE. FIRE TC.

dave42
dave42

Why are we looking at Taylor Teagarden and Anthony Recker catch?  Other teams promote players right from AA.  Why not Plawecki?  He's got an OPS of .883 on the season which is 1.009 since May 1.  For comparison, d'Arnaud had a .914 in AA in 2011 and .781 in Bingo last year. 

mi
mi

when is someone going to go to citi with a sell the team sign and get some recognition in the papers 

Paul Wesolowski
Paul Wesolowski

Unless we get a bat, put a fork in this season, we are done!

BringBackDaveTelghe
BringBackDaveTelghe

Here's the thing....I don't think the offense is struggling all that much....it's doing pretty much what any person expected from this group.  Look around the horn and compare the production to the expected production.  Remember....the analysis here is comparting to what you EXPECTED from these guys to begin with.  I think this helps yield the conclusion that either this team wasnt serious about winning in '14 or we're just being blatantly lied to.

C: Way below expected with absolutely no backup options.

1B: Slightly below expected for what Duda would produce.

2B: Above expected.

SS:  Average Expected (which is hideous!)

3B: Below average

LF: Expected (not sure why people are surprised CY and EYJ struggled, both are terrible)

CF: Below Average (Lagares has been hurt twice but has done well when in the lineup.  Kurt and MDD have both been predictably terrible.

RF: Slightly below average.  Recovering from awful April stretch. 

Tom Kraupner
Tom Kraupner

Wildcard? Not this team. The starting pitching is holding things up right now but the hitting and fielding is horrible. I blame Alderson. Kiss this season goodbye

1swunglow
1swunglow

I'm shocked we're only 5.5GB while being 8 games under .500! I'm not saying we're going to make a charge, but the way the Met's are playing, I would think 15GB would have been more likely. 

90wins
90wins

This season is already over. The Mets should just lose all the remaining games and at least they will get the first draft pick next year. Citi field is not going to get any more empty than yesterday.

John John
John John

Whoa, an honest piece by Cerrone??!!  What happened to we're really close, or I believe the team can and will perform better, or we'll start winning one run games.  This is the closest I've seen Matt come to admitting that the broke a** ownership and its inability to spend money on real players is the reason they are in last place.  Bravo, Bravo, you're finally starting to get what all of us have known for five years now.

They don't care what the fans think as long as there are bodies in the ballpark.  We need to get back to the days of 1979 and 1980 when 800,000 fans showed up and the upper deck was closed.  THAT is the only message that Morn#1 and Moron#2  will understand. 

But if you pay money to see this garbage, then STFU because you are enabling the behavior of the front office.

They aren't even worth watching on TV  - except to listen to Keith and Ron.  WFAN kicking them to the curb was the ultimate insult.

Dana Smith
Dana Smith

Can I submit a batting order? They should have a fan batting order contest, where Terry picks one out of a hat. Here's mine.
1 - den Dekker - CF

2 - Flores - SS

3 - Murphy - 2B

4 - Wright - 3B

5 - Duda - 1B

6 - Brown - RF

7 - Campbell - LF

8 - Recker - C

9 - Colon - P

Albert E Lewis
Albert E Lewis

Does Sandy even care what the fans think? He said he signed Young because he could play any OF position ...yeah right.

flmetsfan
flmetsfan

When Alderson was hired at the end of October 2010, he made it clear that he first wanted to take a season to evaluate what he had on the roster. (2011 result 77-85 with a $142,797,166 payroll)

After the 2011 season, Alderson stated that he wanted to see what he had in the minors and whether they could fill in the gaps in the roster.  (2012 result 74-88 with a $ 94,508,822 payroll)

After the 2012 season, Alderson said he wanted to shed the remaining bad contracts, so he could have payroll flexibility.  He also said that the organization was poised to make some key acquisitions to make team better, and that 2014 was the turn around year.  (2013 result 74-88 with a $ 93,684,590 payroll)

After the 2013 season, Alderson was disappointed with the Harvey injury, but still insisted that 2014 was going to be the year the Mets will be turning it around.  During the off season, Alderson grossly overpaid for an unproven Chris Young, overpaid for Curtis Granderson, and gave Bartolo Colon a two year contract.  He made no effort to address the team's need for an upgrade at shortstop, had a first base competition turn into a fiasco, and took a heavy gamble when it came to building a bullpen staff.  (??? with a $ 84,951,365 payroll)

Well, we know one thing Sandy Alderson is good at...cutting payroll.


Payroll source, Cot's Baseball Contracts through BaseballProspectus.com.

Dana Smith
Dana Smith

As long as they keep running Chris Young out there day after day, in the middle of the lineup, nothing will change. He is a rally killer, he doesnt have the range defensively that Lagares or den Dekker posses. He is guaranteed, in a critical spot, to do exactly what the pitcher wants. Ground ball for a DP. strikeout with a man on 3rd and 1 out. High infield pop in foul ground with runners at the corners and 2 out. Yes, there are other issues, but you start with the biggest one and go from there. I wish they would CUT HIM.

Albert E Lewis
Albert E Lewis

Horrible isn't the word for this team it goes beyond that.

stage52
stage52

@gpopper  I have not heard the "Grant's Tomb" reference  in a very long time. LOL

dave42
dave42

@jsecurity  "vote of confidence" is Stengelese for "he won't last til the All-Star Break"

stage52
stage52

@dave42  Because all we know is Plawecki can hit Double A Pitching.  That is it.

Rimo Chaloney
Rimo Chaloney

@mi  How about civil disobedience?  Bunch of people sitting outside Madoff (Citi) Field refusing to budge until the Wilpons sell lol?

nwmets
nwmets

@mi Never -- because it won't work.

dave42
dave42

@Paul Wesolowski  Here is the problem.  Look over the free agents coming up this off-season.  There is (maybe) one who is a potential all-star and still has some kind of prime years left - Hanley Ramirez, who will be 31 next year.  If we're going to get a bat, it will have to be either home-grown or come via trade.

dave42
dave42

@BringBackDaveTelghe  The failure to have a legit back-up catcher is egregious. 


Picking either Duda or Ike over Abreu was barely defendable before the season (I'm being kind). 


Picking between Tejada and Flores at short is vomit-inducing.  (I'd try to package Flores and a pitcher for Pederson from LA.) 


Picking between Youngs is ill-conceived.  Byrd should have been brought back, or Cruz.  If you wanted CY, wait until February and give him $500K like you did Byrd last year.


Giving Granderson four years is brain-dead - even if he hits career average numbers this year, he'll most likely be an albatross by year three. 


To say nothing of the Colon contract... 

Edwin Melendez
Edwin Melendez

@90wins I agree. Blow the team up. Keep the pitching and pitching prospects.  Trade Dice -k, Colon, Duda, Tejada, Eric Young for whatever you can get. Release CY.  Bring up whatever positon prospects you have in the minors and let them develop at in the big leagues. At least then you can tolerate all the losijng.

Bryan McEntee
Bryan McEntee

@John John Every so often he throws us a bone but it will be right back to the propaganda tomorrow

mi
mi

@Dana Smith there are 6 AAA players in that lineup..idk what order you put them in

gpopper
gpopper

It still lingers in the hallways of my mind like a very bad nightmare lol

dave42
dave42

@stage52 @dave42  OK, if that is a known, your options are a) keep him there (no real purpose), bring him up to AAA (where d'Arnaud needs to play everyday), or promote him to the big club where we have no real catcher. 

mi
mi

@nwmets @mi i disagree 100 percent.. noone in the papers ever call for wilpon to sell the team ever

BringBackDaveTelghe
BringBackDaveTelghe

The thing that really is bad about Chris Young...I see what they were going for.  They clearly didn't believe in Lagares and brought in Young whose one discernable skills is good CF defense.  (ironically he's looked like crap out there).  So they wasted $7M of their valuable budget to bring in a guy that ended up being superflous.  I'm not even saying Cruz was the guy, he wouldnt have come here for $7M, but Morse was an option or a guy that played weaker D that but can hit and profiles as a LF'er.

The problem is they couldn't even identify their OWN talent!  We didn't need Young as a backup outfielder with Lagares..,..I'm not sure why they were so down on him but they clearly were.

90wins
90wins

@jsteele1020 Yeah, people who speaks about the 70's always inflate their figures by 100 times to make an impression. 

Dana Smith
Dana Smith

@Albert E Lewis @Dana Smith We dont. I cringe and groan every time I see him in the 5 spot in the lineup. He has a decent game once every two weeks. He's terrible and a pain to watch.

stage52
stage52

@dave42 @stage52  I hear you Dave. I have seen Plawecki play in Bing.  He has a good bat but he needs more time to learn how to catch, call pitches and work on his defense. Just looking at his hitting can be deceiving.

dave42
dave42

@BringBackDaveTelghe  they brought in the back-up CF but not a backup C.  And a Navarro or lesser Molina brother would have cost league minimum...  The worst part about not believing in Lagares is they have two AAAA centerfielders in Vegas who can give you CY numbers for nothing.  They have no such option for catcher. 

jsecurity
jsecurity

Not necessarily, but he will make a terrible situation better. I went to a game in DC vs Nats about a month ago. Sat right behind the Mets dugout. It was clear that the players were not giving it their all. They lacked preparedness, hustle and a winning attitude. In my opinion that comes from a manger that consistently makes poor player decisions, poor in-game management decisions and has lost the respect of the team.

I could be wrong but there is still a big part of me that says even with this poor talent level of hitters/fielders - the pitching is very good and the bullpen could be very good. A change could promt a different attitude and change the complexion of the team. May not contend but would at least be more interesting to watch.

dave42
dave42

@stage52 @dave42  Ah, I see what you're saying now.  If only we had a veteran catcher who could show him the ropes with the big club. 

stage52
stage52

@dave42 @stage52  We do not want to see a repeat of what happened to d'Arnaud because he was rushed through the Minor's too fast despite him missing large chunks of playing time due to injuries. Plawecki will be in Las Vegas when he is ready.

dave42
dave42

@stage52 @dave42  my other complaint is - do we really expect prospects to not hit in Vegas (Puello notwithstanding)?

dave42
dave42

@stage52 @dave42  do you have a sense that Plawecki can improve his defense in a measurable way?  Mikey P never really did. 


My main gripe is watching the roster-fodder we have at catcher these days.  inexcusable.