Costa says the Mets probably won’t broach the subject until at least next winter, as the team wants a “larger sample size” so to better project what Harvey’s future could be in terms of both performance and health.
Costa recently polled a group of students from Pepperdine University who recently won the case competition at an analytics conference put on by the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), and they suggested Harvey receive a four-year contract for around $35 million beginning after the 2014 season.
According to Costa, the panel suggested the Mets wait until after the 2014 so to mitigate any risk of injury to Harvey.
In 12 career starts dating back to last July, Harvey, 24, is 5-5 with a 2.33 ERA, having allowed 46 hits, 30 walks, and five home runs while striking out 89 in 73 1/3 innings.
Michael Baron, ContributorIt’s still a little early to have this discussion about Harvey, but if he keeps up this performance, the Mets might be wise to begin thinking about securing Harvey and avoiding the arbitration process with him. Harvey is represented by Scott Boras, and so I wonder how difficult such an endeavor might be for the Mets.
Given what other young, top-shelf pitching talents have received at a similar age and experience level, the value assigned by the panel at Pepperdine seems fair and reasonable for Harvey. If the Mets could do something like this with Harvey, they would create a similar situation to that of Jon Niese in which they would create a low-risk, high reward scenario with a tremendous talent, and create stability and cost certainty with their pitching staff through Harvey’s arbitration years and first few years of free agency. This is the trend – as Costa points out, the team does assume some theoretical risk, but it prevents a player’s salary from becoming too high and potentially overvalued through the arbitration process.