Matt Harvey and the Year-After-Effect

Mets RHP Matt Harvey is among 11 pitchers at risk of injury this season based on the Year-After-Effect, according to Tom Verducci’s report for SI.com.

In his report, Verducci explains:

“The Year-After Effect is a rule of thumb to identify pitchers who may be at risk because of a sharp increase in workload. The older the pitcher, the bigger the body type and the closer to the 30-inning threshold is their increase, the less they seem to be at risk. Think Matt Harrison of the Rangers, who took a jump of 36 1/3 innings at age 25 in 2011 and pitched very well the next year. Last year I identified 14 young pitchers coming off workload increases of 30 innings or more. Nine of them suffered injuries or significant regression: Derek Holland, Dylan Axelrod, Jaime Garcia, Liam Hendricks, Eric Surkamp, Chris Schwinden, Daniel Hudson, Zach Stewart and Michael Pineda.”

Here is the full list, including details on Harvey, from the SI.com report:

Screen shot 2013-01-23 at 8.41.13 AMLast season, Harvey tossed just 59 big-league innings in 10 starts, but threw 110 innings in Triple-A.

Matthew Cerrone, Lead Writer

The Year-After-Effect is based on protocols established by Rick Peterson when he was pitching coach for the A’s more than 10 years ago. Then, Alderson was still involved with baseball operations in Oakland, as was Paul DePodesta, so it stands to reason these guys use some aspect of this research in determining a young pitcher’s workload. The point being, like last year, I bet they have some sort of innings limit imposed on Harvey again this season. Harvey is not going to like it, just like he didn’t like it last year. And, while Harvey’s build, motion and athleticism should buy him a bit more slack, he’s too important to let him go unfettered. If I had to guess, I bet they have him throw slightly more than the number of innings he did last season, but again that’s a guess.