Matthew Cerrone, Lead Writer
In the last few days, I’ve seen several reports indicating interest and a potential fit between the Mets and Rockies for either SS Troy Tulowitzki or OF Carlos Gonzalez.
Here’s what I have learned talking with team insiders and friends in Colorado and Citi Field, as well as reporters and fans, all involved or following the story over the last week…
Is there a match?
The buzz in baseball this week says the Mets and Cardinals best fit Colorado’s needs.
The Mets may prefer Tulowitzki, but I’m hearing Gonzalez is a far more likely target – not just because of the money, but because of how a deal could shake out…
In a deal for Tulowitzki or Gonzalez, the Mets will be expected to give up some combination of Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki, Brandon Nimmo, etc. Remember, the Rockies are not looking to start a long-term rebuilding process. Instead, they’d like to get players back who can help them win now, while freeing up money to help them reload for next season.
It will cost more to get Tulowitzki than Gonzalez, CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman said today (WFAN, July 29), which is probably why a deal for Gonzalez is seemingly more likely for the Mets than Tulowitzki right now.
Is a deal possible?
Tulowitzki is due about $129 million over the next seven seasons, while Gonzalez will earn $53 million the next three years. The Rockies want the best affordable, now-talent they can get, while also freeing up the most money. So, to get, say, Wheeler and d’Arnaud, and one or two top prospects, the Mets would probably want Colorado to pay a portion of Tulowitzki’s or Gonzalez’s contract.
Naturally, the Mets would prefer to keep their guys. Nevertheless, the Mets can afford the contract and they have plenty of players that interest Colorado. Also, Gonzalez has less money due to him and will likely cost less talent in return. The thing is, I just don’t know that they’ll see eye-to-eye on who is worth what and when. We’ll see.
How will things play out?
I suspect the Rockies know Sandy Alderson’s position and, instead of Sandy making pitches, Colorado is running numbers, scouting reports and weighing deals with other teams. If something were to happen in the next 48 hours, which I doubt it will, I’d say the Mets are only capable of acquiring Gonzalez, who the Rockies seem open to moving at any time for the right deal. Tulowitzki is significantly more complicated than that.
For starters, Tulowitzki can essentially dictate where he wants to go, lots of teams will be interested, he’s adored by Colorado fans and – if the Rockies change front offices – that’s only going to further complicate trading the face of their franchise. This is a big deal for that franchise, a far bigger deal than Gonzalez, and I just can’t see them rushing through it with a Thursday deadline.
In short, based on what I’m hearing, I’d put a Tulowitzki-to-the-Mets outcome at 1 percent, and a CarGo-to-the-Mets outcome at around 25 percent…