Here’s what to expect (and not expect) before the July 31 Trade Deadline

Matthew Cerrone, Lead Writer

Here’s what I’ve learned during the last few weeks talking with insiders, scouts, fans and media — in other markets, as well as with the Mets — as to what we should expect in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline…

The Really Big Bat…

It’s early, but my read on the Mets is that Sandy Alderson will spend more time this summer learning how to acquire a big bat this winter than he will spend time getting someone this July. In talks with insiders who know the market, it just doesn’t sound like that level of a hitter will truly be available in the next three weeks, though he may be in three months…

I talked to a National League scout early this week who emphatically said the Mets have more than enough pitching prospects, along with one of their young catchers, to acquire a good, young position player to help their lineup today.


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However, as is usually the case, every expert tells me that big-time, young hitters, under contract are far more likely to get dealt in the off-season than regular season.

For instance, the buzz from Miami continues to say the Marlins will do one of two things with Giancarlo Stanton this winter: They’ll either sign him to a contract extension or deal him for the best three to four prospects they can find. But, there is no way he gets moved this summer.

That said, I’m sure Alderson will put feelers out to understand Stanton’s value, as I expect he’ll do with Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki, who – like Stanton – is unlikely to get moved now, but almost certainly will be talked about again this winter. I still think Tulowitzki is Alderson’s White Whale and I’ve heard from friends in Colorado that  Jon Niese, Travis d’Arnaud and a top pitching prospect can get it done. But, we’ll see… For what it’s worth, the Yankees may love and can afford Tulowitzki, but they don’t come close to having the players needed to acquire him.

I expect the Mets to knock on White Sox infielder Gordon Beckham, Rangers SS Elvis Andrus and OF Alex Rios, as well as D-Backs OF Gerrardo Parra and their closet full of shortstops, but I have no sense of whether they’re affordable or truly available. Also, while I’m sure White Sox SS Alexei Ramirez will get mentioned in rumors, know that the Mets interest will be overstated and I don’t think Chicago really wants to deal him, based on his price the last 12 months.

Bartolo Colon…

I expect the Mets to play his market like they did last year with Marlon Byrd. I bet they talk with a lot of teams this July, ask for way too much and – unless some team overpays, which they will not – no deal will get done. Instead, Colon keeps pitching for the Mets through early August. However, if the Mets struggle to get over .500, if they slip a bit, and if enough teams remain interested, my hunch is – like Byrd – Colon could get moved through waivers for a couple of minor leaguers.

Pitching surplus…

There is A LOT of interest in Dillon Gee, from what I’ve heard from people in scouting departments, especially if he can show he’s strong and healthy during the next few weeks. That said, I don’t see him being the guy dealt. My hunch is Alderson would prefer to hold off on dealing a pitcher, unless it’s Colon, because a better, more impactful return will almost certainly be available this winter. The same can be said about Niese and Zack Wheeler, for that matter…

Daniel Murphy…

It’ll be talked about online, and I’m sure the Dodgers, Orioles, Yankees and Blue Jays, among others, will ask about him. However, though I may be in the minority on this, I still think there’s a better chance Alderson gives him a contract extension than pulls the trigger on a trade dealing Murphy to a team for yet another young pitcher. Alderson needs to acquire a hitter, not trade one. Murphy isn’t going to bring back a better bat, at least not on his own. It makes no sense to trade him for a relief pitcher, unless it some how makes an in-house arm expendable in a deal for a power hitter – and again – like I mentioned above – that type of deal is very unlikely in July.




352 comments
helloboy
helloboy

I think you can get something useful for Colon.  Colon serves no real purpose here.  he is old, not part of the future and I can still make a second half push without him.  he would  actually have more value for someone else. 


I would try to move him for Logan Morrison in Seattle who i can use in LF and has power, even in limited AB;s this year he is hitting HR at a decent clip. He is 26 and handles lefties acceptably.  I can easily see him as a 20-25 HR guy for the Mets and he adds character. I would put him 6 behind TDA.  

shawnp6986
shawnp6986

What to expect:Aldy sits on his hands watchinh the rest of the league wheel and deal,hopes and prays the Mets can hold on to tell us this a "fun"team to watch.

A big bat to help us now in '14,not happening.

LGM-Finally baseball is back,of course it has to be those West coast late starts but I'm glad it's back and am really intreagued to see if our Mets can hit the ground running.

Last home stand was HUGE,but to me this is the real test coming up on the Wcoast.

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

Personally I can't see Sandy pulling the trigger on a deal for a Tulo type. To me SA is way too conservative in his approach and too afraid to take that kind of a risk. 

metfaninva
metfaninva

Went to the Savannah Sand Gnats v Asheville Tourists (Rockies) games this week.  Both teams approximately 30 games over .500 in SALLY league. Rockies have 2 excellent outfielders and a young first baseman who is very good prospect. Smith looks good but the Rockies need arms.  Gee, Montero and Lara for Tulo.  Rockies would do it.  We should.

Ricky
Ricky

I would 100% trade Niese, D'Arnaud & Montero for Tulowitski.  That's the SS we've been looking for since Reyes.  We have the pitching - especially with Stephen Matz rising through the system quickly to replace Niese - and Placwecki could replace D'Arnaud.  I'd pull the trigger.

lindro88
lindro88

When I read people comparing Flores to Tulo, I wonder if they don't enjoy finishing 4th with 74 wins every year.

Steven Festa
Steven Festa

My god the commenters on Metsblog are so damned ignorant

Joe Paulson
Joe Paulson

I think Colon, at some point, will get a useful return ala Byrd.  Someone like Abreu, Chris Young and maybe someone else might be traded too for something. Seems pointless to hold on to six OFs.  Eric Campbell is something of possible trade candidate too.  I don't think Mets will go on some sort of run, but things of this nature won't change the product much. A big bat is unlikely .. more waiting there, which is upsetting, but probably realistic. The current Campbell as back-up SS situation is probably not realistic for the next ten weeks either.  Flores should be coming back. More reason to deal with one of the OFs. 

John Schod
John Schod

This is all a ruse!

The Mets will move expensive players, regardless of the effect on this year's team, to further reduce their shameful payroll!

They will acquire some Brazilian future phenom that will be ready in four or five years and the saga continues....

Nick Catino
Nick Catino

Im not trading d'Arnaud or Syndergaard for anyone. You can have any other prospects but them

Kyle Ely
Kyle Ely

We talk about Tulo and Stanton but what about Cargo? He would help the team out alot and we don't need to get rid of as much like we would for Stanton and Tulo

citifield
citifield

Brandon Nimmo ,  Kevin Plawecki,  Steven matz  Gee and Dominick smith  for Giancarlo Stanton

thwacker
thwacker

I dont get it.  Stats thru today - Tulo hits .417 at Coors, .265 on road (same # of games), 14 HR at home, 7 away, 35 RBI at home, 17 on road.  OBP & OPS same difference. He's over 30,and wont be playing at Coors Field.  Is he worth a ton of $ and a lot of top prospects/pitchers?  If Flores works on his defense and hits well, I say go with him.  We have had too many bad signings!

Kevin Joseph Patrick
Kevin Joseph Patrick

I would love to see either Stanton or Tulo in a Mets uniform, but if I had to choose, I would pick Stanton. Stanton is younger & doesn't have the injury history of Tulo. He may wind up being more expensive when extension time comes around, but even at $25-$28 million per year, he is very much worth having in the middle of the lineup for the next 10 years. When it comes to trading for one of them, there is no question teams are going to want either TDA or Plawecki. If I were the Mets, I would sweeten the pot with a better pitcher & Plawecki than I would trade TDA. I am very high on him & despite his early struggles, I think he is going to be a perennial All-Star starting in 2015 going forward. I would put TDA in the untouchable category going forward. You may think I'm crazy, but talk to me a year from now, at next year's ASB when TDA is being closely compared to Buster Posey. His struggles were mental & I expect nothing but great things from him going forward.

cyrus
cyrus

hey on a unrelated side note the first half highlight video on nymets.com is pretty good and worth checking out. actually makes you kind of proud to be a mets fan. some nice funky 80's music with slap bass too. 

dooley
dooley

Anyone else think that the Tulo piece could be fabricated? He mentions actual names of players (not mentioned on any other website), and can cover his tracks by saying that there are friends in Colorado that he spoke with. For all we know, those could be members of his fantasy baseball league. Not to mention the Braun stuff this past off season. This all coming on a day off from baseball, just to get hits? I have some serious doubt

William Bonilla
William Bonilla

I love Murphy but if trading him means we can use the money to trade for and sign Stanton to a long term deal then I would trade Murph to Toronto or something and package a deal for Stanton in the offseason....there is no bigger impact player available than Stanton

benmoz
benmoz

If Alderson is smart (and he has shown that is he when it comes to trades) he Flips Colon for the best prospect he can possibly get, and hope that that prospect is enough to package with Niese/Gee and Plawecki, and that way we don't have to lose D'arnaud, who will be a bonafide star in 2 years max (and will be much better overall next year compare to this one).


For the record I trade Gee, Plawecki, Montero/Flores, and the prospect from the Colon trade (if the first 4 don't get it done alone) for Tulowitzki. 


with the exception of Gee, who is easily replaceable because of our depth, none of those guys are going to be major contributors to our club over the next 2 years. 


If they want Syndergaard (which I am open to) it would basically have to be him and one other prospect. or maybe you just through in the one year of Colon  with him.



Tarheel11
Tarheel11

All this talk about Tulowitzki and Kemp. Forgetting the players for a minute, you guys really think the Cheapons are going to take on over a 100M for either of these guys? 

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

You couldn't get a bag of balls for CY. 200 hitter making $7.25 million. Why trade Soup? MLB Minimum salary that can play many positions and can pinch hit.

METS HAPPEN
METS HAPPEN

@John Schod So you are suggesting we trade for Yan Gomes, The first Brazilian-Born MLB player ? 
Brazilians play futbol.

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

Everyone has a price. If you were offered enough you trade them. Especially if Plawecki pans out big time and Thor is excess pitching.

lindro88
lindro88

Love Cargo, but he's not Tulo or Stanton. Tulo would be the ultimate prize, because not only can he mash, but he plays gold glove SS.

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

Too much to give up for a guy going free agent within 2 years.

Kevin Joseph Patrick
Kevin Joseph Patrick

Take out Gee & Smith & add Syndergaard & you have a deal. We need to stop overvaluing Gee. He is a 90 pitch/game player & a team trading a superstar is going to want something more than that in terms of upside. Gee is a solid 5th starter on a team with a very good rotation; I'd keep him.

mustang66
mustang66

finally someone else gets it

lindro88
lindro88

Please don't compare Flores to Tulo. It's ludicrous. Tulo is a great glove and he'll hit anywhere. Of course these guys are going to hit more in Colorado.

Joe Paulson
Joe Paulson

@thwacker team needs to get a star ... Flores isn't it  ... Tulo might not be the guy, but be nice to get someone

Kevin Joseph Patrick
Kevin Joseph Patrick

I still think you need to add Syndergaard. Syndergaard, Nimmo, Matz/Gee, Plawecki.

William Bonilla
William Bonilla

True plus I don't think Colorado n would want d'Arnaud....don't they have a promising catching prospect of their own?

shawnp6986
shawnp6986

I agree,man.-Those Stanton,Tulo type guys are the only ones I'd trade Murph for,other than that,forget it.

cyrus
cyrus

@William Bonilla if there is a way for the mets to get stanton i'm all for it. stanton would be a real game changer.

Kevin Joseph Patrick
Kevin Joseph Patrick

There is no way that gets it done for Tulo. I agree with keeping d'Arnaud, but to do that you need to sweeten the pot with pitching prospects. Teams don't want the players we are willing to deal for the superstars. They want the players we aren't willing to deal. First off, Colon will only bring back a mid level prospect, unless the mets are willing to eat a large portion of his 2015 salary (which they won't). To land Tulo, you are talking about Syndergaard, Matz, Plawecki, and Nimmo. Is that worth it for a guy who has a long injury history? Not in my opinion. On the other hand, I would send that package to Miami for Stanton in a second.

Mexpert
Mexpert

@benmoz  Which smart trade has he made/ Dickey has so far produced a 200 hitting catcher that cant catch or throw the jury is still out on Thor. Beltran trade is cancelled by The failure to trade Reyes. Wheeler is #5 at this point. Pagan trade The ummmmmmm ?

For_Sale
For_Sale

@benmoz They wouldnt take that deal.  Being a GM is not that easy.

benmoz
benmoz

@Tarheel11 If they get one of those guys it will be after Colon is traded and Young is not on the payroll anymore (in 2015). That's 17.5 million right there. So yes it is very possible.

niesesnose
niesesnose

Well if they clear Colon's salary and CY's salary (a guarantee) and Murphy's salary, yes, it's possible

John Schod
John Schod

What I mean is that some of these picks should play futbol instead!

Let's keep our talent; spend some money; and build around what we have....

lindro88
lindro88

Maybe Andre Rienzo too. Actually I think Gomes or Rienzo gave that post a like

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

You're not valuing Gee high enough. I say on a very good staff he is a solid 3rd starter. 100 pitches is more his limit not 90 and in today's game that is about par for the course. Over the last year Gee is in the top 15 pitchers in baseball. 

mustang66
mustang66

if he hits everywhere why is he hitting only 2 65 on the road and half the power numbers on the road compared to home? You want something that compares to Jason Bay go after him

Kevin Joseph Patrick
Kevin Joseph Patrick

If we could land Stanton plus an extension or Tulo at his current contract for Syndergaard, Matz, Nimmo, and Plawecki would you pull the trigger on either? I would do it for Stanton, but not Tulo. That is a huge price, along with the money we will have to spend on an extension, but I really think Stanton is a game changer & with the pitching we already have, he could anchor a championship lineup for a long time to come. The bottom line is that until we flip some of our young pitchers for proven hitters, we aren't going to catch the Nats anytime soon.

oswald
oswald

@Mexpert @benmoz You are the reason this website is terrible. I hope you are chemically castrated so you cannot pass on your stupidity to any other poor being. By the way, the compensation pick they got for Reyes turned into top prospect Kevin Plawecki.

benmoz
benmoz

@For_Sale @benmoz Yeah, cuz you were saying that during the RA Dickey and Beltran trades right?

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

@benmoz @Tarheel11 And what about Niese's increase and Grandy increases in their contracts? That's 5M right there. What about the approx. 15M in arbitration raises that Murphy, Gee, Meija, Duda, EY, Tejada?

benmoz
benmoz

@niesesnose Who's playing second base next year if Murphy gets moved? And don't say Herrera because we all know he's not going to be ready to hit for a playoff contending team by next year.

lindro88
lindro88

Doesn't matter. His ceiling isn't as high. Honestly for the Mets, Gee will be more useful in the next couple of years than Noah. If the Mets actually acquired a Stanton or Tulo, they could be right in the middle of the division race next year. The rotation is good enough as is once you add the number 1. Matt Harvey

For_Sale
For_Sale

@2ndhalffun he said 90 pitch because cerrone posted an article about Gee being good for 90 pitches.  Guy has not original thoughts.  Can we just stop the speculation already.  We are going bargain shopping thats what we do.

For_Sale
For_Sale

@benmoz @For_Sale We had to send 5 mil in the beltran deal.  You think you can convince your owner to just give someone 5 million dollars, especially Freddy Wilpon.  The haul Sandy got for Dickey was great.  Sandy has built relationships over DECADES of experience in the big leagues.  He doesnt get that trade done otherwise.  If it was so easy anyone who listens to a little sports radio could do it.  

benmoz
benmoz

@Tarheel11 @benmoz One of Niese or Gee is going in the Tulowitzki trade. 


Murphy needs to be locked up for a few years and yes it's going to be more money than he's getting paid now, but that's obvious. Offensively (and at 2B specifically) he's one of the best bargains in baseball.


Obviously the payroll is going to go up somewhat. But it won't be more than 10 million in net, because Sandy is going to maneuver it if he does make a deal for one of those guys.


The Wilpons understand that when players under arbitration perform well they get pay raises. Say what you want about them, but they aren't going to start trading away the whole team for 10-15 million in payroll, when they realize that spending that money to get someone like Tulo or Cargo or whoever, will make the team a legit playoff contender with the pitching we have, and the protection they provide in the lineup, which will benefit all the other hitters in the lineup.



That will bring significantly more fans to the ballpark which will bring more revenue.


They knew up until this season that if they signed a bunch of guys to big contracts it still wouldn't make them a legit contender, because of the lack of pitching, general holes in the lineup,etc.


But at this point they have a reason to actually believe that we are a few pieces away from being a WC team. Our record could be at least .500 at this point based on all those walk off losses, one run games that essentially could have gone either way.


comebine that with a Tulo, Harvey, Parnell back, all our young pitchers with a year more of experience. Duda and D'arnaud with full(ish, for D'arnaud) seasons under they're belt.


How is that not a playoff contender.



If Alderson has the plan to get it done, the Wilpons won't say no.



but it will likely occur in the offseason as matt pointed out, unless he overwhelms the Rockies, but that would require Syndergaard, D'arnaud, Neise/Gee and more, which i'm not comfortable with. nor should anyone be, because that's a gross overpay




Ed Yano
Ed Yano

I think it's more likely that clearing Young, Colon and trading Murphy gets you Castro and $ to make a run at Tomas.

Kevin Joseph Patrick
Kevin Joseph Patrick

What about Matt Reynolds? He's playing SS at Las Vegas, but he's a middle infielder. He could easily transition to 2B & he projects to be similar to Murphy with more power & better fielding.

Kevin Joseph Patrick
Kevin Joseph Patrick

I don't think the Mets are a playoff contending team next year, so Herrera could be ready by 2016. The Mets will contend for real when they flip their young pitching for at least 2 very good, cornerstone hitters, and a guy like Conforto comes up & helps the team from a homegrown standpoint. They may play more meaningful games later into next year, but in no way are they contending for a title next year. We are light years behind the Nats right now & it is going to take some serious maneuvering to get us on par or ahead of them. Don't worry about 2B next year if trading Murphy brings in a piece to land a cornerstone hitter.

Born2Fish74
Born2Fish74

@benmoz @niesesnose He's hitting .326 so it's not like he has no stick, If they get a big bat for the outfield they can carry a lighter hitting 2nd baseman who will play better D and therefore help the pitching

Kevin Joseph Patrick
Kevin Joseph Patrick

I've been talking about Gee & his 90 pitch limit since last year. Cerrone has zero impact on my thought process. Anyone with a pair of eyeballs & who can count past 75 knows Gee tires between 80-90 pitches.

Kevin Joseph Patrick
Kevin Joseph Patrick

You're overvaluing your players, just like many Mets fans do. Duda is a nice player, but he's not a key player on a championship team. Harvey is great, but you don't know how he is going to be post-TJ. Assuming he will revert to old form is assuming A LOT. Parnell is a middle of the road closer, nothing great. I expect d'Arnaud to be a very good player, a perennial All-Star, but without 2 more big bats this team isn't contending for anything except for 3rd place in the NL East.

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

@benmoz @Tarheel11 And how do you know they will increase payroll? Forget what they have said. Look at every single one of their actions. They have dictated at best an even payroll to this year or even a decrease. What have they done to show you they will increase payroll? 

Maybe you're right, but nothing they have done shows me they will increase payroll other than me wanting them to.

Tarheel11
Tarheel11

@benmoz @Tarheel11 If Colorado moves Tulo it will be to rebuild and get prospects. Why would they take on a Niese or a Gee? Why should they take on more money? Or in Gee's case only get two years of service? 

Born2Fish74
Born2Fish74

@Ed Yano I think this is the best of all options talked about ( vs Kemp, Tulo and Staton)  plus trading Colon and Murphy gets you trade chips

benmoz
benmoz

@Born2Fish74 @benmoz @niesesnose .326 in Double A dude. you should know by now, that even if he is an amazing hitter, pitchers will adjust faster than he will in 2015 if he's even up by then. It will take until at least 2016 for him to hit anywhere near his potential at the big league level.


If you really want a light hitting 2B make it Tejada (I know no one will like that lol) or Flores if you don't have to trade him.



Born2Fish74
Born2Fish74

@Tarheel11 @benmoz Agree with Tarheel here about the payroll. IMO benomoz is overrating Murphy, who yes hits for average but doesnt have true power, has below avg glove is terrible on the bases.  Trading Murphy along with Colon and CY (expiring) free's up $ for a big bat 

Sean Matrai
Sean Matrai

@Tarheel11 @benmoz They have some nice prospects already  including Jon Gray(next strasburg +++ fastball),and eddie butler(nice #2 ceiling)



I think they would be looking more on the lines of position prospects which the Mets aren't rich in ,but are getting better in.

Syndergaard is definitley a headliner to any team looking for top pitching,but I don't think the Rockies neccesarily are.



Ed Yano
Ed Yano

@born 2 fish74 The big problem with it is signing Tomas,that's a big If,and if you move Murphy and settle for prospects and don't land Tomas you have taken a step back.But that is what Sandy gets the big bucks for lol.

Born2Fish74
Born2Fish74

@benmoz @Born2Fish74 @niesesnose Again, with a big OF bat they can carry a lighter hitting 2nd baseman with a better glove. Yes, I know Herrera wont be at his full potential but it's not like Murphy is Cano, he's a glorified singles hitter with little speed, below average glove and no instincts on the bases

Born2Fish74
Born2Fish74

@Ed Yano Agreed it's a chance and not a sure thing with Thomas but IMO i would package Murphy to make sure I get near MLB ready prospects. Hopefully Sandy earns those big bucks lol