Great expectations or Grand expectations

Matthew Cerrone, Lead Writer

The Mets seem to have reasonable expectations for Curtis Granderson in 2014, which may not be the case among some fans and media, who see him as  the 40-HR guy that played for the Yankees.

Yesterday, Granderson pulled two home runs to right field against the Astros, after which Terry Collins told reporters: “I hope to see about 25 more of those when the bell rings.”

DSC_0187_SnapseedThe natural, comedic reaction among online fans and media was to ask: “25? Why not 40?”

However, in listening to Mets people talk, they expect Granderson to hit around .240 with 20 to 25 HR, 70 to 80 RBI, 15 or so doubles, some stolen bases and hopefully a few less strikeouts than he had with the Yankees. It seems light, but consider the pitching this division compared to the AL East, plus it’ll be his first year batting regularly in Citi Field.

That stat line would likely translate in to him contributing two to three wins more than a replacement-level player, which is commensurate with his name, market and what he’s being paid. Plus, if he can do that, David Wright should expect more fastballs and better production, as well, so the overall lineup should be much better than the year before… at least that’s what I think they’re hoping will happen.




43 comments
Tony BakerBaker
Tony BakerBaker

Granderson is a solid player.Mets are lucky to have quality bat behind Wright.Could be best one-two punch in baseball!

methead
methead

They are trying to keep the expectations down.

lloydbraun
lloydbraun

Why do we need to keep having the discussion about Grandy replacing Byrd's stats?  I get that Byrd had a stellar year and that if all else remains equal, Grandy essentially is a replacement for Byrd.  Fine.  But for this team to be good (i.e., BETTER than last year), Grandy needs to do what Grandy does (which he hopefully can do on a mult-year basis, which there are completely valid concerns with Byrd's ability to do), AND the other members of the team need to step up.  To be successful, this team needs to have more than just Grandy play well.  Not surprisingly, good teams tend to have multiple players play at a high level.  This lineup is going to live and die with the production we get from Chris Young and Ike.  If either or both of them hits .220 with less than 20HRs and Ks 150 times, then this team just isn't going to be successful.

Bottom line.  We shouldn't be looking to Grandy as the savior.  He should provide some stability year over year, but we need the others to step up, otherwise it'll be the same ole' 75 win team.

Robby Johnson
Robby Johnson

I don't mind sabermetrics.  I still don't understand some of the statistical and analytical measurements these statisticians have created, but I can the positives.

But the last part of this post gets me - the part where Cerrone talks about how this projected stat line factors into WAR.  That's fine, there's nothing wrong with projecting stats.

But the more I watch clips of Granderson and hear him speak down in Florida, the more I'm jacked up he's apart of this team.  They asked him about the 2 bombs yesterday and he humbly responded that he had some good luck.  He comes across as a likable dude that cares about his teammates, the city he plays for, and has already tried to connect with us - the fans.

I'm not declaring it a full-blown man crush, but leadership from a guy whose actually been on winning teams can go a long way.  And not only that - I get the sense that this guy is hungry to prove people wrong.  The guy smashed around 80 bombs for the Yanks his last 2 healthy years, and was then essentially told he wasn't good enough due in large part to a few freak injuries.  I love guys who play with a chip on their shoulder.  Let that mindset spread Grandy.  You can't measure that with any statistic.

lindro88
lindro88

Is this years theme going to be attaching an exact amount of wins each player should be responsible for?  We get it, Matt has discovered WAR.  

jlga
jlga

He's a lifetime .261 hitter who batted above .280 only once. When he was with Detroit and not in a lefty friendly park he was a 65 to 70 RBI hitter. The only year in the past 8 where he didn't strikeout over 100 times was last year when he was hurt (but he still struck out 69 times in 214 at bats).

Why does anyone here think this guy is a solid hitter, let alone a #4 hitter?

cpamerica5
cpamerica5

Everybody calm down, it's just a statement by the manager. Yikes, some Mets fans take everything to seriously. Its smart to say a lower number than a very high number. It lets Curtis relax and just focus on doing his best as opposed to trying to hit 40 HR's, if thats what Terry said.

Calm down and enjoy. We haven't had a legitimate GM like Sandy in forever. I'm still blown away by people who don't recognize how Sandy has completely changed the future of this club. We're starting to do what clubs like the Cards do and people still complain. Beleive me I have been frustrated before with the Mets, but I hope Sandy stays for a long time. I recognize and appreciate his ability to negotiate trades,any schlep can throw money at a free agent but to retool with Wheeler Syndergaard and D'Arnaud via trade, simply awesome. I'm actually enjoying the ride

Also this is the first time in forever that I look forward to watching all the second string OF's in spring training games. I enjoy watching Puello, Nimmo and den Dekker and seeing them swing the bat.

Bob Burket
Bob Burket

He should have 25-30 doubles in  a season, not 15. Come on Matt. Grandy won't be the problem unless he is hurt. Others like Ike, Tejada, Duda and Travis D need to step it up. Otherwise Grandy and Byrd are a wash.

Mickey Jennifer Wind
Mickey Jennifer Wind

the hr avg and rbi totals are low. sounds like c young. doubles are a typo and mean sb. no way he hits less than 30 hr with 100 or so rbi if healthy all year. especially hittin 4 in the order.

Lou D'Anna
Lou D'Anna

15 2bs is a little light don't ya think, maybe he meant 25

crafalko17
crafalko17

I'd be insulted by this if I was Granderson. Expecting him to perform well below his career average.

Brian Webster
Brian Webster

How on earth do the Mets think they can win 90 games if they expect Grandy to hit .240, 20 HR, 15 2B & 70 RBI as their cleanup hitter?

metfan
metfan

How does that make our lineup noticeably better if Byrd put up .290/24/88 last year.  Granderson will add some speed to the mix, and his defense will be better than Byrd, but if he reaches those totals he will only be replacing Byrd.

kh17
kh17

Marlon Byrd 2013: .291 AVG .336 OBP 24 HR, 88 RBI, 35 2Bs

Jimmy Passadino
Jimmy Passadino

I would be amazed if he strikes out less than 150 times. Heould bat 5th, the Mets have no legitimate 4, so by default he will be put there and kill innings with his strikeouts

lausenberg
lausenberg

I would be happy if he hit .240 - .250 / 25 HR / 90 - 100 RBI / 25 2Bs / 10 3Bs / 15 SBs

Ricardo Ronda
Ricardo Ronda

Curtis is batting 4th, 4 hitters drive in runs, forget all teh talk, drive in runs, that's his job - need 100+, especially considering he has 3 solid hitters in front of him

Mike Dell Italia
Mike Dell Italia

15 or so doubles? tejeda will hit more then 15.  id say ab 30 doubles and 10+ triples

Robby Johnson
Robby Johnson

@lindro88  The best and worst thing to happen to baseball at the same time.  I'm glad it's given people a better idea of how to judge performance - great for baseball.  But Christ, it's like WAR overload at this point across the country.  Literally just shoving it down our throats.

I had to stop following Brian Kenny on twitter because of how annoying he gets with some obscure analytic measurement some statistician at Northwestern came up with.  Tell me more about how you want to give Bill James a Cleveland Steamer, Brian.

metstastic
metstastic

@jlga I think everyone thinks he is a solid power hitter (hoping for 25+ HR at Citi). I think we can all agree there are many holes in his swing with many Ks and low average. If he can continue to hit for power and if we can get men on base in front of him.. I think 90-100 RBIs is attainable.

Metsnow
Metsnow

@jlga who else is your #4 hitter...Duda? Davis? I think we have run out of options!!!

Starz31
Starz31

@jlga  Well, .260 batting average with 25-30 HRs and 80 RBIs is a decent hitter. The RBIs would go up tho if he's batting cleanup and not in the top or bottom of the order like with the Yanks. 

Also, he's clearly our 2nd or 3rd best hitter on the team. 

dabo
dabo

@crafalko17  I don't think the Mets have any idea what Granderson will do because they have been looking at Ike and Duda in the 4 or 5 hole for the last years.  Expecting better numbers than that for Granderson.  

BringBackDaveTelghe
BringBackDaveTelghe

That's not how evaluating a team works. Yes, Byrd had a flukishly good 3 months here. Grandy may give 80% of that but where else are you getting more, or less production?

Starz31
Starz31

@metfan  Byrd had a great year with the Mets, hitting .285 with 21 HRs and 71 RBIs in 117 games. Granderson should hit for more power with less average. 

stemog
stemog

@metfan He's a winner and our outfield is much better than what we ran out there on opening day last year. You have to look at the whole picture, not just bits and pieces.

Starz31
Starz31

@kh17  .285, 21 HRs, 71 RBIs with the mets. 

dabo
dabo

@kh17  Career best year for Byrd at a time he needed to resurrect his career.  Not going to be repeated this year.


stemog
stemog

@kh17 Those are No. 5 in the order stats.

Starz31
Starz31

@Jimmy P.  That's the problem. He shouldn't be our cleanup hitter but we have no better option unless Ike Davis remembers how to hit again. 

stemog
stemog

@lausenberg I thought the 15 or so doubles Matt mentioned was quite low. Shouldn't an everyday power hitter have 25 to 30 doubles?

BringBackDaveTelghe
BringBackDaveTelghe

Please. Get on base, get hits, and get extra base hits, that's his job. The RBI will come if the guys in front of him actually get on base. (Besides David, that's a real challenge at the top).

knight65
knight65

@dabo @kh17 But those are the real numbers Granderson must approach if the Mets are to even marginally improve. It does not matter that Byrd won't duplicate them. If Granderson doesn't the team will not improve. Also Cerrone goes on that if Granderson hits 240 with 22 and 70 he'll have a 2 WAR. But he's not replacing a AAAA player. he's replacing Byrd's numbers.

metslaw
metslaw

@stemog @lausenberg Agreed.  With his speed and if the hits are not homeruns he should have 40 doubles added to 25-28 homers

stemog
stemog

@metstastic @Mike Dell ItaliaHe had 13 doubles in only 61 games last year. He should get 30 in a full season. 10 triples is possible since he'd done it three times, including when he hit 41 HRs in 2011. And 25 stolen bases.

stemog
stemog

@domtoretto @stemog It doesn't matter too bring players with a winning mentality in, particularly with a lot of young guys? Come on, you can't be serious.