Wild, wild…card? The Mets current postseason outlook

Sarah Langs, Intern & Special Contributor

The Mets are 52-56, four games below .500 and five and a half games out of the second Wild Card spot. This weekend they play the Giants, who are leading the race, in a wraparound series starting tonight at Citi Field.


Can the Mets make the playoffs in 2014?

According to Baseball Prospectus, factoring in their record, production, remaining schedule and other data, the Mets have just a 3.9 percent chance of making the post season:

Screen Shot 2014-08-01 at 10.43.07 AM

It’s worth noting these odds fluctuate, though the Mets postseason probability hasn’t been above 15 percent at any point this season.


Their track record and remaining schedule…

The Mets need to go 36-18 to reach 88 wins, which is the number typically needed to win the second wild card spot.

The Mets have games remaining against four of the five teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings, including the Giants, as well as two separate series with the Marlins and Braves. They do not have any more games left against the Pirates or Cardinals.

Overall, the Mets have 30 home games left and 24 road games. They’ve gone 27-24 at Citi Field this year, compared with 25-32 on the road. The remaining games are also predominantly against teams in the NL East, who they are 23-21 against this season.


MLB: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers


In addition to the facing the Giants, A’s, Dodgers, Nationals and Braves, all of whom have winning records, the Mets will play six teams with losing or .500 records, including the Reds, Cubs, Rockies, Astros, Phillies and Marlins.

If the season ended today, every NL playoff team would have a winning record in one-run games except the Nationals and Giants. The Mets lead the league in one-run games, during which they are just 16-21.

The Mets have a positive run differential of +14 entering Friday, and are the only team in the NL with a positive run differential to be below .500. In this category, they surpass the Marlins, who are two games closer to .500 than the Mets are, but have a -20 run differential.

If the Mets keep playing the way they’ve been playing, given their six remaining games against the Marlins, it stands to reason they could finish third in the division, ahead of Miami and Philadelphia, but behind the Braves and Nationals.


What does this mean for their wild card chances?

The numbers don’t seem to point towards a postseason berth this year. However, while the Mets are 15-10 in July, the Giants come to town having won four of their last 10 games. In other words, if the Mets are successful this weekend, it could begin to change the Wild Card conversation and some of the numbers, too.




105 comments
Jim Yager
Jim Yager

IF Sandy had gotten another bat the METS might have had a chance, but, he sat back and did NOTHING , again :{ That was the kiss of death for the team, I hope that 2016 is better?

sell
sell

PLEASE STOP

Ralph Carlson Jr.
Ralph Carlson Jr.

wild card? can this team even get to .500 at least 1 day for the rest of the year first

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

Need to go minimum 13-5 over next 18 games to have a  chance as we are playing several key teams. 

Giants 4    3-1

Phillies 3      3-1

NATS 6        4-2

Cubs 4         3-1


If this is done the % goes from 3.9 to over 50% if Atlanta and Pirates play only 3 games over 500. 

thecasuaLGM
thecasuaLGM

3.9% you say? In the words of Llyod Christmas, " So you're telling me there's a chance... YEAH!"

Michael Paulsen
Michael Paulsen

This is not a playoff team in any way, too many holes and weaknesses all around. I'd take .500.

Mark Rakentine
Mark Rakentine

3.9% playoff chances sounds about right. I wonder if that number takes into consideration TC as the manager....

hashburry
hashburry

Just too much ground to make up at this point, regardless of what happens against the Giants.  If they duplicate July, they barely break .500.


Interesting that Sarah and Maggie have quickly become the most lucid writers on this blog.  Having a fair amount of editing experience, it is refreshing to see posts that are well crafted.  I can live with a grammatical error typo here and there.  At least the cogent facts are correct!

Andrew LaForge
Andrew LaForge

I know people say wait until they hit.500, but I won't wait. I can hope on hope they make a run at it. Besides whats the difference if you can get the wildcard a couple of games over .500 or 15 games over .500. It is not like the rest of the NL has been tearing it up as well.

Sal
Sal

Sarah is already the best writer on this blog.  Well done.

cyjabeli
cyjabeli

Could someone please write an article "" When will the Mets get to .500."" Playoffs, geez, stop already...

Shawn Mike Rolli
Shawn Mike Rolli

mets can make playoffs long as duda hits homers and the pitching stays hot. but mets could of made team better instead they watch Yankees get better ugh

bruster
bruster

chance to make the playoffs---no chance to make the playoffs. I would be happy to just keep seeing more positive signs like there has been at times this year. I was all ready for the after the all star break-down and with that 1st series against the Padres it looked like the same old ways.But at least they"wrighted" themselves some and have looked better post break then they have for a few years. At this point it's at least something...and hopefully the start of better things ahead.

dave42
dave42

Get 3 of 4 from the Giants and I think we're right in this thing.  The opponents get tough with 13 games left against the Nats in particular.  I think we're an 85-win team this year without making a move, and much as I expected nothing to happen before yesterday, I do think they'll make a trade or two this month. 

Tom Downing
Tom Downing

This will not happen.  It's not easy to move up in the wild card standings.  Way to many moving parts...

Joe Paulson
Joe Paulson

When the team gets back to .500, come back to me.

Michael Jacoutot
Michael Jacoutot

Giants are 16-29 in their last 45 and up until Wednesday night against the Bucs, lost 6 in a row in which they only scored 6 total runs in those 6 losses. also the Bravos aren't looking great either as they have a more anemic offense than the Mets (as of late).  My point:  It's not going to take 88 wins this year.  Maybe 85. 

Brandon Lee
Brandon Lee

38-16 to get to 90 wins. The way the Mets pitching is and the way their offense is producing it's not impossible. I honestly think they will finish the rest of the season very strong, something like 33-21. They'll fall a few games out of the second Wild Card but there will be a ton of optimism going into 2015. 

rustysribs
rustysribs

It would be interesting to know what the percentage would have been at the same point in the season for the '73 Mets when they came back to win the division. Weren't they something like 10 games back on 8/1? 

matt greco
matt greco

@Ralph Carlson Jr. i love it...they've played four games under .500 for 2/3 of the season, now we expect them to play the last 1/3 at almost 20 games OVER .500.  the delusion is hilarious...


i would love to see them make a run...but talking about the WC right now is insanity.  at the very least, the pitching makes them watchable right now...which is a dramatic upgrade over the past few years.

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

@Ralph Carlson Jr.  Yes they can get to 4 games over 500 by going 13-5 over next 18. Its a long shot but doable. going 6-2 against Phils and Cubs puts us at 500. That is doable. Holding 500 against the NATS and Giants keeps us at 500. So 500 is very doable.

matt greco
matt greco

@2ndhalffun uhhh no.  the braves right now are in a playoff spot and they're just barely over 50%...even if the mets go 13-5 over their next 18, that number isn't going over 50%.


that being said, that number is completely irrelevant.

Mark Rakentine
Mark Rakentine

@mets2death ..Alot of if's...but the biggest issue is that TC will continue to play CY and Tejada 90% of the time. #freewally! I'd even settle for #freetuefel!

matt greco
matt greco

@dave42 realistically i think they need to sweep the giants to make me believe...3-1 only gains them two games.  if you're going to start making a run at this and jump over the teams ahead of you, they have to sweep the giants.  that would get them within 2 games of SF...


for the number of teams they'd have to jump over in order to make this miracle happen, they almost have to win every game they play against those teams.

Rimo Chaloney
Rimo Chaloney

@Joe Paulson  I too was going to make a comment about getting to .500.  It's hard to take a team too seriously UNTIL it does reach .500 and the Mets have struggled to get there.  They get close and then fall back.


At this point, I'd be very happy with a Mets team that does get over .500 and stays there until the end of the season.

Mexpert
Mexpert

@rustysribs That team had a guy with almost 3000 hits in RF with a gun. A combination of speed and power in left same at first a 200 hit man at second the best defensive catcher a clutch 3rd baseman GG ss and Seaver Matlack Koosman Stone. Also a manager that didnt f up!!!

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

@matt greco @Ralph Carlson Jr.  What they did earlier in the season does not forecast to how they have to play the rest of the season. I don't expect .667 baseball the rest of the way. But the way they are playing now is reasonable to expect 3 of 4 from Phillies and CUBs and 500 against NATS and GIANTS to get to 500. So 500 is very doable. 

Ed Renner
Ed Renner

@matt greco @Ralph Carlson Jr. Hey Matt. Couldn't agree more. Wild card!!!! 36 and 18!!! This is a bad team that should have dropped Chris Young and supported Kirk. But beside that, this is a bad team with a bad GM and a stupid manager. Play the same guys for a while...geez,

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

I'm not equating the 50% to the stats projected. What I'm getting at is if they do 13-5 that means they are playing great baseball and therefore in my opinion it gives them better than a 50% chance playing in that manner. The stats don't take into consideration of how the team is currently playing. 

matt greco
matt greco

@Michael Suriel @Michael Paulsen i'm not ready to anoint duda as the answer at 1B yet...very promising, and i definitely like this duda more than the old duda, but it's still a very small sample size.


oh, plus the minor detail that in order for our lousy broke a s s owners to be able to afford upgrading SS and LF you probably have to trade murphy, which creates another hole.

Brandon Lee
Brandon Lee

@citifield my guess before the year started was .500 this year, playoffs next year, World Series in 2016. 

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

@Ed Renner @matt greco @Ralph Carlson Jr.  At this time the team is no longer BAD. It is average or maybe even slightly above average. The GM is not BAD either. He is confined by $$$$$$$$$$$$. Playing CY was done to try to get him going to dump him. Did not happen. Better to take a shot for 1 year and miss than 3 years $60 million Jason Bay.  No GM is going to nail every trade. TDA and THOR for Dickey was tremendous trade and getting Vic Black for players leaving and Wheeler for Beltran are all Sandy moves. Conforto is LF that was number 1 hitter prospect by many Analysts. Can't fault that pick. Sandy has done good job with very limited budget. 

matt greco
matt greco

@2ndhalffun agreed, which is why like i said that number is completely irrelevant.


i'll be in SD tonight and tomorrow, screaming like hell for the padres to beat the braves.  if they are going to make a run at this, they need all the help they can get...at least my padres tickets can be put to good use lol

birtelcom
birtelcom

You can look this up at coolstandings.com.  That site shows the Mets as having, on August 1, 1973,  a less than 1% chance of winning the 1973 NL East. To be specific, a 0.7% chance

matt greco
matt greco

@2ndhalffun @Ed Renner @matt greco @Ralph Carlson Jr. i don't fault sandy at all, i fault the owners.  always have.  this could have been a playoff team this year if they would have been willing to spend money last winter to get another bat to go along with granderson.


the fact that the manager is a bumbling moron doesn't help, either...

blueorange
blueorange

@citifield. What about Hanley Ramirez in the off season?

Mark Rakentine
Mark Rakentine

@citifield @Brandon Lee Harvey will be back but will he be Harvey? It's been almost 3 seasons and Strasburg has been good, but he's not the same as before his TJ.

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

@matt greco The owners financial issues is what it is. I'm sure they didn't want to see Real Estate industry take a whack after 2008. I'm sure they didn't need Madoff in their lives either. You can't be mad at them for not spending IF they don't have the money to spend. Matt when they had the money they led the league in payroll at 130 million. They have shown that they were willing to spend WHEN they had the money. There is no doubt that they will be better next year then they NEED to spend MONEY  

matt greco
matt greco

@2ndhalffun @matt greco excuse me, but i can very well be mad at them for not having the money to spend.  they're owners of a major league baseball franchise in the largest market and largest city in the country...if they can't afford to run the team as such, they should sell it to someone who can.  period.  end of story.

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

@matt greco @2ndhalffun Yes you can be mad but you can't do much about it as they make more than enough with SNY and MLB TV Deal to be profitable with less than 1 million fans showing up per year with a $80 million payroll.

Yes it is frustrating. You can't force them to sell. 

The key will be to see if they increase payroll as attendance increases. Most people believe they will continue to get better and attendance will increase so will they put the money back in? I think they will go into the $100-$110 range next year. 

They can be competitive at $100-$110 BUT when those pitchers come due for $$$$ will they keep them?