Sarah Langs, Intern & Special Contributor
The Mets are 52-56, four games below .500 and five and a half games out of the second Wild Card spot. This weekend they play the Giants, who are leading the race, in a wraparound series starting tonight at Citi Field.
Can the Mets make the playoffs in 2014?
According to Baseball Prospectus, factoring in their record, production, remaining schedule and other data, the Mets have just a 3.9 percent chance of making the post season:
It’s worth noting these odds fluctuate, though the Mets postseason probability hasn’t been above 15 percent at any point this season.
Their track record and remaining schedule…
The Mets need to go 36-18 to reach 88 wins, which is the number typically needed to win the second wild card spot.
The Mets have games remaining against four of the five teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings, including the Giants, as well as two separate series with the Marlins and Braves. They do not have any more games left against the Pirates or Cardinals.
Overall, the Mets have 30 home games left and 24 road games. They’ve gone 27-24 at Citi Field this year, compared with 25-32 on the road. The remaining games are also predominantly against teams in the NL East, who they are 23-21 against this season.
In addition to the facing the Giants, A’s, Dodgers, Nationals and Braves, all of whom have winning records, the Mets will play six teams with losing or .500 records, including the Reds, Cubs, Rockies, Astros, Phillies and Marlins.
If the season ended today, every NL playoff team would have a winning record in one-run games except the Nationals and Giants. The Mets lead the league in one-run games, during which they are just 16-21.
The Mets have a positive run differential of +14 entering Friday, and are the only team in the NL with a positive run differential to be below .500. In this category, they surpass the Marlins, who are two games closer to .500 than the Mets are, but have a -20 run differential.
If the Mets keep playing the way they’ve been playing, given their six remaining games against the Marlins, it stands to reason they could finish third in the division, ahead of Miami and Philadelphia, but behind the Braves and Nationals.
What does this mean for their wild card chances?
The numbers don’t seem to point towards a postseason berth this year. However, while the Mets are 15-10 in July, the Giants come to town having won four of their last 10 games. In other words, if the Mets are successful this weekend, it could begin to change the Wild Card conversation and some of the numbers, too.