degrom

DeGrom has pitched well, but may be getting lucky

In four starts since being promoted from Triple-A, rookie RHP Jacob deGrom has a 2.42 ERA, 25 strikeouts in 26 innings, but has yet to win a game.

He left this past Saturday’s game with a one-run lead in the seventh inning, but suffered another no-decision.

“It definitely helps each time to do well, to help prove that I can pitch here,” he said after the game. “That helps a lot to keep having quality (starts).”

Matthew Cerrone, Lead Writer

He’s getting good results, and his 11 strikeouts on Saturday were impressive. However, he’s also getting batters to hit right at his fielders, which is something that will not last forever. It’s also worth noting he’s walking too many hitters, while already giving up four home runs. In other words, while I like the 2.24 ERA, and swing-and-miss stuff, I’m cautiously optimistic. I fear, eventually, he’s going hit a rough stretch, when some of those balls start dropping for hits.




110 comments
C Nerrie
C Nerrie

Thanks for reporting on this. I wasn't aware of his extremely low BABIP so far, and it will make it even more interesting to watch his future starts.

Some advice, if you don't mind:

1. I see that there are a couple of interesting articles on other blogs about this, which may have been the impetus for your post, which is fine - good awareness of what's out there that your readers should know about.  If that is the case, though, it might have been a good idea to say, "So-and-so brought this to my attention."    

2. You probably should have included some of the stats like BABIP and LOB%.

-- These stats would have supported the idea that luck has contributed to his success so far.

-- Including them would have prevented people from getting on your case for NOT including them.

-- Including them would have prevented people from getting on your case because they are not aware of these useful stats.

Frankie Lam
Frankie Lam

Why don't you just say that the team should send him back to LV instead of staying here in NY. In the mean time, Rafael Montero should stay here to get more big league experience even when the ERA is above 5 and only given up 5 long ball in 4 starts. I kinda hate to read what Matt is writing here.

nyinchi
nyinchi

So what you're saying is he'll never win a CY Young... heh heh.


'Giovanni Jiminez
'Giovanni Jiminez

Ever consider Cerrone could be trolling us into defending and rooting harder for our team ? If so good on you Matt.

rip2006
rip2006

Usually, having little-to-no run support, while pitching 6-7 quality innings each time out isn't considered lucky.  Just my opinion.

Richard Jones
Richard Jones

I watched all of deGrom's games. There was one inning in which deGrom did have a couple of hard hit  balls that he may have gotten "lucky" on.
I actually think deGrom's numbers will hit a bump. He will have to face teams a 2nd time. I think he will remain a solid start but I don't see keeping a 2.24 ERA. I hope he proves me wrong and lowers it. I have seen enough to believe he will be at least a solid #4 starter.


nymbleaver
nymbleaver

Typical journalist that wants to be negative and then say "I told ya so" when he hits a rough patch. DeGrom is a stud and has showed nothing but extremely promising stuff. Every time he takes the mound he looks as though he belongs, which is INCREDIBLY tough for a rookie pitcher. 


Strongly dislike a post like this, attempting to predict future failure. It's actually idiotic. Get out with negative energy based from asinine assumption.

sickntired
sickntired

Btw, being 0-3 despite his ERA is not being lucky! That tells me rest of team stinks!!

sickntired
sickntired

I totally disagree. I will say that Jacob will only get better as he learns how to go deeper in games and get through the batting order the third time around. Even Harvey had a few bumps when he first came up. I think this guy is for real...

Metsnow
Metsnow

Lucky??  He's been real good so far. I can't understand why it will take until later in the summer to be granted permission to talk to SA. Does that mean August? What are the Mets afraid / hiding? so ridiculous!!!!!!!

mike23
mike23

one of the few bright spots in regards to the mets and you have to add negativity.... mets fans/media have put up with so much negativity with this organization that they get scared when something or someone positive arrives


Are you preparing us for a trade involving Degrom or something...

stage52
stage52

I am wondering whether Cerrone missed his calling ? Don't forget the Fries with that .

Greg Baker
Greg Baker

The only thing worse then this stolen post are the comments on it. Ugh.

Kenneth Meltsner
Kenneth Meltsner

And all that being said I would still much rather watch this guy than John Lannan, Shawn Marcum, Aaron Harang and every other mediocrity that Sandy has trotted-out here the past three years. Team finally has some energy. If anything, deGrom should sue his bullpen for non-support.

lindro88
lindro88

That's quite an analysis!  A rookie pitcher might hit a rough stretch where some balls might wind up finding grass.  You mean like every pitcher in baseball?

stage52
stage52

What a BS Article.  Is that all you can find to write about.  The kid is doing fine.  Find something else to worry your little brain about!  Geesh!

Darrell Smith
Darrell Smith

He's been fantastic. His command of his pitches as well of his presence on the mound is much better then Wheeler. Only one Pitcher shows greater presence and has better stuff and that's Harvey.

nagel100
nagel100

he is pretty lucky to hit 95, have a good curve and a very good change with control.


he killed AAA while he was there and that's a hitter's league.


he has been great so far.  Actually i think we are lucky to have him.

nagel100
nagel100

mets should be very careful dealing any young arm.


no problem dealing Colon at 40 but montero?  too soon.  we have no idea if Harvey or Noah will be productive or healthy yet.  No to trading montero until that happens.

gpopper
gpopper

Cerrone, what is your problem? Give the kid a break. He's been pitching lights out so far. It's conceivable he could be 4-0 or 3-1 if he had any kind of offensive support. He may go through some rough spots, but so does every other pitcher, superstars included. Was Wacha "lucky" last year? It is possible some of these kids are actually good. I wonder what you would have said about Seaver when he first came up. Instead of speculating, watch the kid play, then make your astute comments at that time. Woulda, coulda, maybe, might and all the rest of that just doesn't fly.

Matt, are you anti-SABR?  There are stats out there that quantify if a pitcher has been lucky or not.  In this case they would tend to agree that he's been lucky, but it's a lot clearer to show a number for Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) than to say he's getting batters to hit at fielders which is incredibly subjective.

cbbruuno
cbbruuno

Just to throw a little fly in the ointment of the 'lucky' theory. The man who wrote the original article this theory is based on thought deGrom was a lefty and he had never seen him pitch.

flmetsfan
flmetsfan

Lucky?  Come on!  Lucky is when you can hit a ball with a rounded stick and drive it 400+ feet.

Matt, he's "missing bats" and lasting long into outings.  You can't say that about Syndergaard since he hasn't gotten to New York yet, you can't say that about Montero, you couldn't say that about Mejia when he was starting.

What bothers me is that the Mets can't score runs to support him, and he hasn't gotten bullpen support.  If either or both of them happened, he'd be 3-1.

By the way, does this post have anything to do with the Patrick Green article posted on calltothepen.com?

http://calltothepen.com/2014/05/31/jacob-degrom-getting-lucky/

hundley9
hundley9

so this kid has been around for only a month and Cerrone now has "fear" (which conveniently came from another blog)


alderson has been around for years and Cerrone has "confidence" in him.



'Giovanni Jiminez
'Giovanni Jiminez

Wow its gotten to the point where we are starting to thing negatively about our only positives, why do that to yourself ? Maybe he is just good. Obviously everyone will hit a rough patch but to be waiting for the hammer to drop constantly can get exhausting. We already have enough to worry about with this team. You complain about the negativity but i think you guys promote it, with rumors,payroll, the teams record in June, the Terry witchunt and such. Thats just my opinion . Cmon guys , stay true to the Orange and Blue :) LGM

cleonsvan
cleonsvan

He's 0-2 with three no decisions. That seems unlucky to me. The guy might be better than Harvey. What games are you watching?

Jesse Rivera
Jesse Rivera

He has not been lucky he just been pitching smart n effective, you don't get lucky for 7 innings. Maybe 1 or 2 but not 7, so what stat n game n person your talking about . Give credit where it's due n that's Degrom all by himself.

specialk
specialk

That's an odd comment Matt because a lot of times our eyes deceive us on issues such as this and I'd think if you really believe he's been lucky you'd have some stats to back it up.  There are stats that'll show hard hit balls % or something similar.  Having watched all of his starts I haven't gotten the impression eh's been all that lucky to be honest


@cbbruuno This is false. I did mistakenly say he was southpaw, but I stated in the comment section, I had seen him pitch two of his four outings on top of game tape. 

@cbbruuno  Yea, true. But at least that guy admitted his faults and didn't hide from the fact he made a mistake, he came right out and owned it. Even updating his thoughts in the comment section as the game was being played.......

cbbruuno
cbbruuno

 @cbbruuno Yes, but it still really speaks badly for his ability to research something before writing an extensive article about it. The fact that he admitted to his shoddy research doesn't mean his reasoning is somehow correct.

@cbbruuno  and yet people continue to go to blogs for their information......