curtis-granderson-540x372

Could Curtis Granderson be another Jason Bay?

The Mets will sign OF Curtis Granderson to a four-year, $60 million contract.

Granderson played in just 61 games last season. He hit 40 home runs in each of the previous two seasons with the Yankees.

Matthew Cerrone, Lead Writer

The Mets better be sure Granderson can return to being what he was with Detroit, where he was a better all-around hitter, “otherwise, he could end up being another Jason Bay,” an AL player development person told me yesterday.

After that, an AL scout told me he felt Granderson became pull-happy on inside pitches while with the Yankees, probably because it resulted in easy home runs down their shorter, right-field line.

“That’s not going to happen in Citi Field,” he said. “They’ll be pop outs, and then they’ll start throwing him away, away, away, and get him to swing and miss or fly out to left.”

Maggie Wiggin, Contributor

Granderson’s home runs are mostly clustered in right field. However, few of them were cheap. The overlay charts, while not a perfect tool, show the vast majority going out at Citi Field. He should certainly try to adapt to hit more line drives, because the gaps at Citi Field will give him a lot of doubles and triples, but he’s done that in the past and he’s clearly a smart and capable enough hitter to make adjustments based on his park.

Regardless, the Bay comparisons are really misplaced because a decline of that extreme magnitude is rare enough to make Bay a statistical outlier; and — by definition — outliers make for really bad predictions. The best evidence we have is Granderson himself — a hard-swinger who will strike out a lot, but who has the strength to hit the ball a far distance. Age and a change in park will inevitably keep him from being the 40+ home run hitter he used to be, but if the Mets want power he’ll give it to them.




165 comments
Kevin Brazee
Kevin Brazee

If anyone checks out baseball-reference site, look at the Granderson entry. Like any player with a few years or more they compute something called similarity scores. This allows us to compare the player's career with other like players. The player most similar to Granderson is Jason Bay. This might mean nothing but then again who knows. Let's just say regardless of this I don't think this was a wise signing. Let's hope I am wrong.

William John Dwyer
William John Dwyer

With all of his Met troubles...we as Mets fans forget Jason Bay ran into a wall with his head to try and be the player we wanted him to be and was never the same after that.


But even so...to compare Granderson to Bay at this point is moot and not reality.  Granderson is an extreme upgrade to what the Mets HAD in CF.  Which was an absolute mess last season.  Lagaras, Valdespin, Kirk...all combined don't hold a jock strap to an 80% Granderson, let alone 100%.  Now should we be expecting Yankee ballpark numbers?  No of course not.  We can expect 150 HITS, 100+RUNS, 25 DOUBLES, 15 TRIPLES, .330OB%.


If we are expecting the HR hitter we are kidding ourselves.  The Mets need to use him to CitiField's strengths, he'll be the 1 or 2 hitter in the line up...so power is irrelevant.  That being said, it is still realistic to expect 25 HR's...now just to be fair, he will strike out a TON of course.  But to just think 2013 is going to be what he is forever more (because he got injured) is just being silly and purposefully depressing.



Chris T Washington
Chris T Washington

Not even one day has passed and this filth is posted on a Mets fan site? Seriously?

Philip Kossoy
Philip Kossoy

Philip Kossoy here...WOW...I can't believe all of the nay-sawyers here!  Jason Bay was an anomaly!  He signed with the Mets and was instantly washed up after hitting 36 HR's and driving in 118 in Boston the year before.  Curtis Granderson on the other hand has been playing in NY for the last 4 years and will not be a "Deer in the Headlights" like Bay was.  Lets all be positive as our beloved team has just made a positive improvement in the team!  Go Curtis...Go Mets! 

Vin Santiago
Vin Santiago

Literally you are all incapable of optimism.  

Joe Phillips
Joe Phillips

Yes, but folks keep screaming Jason Bay, maybe there is another issue with the lack of hitting?

Michael Jankowski
Michael Jankowski

No way I am willing to bet 285 avg 30 hrs and 95-100 plus rbis for this guy.

Rich Kluender
Rich Kluender

Well he does but that has nothing to do with Granderson.

metsstrong
metsstrong

Yes, in terms of no protection, low avg, drop in HRs

Brian Schrader
Brian Schrader

Bay definitely wasn't cut out for New York but isn't it possible that getting his bell rung twice by running into walls had an effect on his production as well?  The guy was snakebit from the get-go.

crash
crash

Have to say this was the first thing that popped into my mind when I heard the terms of the contract. I don't think anyone, management or fans alike, believed Bay would tank so badly. Let's just hope Grandy's freak injuries are a thing of the past (and not an early clue to the new direction). Otherwise, that $15M is gonna haunt us. . . again.

MMIAA
MMIAA

The other issue is Granderson knows what he is getting into. Bay was a woos and couldn't handle NY

Andrew Wharton
Andrew Wharton

Bay was an anomaly. The minute you start making comparisons like that is when you run yourself into trouble. Not making moves because of what happened with Bay would be like handing in your driver's license because you once blew a tire and ran over a dog by mistake. Okay, probably a bad (and sick) analogy, but hopefully you get the point. Some of these mistakes can't be predicted or controlled at all. You just take the punches and move on.


Now, RCF will be tough for Granderson, but plenty of hitters have shown to be able to reach the RF fence and even the Pepsi Porch without trouble. Heck, just ask Chase Utley, who seems to find that corner every time he plays at Citi Field. Granderson won't hit 40 HR, but he can still hit 30 and I think you'll see a rise in batting average because of the more spacious outfield. And let's not discredit Wright hitting in front of him and getting on base 40% of the time. When David's on, Curtis will see plenty of fastballs because Wright can swipe a bag if you're not careful. The difference now is the guy hitting behind him can actually make pitchers pay for their mistakes.


If Granderson fails, so be it. Risk and reward, right? Can't predict it, but this risk was certainly worth it and it was a very necessary move to prove to everybody, myself included, the team is committed to taking the next step in this rebuilding process. It's time to put major league players on the field in Queens. 


Let's go get a shortstop who can actually hit.

suptrack
suptrack

Why would you put up something like this today. We finally have something we can feel good about and I see Bay's name appear. I guess that's why you're always posting pics and stories about Shea. Please stop living in the past. I've been a Met fan since my first game at the Polo Grounds in '63. I know we are batted and bruised, ( and I haven't attended a game at Citi since '11, only go to Met games on the road because of ownership) but please let us enjoy today. Plenty more to do and honestly I'll believe it, when I see more moves forth coming.  

dave27a
dave27a

I have no idea what possessed you to post this "story."  Really not interested in what one salty, uninformed old Yankee scout has to say about Granderson.


He didn't play 162 games a year in Yankee Stadium and has home/road splits that pretty much negate that thought...as does his experience in Detroit.


But thanks for doing your best to rain on one of the few decent days this fan base has had in awhile.

Gimo N Zana Istrefi
Gimo N Zana Istrefi

Hejdi Selma Mehmeti no chance that the Marlins trade Stanton within the division. They are not trading him at all. Can't you see that they are actually adding pieces this year. They look like they want to contend now. I would love Stanton. Why not push for Cabrera from the Indians. He is there SS. Check his stats out. He is good

MetsFan1962
MetsFan1962

Not fair to compare Granderson and Bay. Both suffered different types of injury. In Bay's case, I think those head concussions he suffered ended his career.

dave42
dave42

With Chris Young and Lagares this OF should give a whole new meaning to Generation K though

Major Pain 0303
Major Pain 0303

Listen is he perfect...no. But he is a SIGNIFICANT UPGRADE over what our outfield has had in years. They had to give that 4th year to get it done so be it. He'll be 37. It may be a down year but worth it if he helps in 14-16. The key to this is I'd rather have him for 4-60 than Choo who to me seems like a platoon guy at best 5-90. Choo has never hit for huge power numbers, isn't a top flight defender, and isn't overly fast. Ellsbury for that money can't hit home runs, and as Choi mentions yes Cano is a better player but he's also 9-10 years for 280 million dollars. I'm sorry it makes no sense for them to spend that kind of money on him. 

Sam Choi
Sam Choi

There was Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo. ALL better players.


Once again, our front office philosophy shows it follows 1 rule - SAVE MONEY.

Gimo N Zana Istrefi
Gimo N Zana Istrefi

I'm sure I speak for all METS Fans when I say this. Yes are team has had some Bad experiences with signing Free Agents. Such As , Jason Bay. Be we can not live in fear and assume that every signing is going to turn in to the next Jason Bay. To be successful you need to take risks. Sometimes they pan out and sometimes they don't. It's better they signed Curtis then give us nothing at all. That being said Let's Go Grab A SS Now.

Justin Gibides
Justin Gibides

Granderson's HR total for 2013 was only 7 due to injury, so it's better to use 2011 and 2012 Overlay Charts to see how he would have fared at Citi Field.  In 2011, 3 of his 41 HRs would have been well short of the fence at Citi Field.  In 2012, 7 of his 43 HRs would have been short.  


I know the Mets don't play all their games at home, but Citi Field has a more average right field pull than Yankee Stadium.  Taking these park-adjusted numbers (38, 36) and accounting for dropoff due to age, I could see Granderson somewhere around 30-35 HRs in the first 2 years and maybe 25 HRs in the last 2 years of the contract.

dumdeeduda
dumdeeduda

No. He's a good guy that plays hard coming from a joke of a park in the AL East . . . oh wait. And, Bay was coming off a good year. That being said, I think Granderson will be fine. Hopefully he can work on getting his swing back to where it was before he got to the Yankees.

Max Blay
Max Blay

Miller or Franklin from Seattle now please.

John Grillo
John Grillo

Plus - I believe Jason Bay was a product of those concussions & his decline was very circumstancial

JCFromCNJ
JCFromCNJ

So I'll be more optimistic in my comparison instead of Bay how about Jeremy Burnitz?


Burnitz was a pull happy guy in Milwaukee and hit 34/100/.251 came to Shea and hit 19/54/.215. The next year he started off really well 18/45/.277 in 65 games! And we traded him for Victor Diaz and 2 other schmucks.


He had a three more reasonably productive  years and retire at 37. I'd take Burnitz 33-37 over Bay's any day.

John Grillo
John Grillo

First off - did you guys just silently turn to the new comment system - The one announcing the Granderson deal had the old style - this one looks like the new one - I know you said it was coming but seems kind of weird and disorienting to change it right in the middle of a huge free agent signing discussion. While I also know know Grandy is not a perfect player and carries some risk like any signing, and Maggie's comments were fairly positive, I am disappointed to see this brought up "minutes" after the signing

rico
rico

Maybe he'll be another Joe Dimaggio?


Who knows until the lace em up and play!

Leif Granlind
Leif Granlind

Hey and you know what? Maybe Grandy's still good the fourth year... Great signing.

Ricky Tan
Ricky Tan

I'm not so sure about the Bay comparisons, but I am a little worried about the Ks. Hopefully he can keep them under control for a bit, because they don't look like they are trending in our favor.

metfan8669
metfan8669

@bcleveland Are you really that much more excited?  If Granderson hits .220 and 20 HRs he won't do much more than eat up money that could have gone elsewhere.  Duda can give you that kind of production.

Bob Giacalone
Bob Giacalone

Jason Bay was actually not an anomaly. George Foster had the same problem. HoJo, another over 30 player, suddenly lost it. This guy is 32 and already shows signs of problems. I hope I'm wrong.

metfan8669
metfan8669

@Vin Santiago That's not true.  Mets fans enter every year believing they can compete.  And we all understand the rebuilding that has gone on for the past few years.  So that I think you are far off base. -- Being critical of where the franchise spends its money is fair considering some of the poor decision that have been made over the years.  And what team do you affiliate with?

metfan8669
metfan8669

@suptrack Don't you think it's good to be realistic?  Make the management know we are not going to be bought with this kind of signing.  Without another starter and offensive player we are equal to last year.  You think Granderson will out produce what we got from Byrd last year?  And Byrd was 1/4 of the price with no long term obligation.

scottfan23
scottfan23

this story really irritated me too.  can't we have a happy minute without crappy comparisons?

MetsFan1962
MetsFan1962

Sam. . the Mets had no choice to stay away from big tickets players. The Mets have not been profitable for a few years. One could say spending on better players would have turned them into a money maker.

muskytoes
muskytoes

@Justin Gibides Wright went from 33 HRs to 10. Bay went from 36 HRs to 6. Carlos Delgado went from 38 HRs to 4 and retired. Coming into CitiField as a slugger in a Mets uniform is a trip. Beyond just the dimensions, players breakdown mentally and physically. Of course, opposing hitters are immune. 

NYMetsLander
NYMetsLander

@Justin Gibides looks like you not taking the lineups into account. He's coming from Yankee lineup with protection (Not including last year) to a Mets LOL lineup. When you have holes in your lineup you can pitch around guys. His numbers will go down, unless the Mets add another two bats.

Sam Choi
Sam Choi

@Ricky Tan Rarely does a player improve his strikeout ratios. If anything they keep following their trend - downwards.


We should have gotten Ellsbury or Choo IN ADDITION to Granderson. Unfortunately, Curtis will be our headline move for 2014. 


I won't buy a ticket until they show they're serious.

Andrew Wharton
Andrew Wharton

@MMIAA If Tejada goes back to hitting .285 and gets his OPS over .700, I will gladly eat crow. I've been a big Tejada supporter, actually. However, the reality is he posted a .519(!) OPS last season and he carried his problems onto the field. I'm not sure he's a good fit to play for Terry Collins (who I don't think should've gotten an extension), so it only makes sense to at least bring in another shortstop and let Tejada try to get his act together either at 2B or with another team.

William John Dwyer
William John Dwyer

@NYMetsLander @Justin Gibides Yes lines make a difference, but even with additions.  Grandy should not be expected to be a power hitter here.  He's a top of the lineup guy, and should be counted on to score runs.  What the Mets need now is someone else who can drive those runs in.

Justin Gibides
Justin Gibides

@NYMetsLander the other interesting thing to take into account is Wind.  On average, Granderson's 2012 home runs to Right Field got about a 4 foot boost by the winds at Yankee Stadium (26 HRs total).  Compare that to Ike Davis's 2012 HRs to RF, where they were REDUCED by over a foot on average (9 HRs total).  5 feet of difference in that stadium can take away another few home runs.


I amend my previous estimate to 28, 25, 20, 20.  Still think it's a great signing.

Justin Gibides
Justin Gibides

@metslander You're right.  The Mets will probably add at least 1 more bat to the lineup, so I would still stand behind the lower numbers i threw out there - 30, 30, 25, 25 (assuming he doesn't miss a ton of time for injury)