Bartolo Colon has been a slight bargain

According to the WAR-to-dollar scale on FanGraphs.com, the Mets are getting a $13 million-a-year season out of Bartolo Colon, who will actually earn just $9 million.


Colon Horizontal


Colon is due to make $11 million in 2015, after which he can be a free agent.


miniMCavatarMatthew Cerrone: This is what was at the heart of why Colon has yet to be traded, because I’m sure Sandy Alderson is holding him up at that higher value, while most teams also see next year’s salary, his weight, health history and age.

It reads like Colon has yet to be put on waivers. There is talk that the Tigers, Yankees, and others could have interest in trying to trade for him if he gets through. I don’t expect a team to claim him just to block him, because several reports around the time of the non-waiver trade deadline indicated Alderson might be inclined to just let Colon go for nothing in an effort to clear his next year’s salary. In either case, the above valuation speaks to why Colon may be most valuable this winter and not this August…


According to Mike Vorkunov’s math, Curtis Granderson is on pace to essentially equal his $13 million salary; while Chris Young, who was already designated for assignment, brought back just $2.8 million in return for his $7+ million deal, according to FanGraphs. Also, while David Wright is also under-delivering, Juan Lagares is having a $16 million season >> Read more at the Star-Ledger.




103 comments
thwacker
thwacker

Curtis is hitting .227!   That's worth 15 million?

Joe Toth
Joe Toth

Where the hell do you get these numbers?

metjetnet
metjetnet

Double-check the article you link to…

I believe Chris Young is stated to have brought back "negative $2.8 million." 

Ouch!

Quite the difference.

rico
rico

Mets have a lot of nice pitching prospects but they may actually need Colon next year,  here is why.


Neise…looks like he may be injured, that or the guy can never get through a season.

Gee…see Neise.

Harvey…no guarantee he will be what he was or be anything at all next year, none! ( see Hefner/ Strassburg 1st year back) 

Degrom….are his talents real, can he stay this good when the league gets used to him and how's that shoulder? Tender is the Shoulder..and thus scary


Thor/ Montero….question marks for next year


So right now our best looking pitchers for next year and today are Colon and Wheeler.


Suddenly our crowded house of 8 starters looks like it has 6 big IF's.


In that case, keeping Bartolo may be the smart choice





grillruben
grillruben

How did Chris Young "Earn" $2.8 mil? The guy hit .205.

nymetsrule
nymetsrule

The Mets and their bargains. PROFITZ

golsf
golsf

Colon has done exactly what the Mets hoped and more.  He has filled innings, and has been dominant at times.  He is leading the Mets in innings pitched and victories.  While he has been shelled on several occasions, more often, he has delivered quality starts.  Good signing by the Mets.  They should not be in a hurry to unload him as he buys them flexibility heading into 2015.

Albert E Lewis
Albert E Lewis

Whos got 31 hrs ?...try Nelson Cruz ... hear that Sandy?

Bob Primosch
Bob Primosch

The WAR-to-dolllar analysis doesn't account for the fact that the Mets gave Wright roughly a $30-40 million premium just for sticking around.  It's more about the "face of the franchise" thing than performance.  And the Mets really had no choice but to overpay -- once Reyes and Beltran were gone, they had absolutely nothing to sell to the fanbase without him. 

Kaspers Price III
Kaspers Price III

his contract was worth watching him swing that bat alone lol

flmetsfan
flmetsfan

That all it boils down to these days, math.  Why even watch games anymore?  Some statistician can just tell you who will win the game by a few calculations.

Leif Granlind
Leif Granlind

I am worried about his motivation going forward now when he reached 200 wins. Hope I am wrong.

rstpigeon
rstpigeon

If Granderson and Niese are earning their pay, I really need a raise!

theglider
theglider

Lagares worth $16 million? Glad to see someone appreciates defense above hitting.

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

@borsh13 TC is just a puppet for Sandy!!!! The playing time that CY was simply mandated by Sandy to try and get him going. I also think that Sandy is the type of guy that his handshake means something. He told CY that he was going to get X # of AB's and he tried to fulfill his promise. TC was brought in because he is a puppet whereas Wally would not deal with that. 

Sandy tried to catch lightning in a bottle in 2014 with CY like he did in  2012 and 2013 ( Hairston/Byrd). So it did not work out --no GM is perfect. It was worth a shot on a 1 year deal! 


OMAR took shots on BAY $60 million and Castillo and Ollie Perez etc. Imagine what Sandy could do with Omar's $130 million payroll back in 06.

rico
rico

@grillruben remember back when you got 200 points for just signing your name on the SAT's?


Something like that

zoddie
zoddie

@grillruben  He didn't.  Metsblog misquoted the article.  He was worth NEGATIVE $2.8m.  Click through to the article or check the fangraphs page.

mrgee
mrgee

@Bob Primosch  Nothing to sell the fanbase without Wright? What about Boyz II Men?! Huey Lewis & The News?!?!?

rico
rico

@flmetsfan Stats Stats Stats…this new generations' way of trying to explain the unexplainable.



zoddie
zoddie

@flmetsfan  No they can't.  A team that has a 58% chance to win a game is still going to lose that game 42/100 times.


"It's why they play the games."


Just look at the 2006 Mets and Cardinals.  You don't need a PhD in advanced stats to know the Mets were a better team, but in a short series, anything can happen.


I love the advanced stats because it tells us more about the players.  I love watching baseball because it is fun.  There is no disconnect.

lindro88
lindro88

Today I saw that the Tigers are now 43% likely to win the division. It's getting really carried away.

golsf
golsf

@Leif Granlind I hear you, but think your worries are unwarranted....Colon is a long time professional pitcher.  He has a workmanlike attitude and keeps a calm demeanor at all times.  In many ways, he provides a great balance to some of the younger pitchers on the staff as he has little left to prove at this point in his career.

lindro88
lindro88

Colon seems like he really enjoys taking the ball. He could get knocked around tonight, but I doubt the 200 wins will effect him

zoddie
zoddie

@Leif Granlind  The guy is a pro who clearly loves pitching.  Why would he start slacking off for the first time now that he's 40?  Besides, what's he going to do wrong, exactly?  Eat too many cheeseburgers and get fat?


Oh, wait.


Or start giggling when he strikes out on three straight pitches?


Oh, wait.

Bob Primosch
Bob Primosch

@rstpigeon  I was surprised to see that Granderson supposedly isn't underperforming his deal.  I guess the 100 point difference between his batting average and his on-base percentage plus his reliability in the field make up the difference.  At these prices Trout could be the first $50 million/year player.

joe21
joe21

@rstpigeon  if Granderson was earning his money, it would take a $169M to field a whole positional team of him. what do you think that team's record would be?

zoddie
zoddie

@rstpigeon  Hey, if you were among the best 750 people at your profession ON THE PLANET and your owners were making billions of dollars, you probably WOULD get a raise.


But we're not.  So we don't.

jsecurity
jsecurity

People on here don't just look at HR's. What do you think he will be worth? Also, did they say he was worth $16MM or having a $16MM like season? He is a pleasure to watch play baseball.

2ndhalffun
2ndhalffun

@theglider  Its the combination of .285 center fielder  and great glove. Not too many CF's produce with bat. CF is still a defensive first position. 

lindro88
lindro88

If he can hit 12-15 homers and knock in 70 runs, he'll be a great player for this team.

zoddie
zoddie

@theglider  WAR takes both into account as well as base running, positional adjustments, and park factors.

Steven M. Harries
Steven M. Harries

@mrgee Both those bands have a negative WAR. However, War has a positive WAR, but what are they good for anymore?

zoddie
zoddie

@rico @flmetsfan  How is it unexplainable?  I learned how to add, multiply, and divide in elementary school.

zoddie
zoddie

@joe21 @rstpigeon  81-81.  He's been about average this year.


But that shows you why you can't build your team solely through free agency anymore.  You need young, cheap guys.

lindro88
lindro88

HR's and RBI's may not be as exciting as some of the advanced metrics terms, but they still represent production.

lindro88
lindro88

12 and 70 isn't asking for MVP numbers. Those numbers seem reasonable.

Steven M. Harries
Steven M. Harries

@zoddie B-R tends to weigh defense less than offense.


What stat can explain Ike Davis having to slot over toward 2nd for Daniel Murphy's benefit? (VF1B/NM2B/shiftoid)

theglider
theglider

I'm sure. But people on here look only at home runs, it seems. Defense, for most, is an afterthought.

rico
rico

@alphaq @rico @grillruben I hope you got my point Mr Alpha.  We get it you're  Alpha!


You scored 2370 on a text that you can only score1600 on.  


I think you missed my analogy

zoddie
zoddie

@borsh13  Seriously.  They seem to be a lot quieter about not signing Choo for $150m or Drew for $40m like a lot of people here wanted.

rico
rico

@zoddie @rico @flmetsfan Mark Twain used to say "There's liars, Damn Liars and Statisticians."


Stat-men can make the numbers do anything they want for them.  See Wallstreet every Day! The stock market his higher than ever in history, the economy is the strongest in the world but 99% of the citizens in this country are struggling to pay for food, education, housing, 3 most basic things.  You'd think with all that money here we'd all be living on easy-street, but that is not correct, despite the stats.


Hey the stamen will tell you that Derek Jeter is an average to below average shortstop, where we (even mets fans) believe our own eyes that he's one of the best ball players in the history of the game, despite what the stats-men say.


There is a place for stats but I think they are at least 75% overrated as a useful tool for assessing all things sports.  



Steven M. Harries
Steven M. Harries

@zoddie How do you account for Angel Pagan's IBS (UQS) not being understood by Terry Collins (RTD), but being understood by Bruce Bochy (NCG), who used him properly (WSR)? 

zoddie
zoddie

@rico @zoddie @flmetsfan  You just unwittingly made an argument FOR the use of stats.


Those with the information prosper and those without do not -especially when it comes to the stock market.  I just went to a client today for work that lived on the 20th floor overlooking Central Park.  He is an investment banker.  Through the use of statistics, algorithms, and really fast information he is RICH.  I am not, because I don't understand those statistics.


As for Derek Jeter, I have no idea where you are getting your information from.  NO ONE (statheads, meatheads, players, coaches, my mom) thinks Jeter is below average.  WAR, JAWS, OBP, whatever stat you profess to hate all say he is an all-time great.


What is isn't great at is DEFENSE.  He has, and has always had poor range.  Advanced stats and those with eyes can see that.  But his offense is so good and he stayed so healthy and productive for so long that he is a top 5 SS of all time despite his below average defense.


Try and find a single article on the internet that says Jeter is a below average player based on advanced stats.

flmetsfan
flmetsfan

@rico @zoddie @flmetsfan It wasn't but a few years ago that some betting expert would come on a NFL pregame show and tell the fans that "...the Vikings are 39% against the point spread while playing on artificial turf on the West coast as an underdog at night the week after a road game."  And people thought that was supposed to mean something.

So now a guy with a few computer algorithms can tell a team whether they paid too much for a player.  What will they think of next?

zoddie
zoddie

@Steven M. Harries @zoddie  Easy.  Pagan had a crap year in 2011.  The Mets (and Mets fans) didn't like his attitude.  He was entering his 30s.  I didn't like the trade because it was a classic "sell low" trade, but it is clear the organization had enough of him.

rico
rico

what's a pitchbook? (other than 300 dramatically correct pages:)

zoddie
zoddie

@flmetsfan  You aren't even railing against advanced stats at this point.  You are complaining about division and winning percentage.  If a team is 2-10 against the spread, that is a 16.66% winning percentage.  If that kind of math scares you, I'd hate to go out to dinner with you and watch you figure out a tip.

rico
rico

@alphaq I like your humility Alpha.  So basically a pitch book is document of sales-points and rationalizations used in the playing of real MONEYBALL?