Matthew Cerrone, MetsBlog.com:

Here is what’s going on with each side, based on what I’m hearing from people around the team and MLB:

Dickey: He initially wanted close to $40 million guaranteed over the next four years, but the Mets obviously disagree. I’ve heard he’s desperate to get a deal done before Opening Day. He knows he will be seen as a fluke if he struggles in 2013 or gets injured, at which point he will have missed his opportunity at a big pay day.

These days I hear the Mets and Dickey more or less see eye to eye on guaranteeing two years (2014 and 2015). They disagree on the money, but Dickey has little leverage (and the Mets know it), so it seems there is no rush (see below) to move quick. As I said yesterday, I believe the Mets are willing to give a third-year option, and no more than $10 million a year, which could bring the deal’s overall value to $35 million for a possible four years << click to tweet this.

The Mets: They know Dickey is unique and very good. They’d like to keep him for the future, so they don’t want him getting to free agency one year from now. However, (because of age, over exposure, etc.) they have doubts he can be as good next season as he was in 2012; and they’re very skeptical he can be as good in 2014 and 2015 as he was in 2012. They don’t want to be paying him $13 million a year or more if he falls apart, a) because it’s money that could be better spent elsewhere, and b) it makes trading him nearly impossible (be it now, next summer or the years after that).

The way I understand it, the Mets know Dickey (and Jon Niese) are also their best shot at acquiring two, young, top hitting prospects, because of the demand for starting pitching. So, the Mets have not yet presented Dickey with a contract to sign, because they’re waiting for him to lower his contract demands, while hoping the trade market ponies up two top hitting prospects to get him. I think they’ll pull the trigger on whichever happens first.

Teams interested in trading for Dickey: They have the same short-term confidence, but long-term concerns about Dickey that the Mets do, so they’re reluctant to trade for him if he’s under contract for three full years. At the same time, they’re only willing to give so much for a pitcher likely to test the free agent market one year from now. Also, at least for now, there are other options available in trade or on the free agent market.

Matthew Cerrone, MetsBlog.com:

“There has been modest progress since the end of the winter meetings in talks between the Mets and R.A. Dickey’s agent about a contract extension,” according to people familiar with that process, Andy Martino reports in the Daily News.

The way I understand it, from people around the team, the Mets and Dickey more or less see eye to eye on guaranteeing two years (2014 and 2015). I believe the Mets are willing to give a third-year option, which could bring the deal’s overall value to $35 million.

Dickey initially wanted close to $40 million over the next four years, guaranteed; but he’s also said to desperately want a deal done before Opening Day. He knows he again be seen as a fluke if he struggles in 2013 or gets injured, and then he’ll likely miss his opportunity at a big pay day. So, I think he’ll take what he can get now… so long as he thinks it’s close to fair.

At the same time, for the Mets, this isn’t just about Dickey, money, and whether they think he’ll be good enough the next few years.

Instead, the debate is really about how to be a better overall baseball team.

If you think the Mets need more young hitters (because they have so few today), and Dickey (or Jon Niese) can help deliver those hitters in trade, then you make the trade. If you think Dickey or Niese will be more valuable on the mound during the next three to six years compared to the talent coming back in a proposed trade, you don’t make the deal, you keep your pitching in tact, and you turn to the weaker free agent market for a short-term bat.

For instance, the Mets are looking for top hitting prospects Mike Olt, 25, and Leonys Martin, 24, from the Rangers, according to John Harper of the Daily News.

However, the Rangers have not countered that proposal, Ken Davidoff says in a report for the New York Post.

To be more specific, from what I can gather as of yesterday, the Mets and Rangers (and Mets and Blue Jays) have only had general discussions about talent; with neither team putting a deal on Sandy Alderson’s desk.

The Rangers are still working to acquire OF Justin Upton from the D-Backs, though they reportedly need a fourth team involved to help deliver Indians SS Asdrubal Cabrera to Arizona in the deal. At the same time, free-agent Anibal Sanchez is still available and an option, as is OF Josh Hamilton. The point is, Texas has options and will likely work through them before trading their best young talent for a 38-year-old knuckleball pitcher with a one-year deal. Meanwhile, the Jays prefer Niese, and are asking for additional pitching prospects from the Mets in a deal for their young catcher and outfielders.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if a logical, impact trade doesn’t present itself, Alderson is more than willing to give Dickey a two-year extension, keep Niese and move forward in just the free agent market.

“We’re not bluffing when we say we’ll keep him,” one Mets insider told Martino of Dickey. “We need the right package.”

Matthew Cerrone, MetsBlog.com:

I still see the Blue Jays and Rangers as most likely to step up efforts to acquire Dickey, but time will tell…

In regards to the Royals, I’ve heard they have shown interest in Dickey, but they prefer Jon Niese because they have no interest in trading a top young hitter (like Myers) for a rental player. This is why they’re also rumored to be in trade talks with the Rays for James Shields and the Red Sox for John Lester. In a perfect world, I’m sure the Royals would prefer  to keep Myers and sign a free agent, like Anibal Sanchez. However, if that doesn’t happen, I’m sure they’ll turn back to the trade market, since reports indicate they’re desperate to acquire a young, established starting pitcher.

Matthew Cerrone, MetsBlog.com:

Last week, I was told by other team’s insiders that, to get the type of young hitter Sandy Alderson is looking for, he will need to trade Jon Niese not R.A. Dickey.

This week, Alderson told reporters that he did not have many conversations with teams in Nashville about Niese. This may or may not be true, but it doesn’t mean he didn’t talk to teams about Niese last week or the week before.

I say this because the more I read between the lines, and listen to people talk, I think Alderson may prefer to keep Dickey with a reasonable two-year contract extension. They know Dickey desperately wants a new contract, he wants to stay in New York, and he doesn’t want to take the risk of pitching on a one-year deal. However, before making that move, Alderson’s surrogates (J.P. Ricciardi, Paul DePodesta and John Ricco) met with teams this week to better understand what Dickey can deliver in trade. I think they’ve know what Niese is worth and who is interested, and now (after a few days of meetings) they clearly know Dickey’s value and suitors as well.

The best way to motivate Dickey to lower his demands might be to keep saying in media that it’s possible he could pitch with no new contract at all, or get traded, neither of which he wants. I’m sure other teams and sources are picking up on all of this, leading to so many back-and-forth, conflicting reports about who wants what, who is available and who might get traded.

For instance, I’ve heard the Dodgers, Brewers and Rangers like Dickey, but aren’t that interested in Niese. The Rockies and Nationals are said to like Niese, but aren’t very interested in Dickey. The Blue Jays and Royals are interested in both. And, while at least two teams have already made serious offers for one of the two, one team is waiting on other factors and the other asked the Mets to part with a top prospect of their own. In other words, it’s crazy out there…

Earlier this week, I speculated that perhaps Alderson’s goal is to lock up Dickey and move Niese for a hitter, after which the Mets could sign a free-agent to finally have a complete outfield, and – though they’d have an open spot in the rotation – Alderson would still have a Cy Young Award winner to anchor his staff.

This all goes to hell if Dickey continues to demand $40 million the next three years, because I don’t think Alderson will do that – and so, at that point, if a team is willing to overpay for him, Dickey could get traded for the bat not Niese – I think that’s a lot of what this week was all about. However, this is all gets thrown off track again if the Rangers sign Zack Greinke, who is likely to choose a new team within 48 hours. And this all gets held up by Tampa Bay, because they can offer James Shields to any team interested in Niese. And so, there is a very good chance both Dickey and Niese stay put, simply because of the way the market shifts, despite early interest from other teams.

Basically, it’s complicated and not clear cut. It all depends on moving parts, many of which the Mets do not control. I think this is why Jeff Wilpon, Alderson and Terry Collins keep identifying the obvious options (sign, trade or punt) in public interviews, all while sounding very indecisive about which the they want to go. Because, I don’t think they know. I think Alderson has a simple goal, which is to leverage his best assets for a young bat, but the best way to do that has yet to be determined… and nothing ever goes according to plan.

Matthew Cerrone, MetsBlog.com:

Today, three days in, having talked with insiders and reading too many reports, it’s obvious the Mets are clearly open to trading R.A. Dickey.

Payroll is going to go up next season, Jeff Wilpon said today; and, as good as Dickey has been, I don’t think Sandy Alderson wants to occupy future budgets with a potentially overpaid, 40-year-old knuckleballer.

The Mets like Dickey, they respect him, they’ll take him for a year, especially at $5 million, but they only want him here long term if it’s on their terms. It seems that isn’t happening, at least not yet, so the goal might be to move him before he throws a pitch in 2013 and is still at peak value.

Alderson told several media outlets today that taking Dickey into 2013 with just a one-year deal is not the club’s first choice, but he isn’t ruling it out. They could always sign him to an extension, or not, and again look to trade him next summer.

In the last day, though he initially wanted four years total, I’ve heard Dickey now wants a contract that covers only three years, and the Mets agree. However, the two sides continue to disagree about the overall value of the deal. There are reports indicating Dickey wants as much as $40 million, while the Mets may be offering just $25 million.

Alderson told media today that he thinks the situation is close to a resolution, because both sides have a pretty good understanding of where things stand after having so many conversations. In either case, he wants an answer within the next 10 days.

In the meantime, thanks to their work at the MLB Winter Meetings this week, the Mets are sitting on a number of deals for Dickey, according to Newsday’s David Lennon.

“The Mets will have legit trade offers to pick over,” a source with knowledge of the situation told me yesterday.

The consensus in baseball seems to be that teams in need of pitching, like the Royals, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Rangers, among others, are all sitting still, waiting to see what happens with free-agent Zack Greinke, who reports indicate could make a decision in the next few days.

The Mets have talked to all of these teams in the last week or so. However, I’m hearing today that the Mets continue to be underwhelmed by offers; and in some cases, they are being asked to part with their own top prospects in addition to Dickey.

“Can we make a trade?” Alderson asked rhetorically today, according to CBSSports.com. “Yeah, we can make a trade,” he answered.

It’s my understanding that the Blue Jays, Angels and Royals are most interested in Dickey. It’s also worth noting the Blue Jays have been interested in Jon Niese for more than a year. I also agree with Andy Martino of the Daily News who said the Rangers are worth watching in the event Greinke signs with the Dodgers. And, still, the Rays continue to be Alderson’s top competition, as they also have two pitchers to shop and are seeking a similar young hitter, which is why Niese might be Alderson’s only way to get an impact bat back in trade.

In the mean time, Terry Collins keeps saying, ‘The Mets aren’t shopping Dickey,’ rumors swirl, the league waits, Alderson talks about options, and the beat goes on…